Belgium rounds 1/2

Alright, draw is in, home nation qualifier is in, let's look at the first installment of what I hope isn't a massive rematch fest of a tour that is a shell of its former self:

Humphries v de Decker/Lovely - This one seems pretty darned straight forward. Great for Thomas to be here, but against Mike here, this looks around a sort of 75/25 game at the very minimum, quite possibly closer to 80/20, but in the next round, this seems a lot closer than I thought it would be, de Decker looking like well over 40/60, and on home territory, there could be a play here. Then again, I did suggest in the UK Open that Humphries might be overvalued against Searle, who he then twatted 10-0, so maybe I've got some sort of data issue that is undervaluing Luke? Who knows.

van den Bergh v Schindler/Long - Cool to see Jim here, but Schindler looks clearly more than 2-1, and frankly the only reason it's not over 3-1 is a relatively small recent sample where Jim has a massive consistency issue, so this looks like a clear showdown against the young kids, where Dimi might be around a 55/45 favourite.

Heta v Smith/Joyce - Nice to get a lot of data here, Smith/Joyce being one where it's clear as to what is going on, where Michael's maybe not quite at 60/40, but fairly close, and would be getting on to about 50/50, albeit heavily influenced by the most recent form.

Price v van Veen/Hurrell - Seems like a fairly easy first round call, Hurrell has talent but he has only a 25-30% chance against someone of Gian's calibre, who, primarily based on current form, may be a razor thin favourite against Gerwyn, and only maybe 45/55 if we ignore the most current form. There's really not much between them.

Cross v Smith/Gijbels - Sybren is someone who we've seen a few times in various events, primarily the WDF worlds where he had a decent run, albeit didn't make a great impact, and against someone like Ross Smith, clearly in the top few players who weren't seeded through to the last 32, is likely to get murdered here. Cross would be better in round two, but at a tad under 60/40, it's clearly not prohibitive, and Ross has a great deal of equity in terms of getting to Sunday, as you'd expect against anyone.

Wright v Menzies/Campbell - This first round game is a real fun one between players who, without trying to be negative, can quite reasonably be described as volatile. Matt's a really good stage player, and the numbers only show him at around a 60/40 dog status and trending in the right direction, so this may be closer than many might think, then against Wright, who could be anywhere on any given day, he may well be a dog, with Peter trending really good of late and probably being 60/40 the other day.

Bunting v Wattimena/de Backer - This is what still remains cool about the Euro Tour, we see complete random players that I know nothing about. Patrick has got through five rounds to get here, beating former card holder Robbie Knops in the final round and best described as "a name I know" Luc Bogaert in the round before, but while he didn't get seriously threatened in any game (his worst loss was 6-3), he didn't average better than 82 in any game either. Against someone as red hot at Jermaine I think he's fucked. In round two, Jermaine is really, really, close. Closer to 50% than 45%. We've talked for ages as to how well Stephen is playing. Wattimena is also playing at an elite level.

Noppert v Gurney/Tricole - Daryl is a favourite in the first game, as you'd expect, it's around 2-1 and he's trending a touch better in more recent samples than over larger samples, so maybe Thibault is not having the greatest start to the season. If Daryl plays Danny, it looks like a standard more than 60%, but not quite 2-1 favoured line for Noppert, which doesn't seem in any way unreasonable.

Littler v Searle/Pilgrim - Darryl is good. Ryan is just that much better. This is showing at better than 80/20 in every sample. Searle is shit hot. Now against Littler? It's around 70/30. Pretty standard.

Anderson v Woodhouse/Waegemans - Someone I know nothing about! It appears he has Challenge Tour winnings less than my bar tab for the month, and did get into the BDO worlds about a decade ago as a random qualifier, losing to Gary Robson. OK then. Can't gauge too much from that other than Luke'll be reyt, and should lose well more than 75% of the time. Kind of the draw you want a bit of a warm up game for, but the draw says no.

Chisnall v Pietreczko/Dennant - Great to see Matt getting into one of these, although against Ricardo in a field where he seemingly does his best work, I'm not sure how it'll go, although on just the pure numbers this seems deceptively close, and in recent times, although not on the greatest samples, Dennant seems better. If Ricardo was to play Dave, this looks like an approaching but not quite 60/40 game for Chizzy, but this is a really weird section all round.

Aspinall v Edhouse/Bates - Back to all established card holders, which is what we like. Longer data favours Edhouse, more recent data favours Owen and drags things just under 60/40 in favour of our European Champion. If Ritchie was to play Nathan, it looks more like 60/40 the other way, i.e. in favour of the Stockport native, and it might be slightly more as he does seem to be in a bit more form in things that aren't counting to the stats (i.e. the Premier League).

van Gerwen v Rock/Krcmar - It's a real shame Boris dropped off the tour. Great player, but just wasn't getting it done. Looks about a 3-1 thing to me - that doesn't seem absurd, sure Krcmar can show up, but Rock is a great player. Rock against van Gerwen? This is tight. Super, super tight. We're talking 51/49 tight, and there's no obvious circumstances that make me think that something's not right. Michael is favoured, but not by much. Not at all.

Wade v van Barneveld/Crabtree - Barney against Cam is a decent young versus old one. Where the numbers say Crabtree should win. Now lets caveat this, it is based strongly on recent form, and there is a big difference in consistency, so maybe in context Barney is the better player (duh), but let's not just think "ZOMG five time world champion win" in this one. If it was Barney that Wade faced, I'm getting James at a gnat's over 60% - again, this seems fine, he's just got to another major final so is clearly playing well.

Clayton v Nijman/Schweyen - Francois' someone we know a fair bit about, although almost entirely from his WDF worlds run where he got all the way to the semis before being obliterated by Shane McGuirk, he's obviously not bad, but against Wessel, one of the more dangerous floaters in the first round draw, this is trouble. In round two? Nijman's projecting 60/40. Better than that actually. Jonny has looked alright in 2025, and Wessel has been struggling to punch a ticket on stage, so let's bear that in mind.

Dobey v van Duijvenbode/Labanauskas - All known games here, although Darius has been off the tour for a bit - that said, it is with enough recent data that makes us think that he is going to get completely murdered by Dirk. We are talking not pretty shit here. Dirk against Chris? It's projecting pretty close. I'd have thought Dobey would be a bit more ahead, but he's not.