PC finals round one

Before I get into things, let me expand on something I alluded to in the previous post - this is going to be the last tournament that I'm going to offer explicit tips for, unless I see any outstanding value in the WDF worlds. There's a few reasons for this - firstly, I feel there are much fewer spots of value, primarily due to the rule changes in what was my bread and butter set of events in the European Tour. While my overall volumes are actually up on last year, oddly seemingly mostly because of the Euro Tour, it does have the general feeling that with so many more games being between known/better players, the chances aren't there. Secondly, I don't really have the time these days to look at all the lines in detail, particularly on days when I need to do it - Thursday nights in particular are especially bad, Saturdays (especially during the football season) are also kind of bad, so I'm always seemingly rushed and maybe not putting enough into things as I should do. Finally, I'm typically betting more on the exchanges, which makes it harder to track what I'm actually doing, oddschecker or the bookie in question is more easily validated, seeing precisely what I got on the exchange which can move second to second is more hearsay. So, while I'll still look at events, and while I'll still be betting personally, I'm not going to say bet this much on this player. I'll just stick to giving my thoughts, and then letting the reader make up their own minds.

That said, let's get into Minehead and the last event before we know how the worlds will be seeded (and, as an aside, with it being rumoured that the worlds will be going to 128 in the near future, let's hope to fuck they don't ruin it by putting all 128 players into round one and giving us a stack of mismatches, eh?), and here's how I'm seeing things. The ranking is just how the players rank in terms of scoring in the dataset (May onwards) I'm using. It's not their seeding, their OOM ranking, their FRH ranking, it is just 1 = highest scoring, 2 = second highest scoring and so on (within the 64 players in the tournament).

So, with that said, here's what I'm going for in terms of bets:

0.1u Gilding 7/10 v Doets

0.1u Woodhouse 6/5 v Edhouse

0.1u Sedlacek 29/20 v Joyce

0.25u Scutt evs v Lukeman

0.1u Wright 7/5 v Gurney

0.1u Clemens 3/1 v Humphries

0.1u Taylor 13/8 v Smith

Was kind of close to a couple of others. Landman probably the closest. Sizings are generally small to account for the shorter races - winning the bull makes a fair difference and would make a fair few of these plays marginal at best.