Sunday 3 September 2017

Maastricht final session

Nice to have a long shot hit to cover other losses

Michael van Gerwen v Daryl Gurney - Gurney's 5/1 which would ordinarily be a Gurney bet against anyone in the world, van Gerwen included, but Gurney's not really looked at it so far - only two legs won in under fifteen darts against Aspinall, and only four out of six against West in the second round. He has hit two twelve darters across those two games, but will need more of those against van Gerwen, who steamrollered Anderson. He wasn't great against Jeffrey de Zwaan, and I think it'll need van Gerwen to revert to that game and Gurney to step it up, which could happen, but it seems rare.

Michael Smith v Robert Owen - Owen's now properly in uncharted territory, and has little to lose here. Statistically he's not been great, with only six out of eighteen won legs in fifteen darts or less, but that has improved round by round. Smith won five straight against Cullen to get here, but hasn't been in top gear really - he should come through, but with a line at around 80/20 I'm not enthused to bet either side.

Peter Wright v Krzysztof Ratajski - Ratajski became only the second player all season on the European Tour to hit three twelve darters and not need more than fifteen darts in any other leg (van Gerwen v Reyes in Jena), and if he plays like that and Wright continues to be mediocre, the Pole wins. Given he also managed 5/6 in fifteen darts against Lennon, it's no fluke (only the two against Klaasen mind you), while Wright has been rank average - only one leg in under fifteen darts against Jim Walker, and just the three earlier against Cross, whose game seemed off. Seems like an alright underdog punt at the price - 0.25u Ratajski 18/5.

John Henderson v Steve Beaton - Henderson won the last five legs to pull away from Mike de Decker, while Beaton was involved in a close one against Martin Schindler, while the oddsmakers put this close to evens, Beaton just having the tiniest of edges. It's not one I want to rush to bet, if there is value I think it'd be on Hendo, who also has the slight edge in the metrics I monitor, it's not quite enough to bet on one that could come down to who wins the bull.

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