Sunday, 17 September 2017

World Grand Prix draw

It's out, and given the limited number of seeds in relation to the field size, it's thrown up quite a few interesting first round ties - the seeds can easily get a top 10 player in the opening round, as Adrian Lewis has found with Daryl Gurney, similar with Dave Chisnall and Jelle Klaasen, while it also offers the opportunity for lesser or out of form players to draw another and have a chance of getting a run going, as Alan Norris and Justin Pipe have (well, until they likely meet Michael van Gerwen in the second round). The double in format also gives opportunities for surprise results, particularly with the first few rounds being on the short side, particularly the opener being a rapid race to two sets - if your opponent is getting away pretty well, it only takes one leg of yours where you kick off with three misses at double and you're out pretty quickly.

I'm going to post up the chances of each player winning a set on their throw if it was a normal format - as such, I'll also list each player's double percentage this season based on the table of ochepedia's mentioned previously (thanks for replying with North's figure by the way), and you can think about how to adjust winning percentages from there. As an aside, I'd think that the figures for starting will be higher than these - you can always aim for your favourite double to start, and can switch if you miss in such a way that you block things horribly (mostly thinking those players who have a flat angle of entry who like tops).

Michael van Gerwen (82.2% to win set on throw, 43.1% doubles) v John Henderson (29.1%, 38.9%)
Alan Norris (72%, 33%) v Justin Pipe (42%, 26.3%)
Raymond van Barneveld (63.8%, 38.5%) v Kyle Anderson (51.2%, 37.5%)
Steve Beaton (50.3%, 40.7%) v Rob Cross (64%, 36.6%)
Dave Chisnall (67.4%, 37.6%) v Jelle Klaasen (46%, 37.7%)
Robert Thornton (42.7%, 31.8%) v Kim Huybrechts (69.5%, 37%)
Adrian Lewis (75.3%, 38.5%) v Daryl Gurney (37.9%, 38.1%)
Joe Cullen (59.9%, 40.7%) v Darren Webster (55.3%, 35%)
Gary Anderson (94.3%, 40.9%) v Richard North (11.5%, 31.9%)
Simon Whitlock (74.4%, 39%) v Christian Kist (39.5%, 36.5%)
Michael Smith (65.9%, 36.8%) v Gerwyn Price (48.3%, 34.2%)
Benito van de Pas (51.9%, 41%) v Cristo Reyes (63.3%, 41.8%)
Mensur Suljovic (64.2%, 38.3%) v Ian White (51.1%, 44%)
Steve West (50.7%, 36.8%) v James Wade (62.3%, 38%)
Peter Wright (73.8%, 41.3%) v Stephen Bunting (40.7%, 33.8%)
Mervyn King (70.3%, 39%) v Ronny Huybrechts (43.4%, 34.5%)

Early thoughts (no bets yet, will wait for data from Riesa and there's very few lines up at this stage, although scanning bwin I'll point out if anything looks OK):
- Henderson is going to need to be on top of his game to stand a chance, but looking at those numbers it's not completely drawing dead, even if you assume that the difference in doubling knocks Henderson's chances of winning his set down to, say, 25%, that's still a one in sixteen chance if he wins the bull, ignoring the possibility of breaking the van Gerwen set.
- Big chance for both of these to get a few extra grand, Norris to solidify his top 16 spot and Pipe to stick around in the top 32, both seem quite bad at doubles and aren't in the best of form so this could end up in a deciding set.
- Bit of a big game here, neither can be that happy with the draw, Raymond should have an edge but it's not by that much.
- Two form players clashing here, should again be quite even, think Cross has the small edge but if Beaton can get going then anything goes.
- Interesting one between two players who score well but who can double badly (ironically their stats are real similar), will just be a case of who's able to keep things consistent for the small race to two.
- Another couple of players who are a bit inconsistent - Thornton's got course and distance, but really shouldn't be here at all, Huybrechts' form has been quite mediocre as well. If he hits doubles well enough at both ends he should have too much, but it's a big if.
- Lewis against Gurney in round one, jesus. Jackpot comes up good on my stats a lot as he's either unplayable, or really mediocre (his games yesterday seem like a perfect example of it), Gurney averages better in losing legs. Bookies have it even, which given Gurney's form and homefield advantage seems not too unreasonable, but this should still be a Lewis bet. Probably.
- Cullen and Webster are both playing decent in what looks like one of the closest games of the first round. Cullen's double figures could be the difference, it's a bit better, nobody questions Webster's scoring, he's just got to be in a position to use it.
- North is here but probably one and done, Anderson should just be far too good. On what I've seen of North, he simply doesn't score highly enough to threaten.
- Decent draw for both Whitlock and Kist, Whitlock looking to solidify a place in the top 16 while Kist is knocking on the door of the top 32. Whitlock could be a bet, he seems to have more of an edge than the current line suggests.
- Smith/Price could be tasty. Two confidence players, difference could be form, Smith's upswinging a bit whereas Price isn't quite at his peak level.
- Benito badly needs a result here, and Reyes isn't the player he'd want to face at this stage. It's the only game between players with over 40% on doubling, so it shouldn't be a cagey affair, it may well be a close one though, with Benito likely drawing some confidence from his recent European Tour run.
- Another game against solid, consistent players who can double in Suljovic and White, White is very much live in this one, although Suljovic has answered a lot of questions that were flying around in terms of form yesterday to ease through to the Cardiff exbo semi finals.
- Wade isn't seeded but got an alright draw, thing is with Wade is that even with alright draws today he's not going to be a name that'll scare anyone. Could be worth a West punt, he performed great here last year.
- Wright can't be too displeased with this draw, but he's not that big a favourite that he can mess around missing doubles as he did again today, Bunting's good enough on his day to pressure, and he'll know he needs to make a TV run sooner rather than later.
- Have mentioned that King has been playing well a few times on here of recent, he cannot complain at getting Ronny Huybrechts, who's a fair bit weaker in all aspects of the game than King, the line I see doesn't even have this as a 2-1 game, it might be a King bet.

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