Quarters

Alright,. That tip we had today went how we thought it might have done, but while we believe there's safety in numbers, we at least limited our liabilities. Let's blast through these as I don't have much time:

Menzies/Mansell - Market saying 2-1. It's kind of uncharted territory for both which makes it a bit weird, but I'm seeing Cammy as up above 70%. Not a huge amount. He's got a bit more in the longer numbers than the market suggests, but not enough to bet and we'll give Mickey enough credit here and say avoid the game.

Lukeman/Cross - This projects a tad more one sided, indicating Rob should come through 75% of the time. The market has it a tad tighter, again we'll give credit to Martin for how he's playing, and I'm not going to make an official play, but as has been the case for years, they may be sleeping on just how good Rob is.

Anderson/van Veen - Someone might want to fact check me on this, but I think this must be by far the longest game that Gian's been involved in ever? That might make a difference. Whether Gary can still ping for that long a game is also something that can make a difference. To go from 8-2 to 8-6 like he did today is alright if you only need to get to 10 and can fall over the line, but if you carry on and end up down 11-13 and still need five more legs, then we're talking. I've got close to 80/20. That feels excessive, but 0.25u Anderson 4/6 seems extremely automatic.

Wattimena/Littler - Christ, both these players got away with one tonight. Difference is how they played. Luke - great. Jermaine - not so much, This again looks very strong for one player, obviously Luke, split the difference between 75% and 80%. Market is saying 1/5 - that's excessive, but not unsurprising, and I don't think there is enough value the other way to stab at Wattimena in this one.

Will not be back for the semis as I am away this weekend.