Sunday, 4 October 2026

Final

So we have the number 2 in the world based on scoring over the last twelve months at 96.53, against the number 3 in the world at 96.29. That for me will make for a more exciting final than if we had the guy that's over 99 - yes it might have ended up being good anyway, and if we were to have had somewhat of a repeat of Littler/Price from last year (not that, given the bracket, that was possible) I don't think anyone would have said no, but an evenly matched duel between two elite players is good stuff. Over the full data this rates 52% Humphries. Over just the last six+ months it's 56% Humphries, but then over the last three+ months it's 66% Price, which gives a weighted average of 53-47 in favour of the Iceman. This kind of makes sense if you look at a rolling average graphic I have. I won't repeat it here, but it shows Luke steadily ahead on a past 60 days set, with a bit of a spell for Price in between the UK Open and Matchplay, before Humphries jumps ahead nicely. However, Price takes the lead back from around the start of September (i.e. starting from samples which include something like all of July/August and rolling onwards) and doesn't relinquish it from there. What does this show? Is Humphries the better player? Yes. Is it by much? No. Is Price playing better darts right now? Maybe. Who's playing the better darts in this tournament? Probably Humphries.

Frankly this Dev Tour race is more interesting. As it's the one before the (youth) worlds we've got a lot more of a varied lineup than usual - nobody from far flung places has done a great deal yet, but it's always good to see. Obviously Bialecki has the Slam spot by miles, but the races for cards and (senior) worlds spots are super tight and could go any number of ways, although if someone like van den Herik/Beeton/Self goes on a tear in the next couple of hours they can make a very strong claim for both.

I'll just do updated FRH rankings now.

1 Luke Littler
2 Gian van Veen
3 WHOEVER WINS THE FINAL
4 WHOEVER LOSES THE FINAL (up one/down one if Price wins, unchanged otherwise)
5 James Wade (UP 1)
6 Wessel Nijman (DOWN 1)
7 Jonny Clayton (UP 1)
8 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)
9 Ross Smith (UP 1)
10 Danny Noppert (UP 1)
11 Josh Rock (DOWN 1)
12 Nathan Aspinall (UP 3)
13 Gary Anderson (DOWN 1)
14 Luke Woodhouse (DOWN 1)
15 Chris Dobey (DOWN 1)
16 Jermaine Wattimena (UP 2)
17 Stephen Bunting
18 Krzysztof Ratajski (DOWN 2)
19 Michael van Gerwen
20 Dirk van Duijvenbode (NEW)

Joyce is now up to 24, Zonneveld to 28. That's your lot for today.

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