Sunday, 10 September 2017

Mannheim final session

Much like yesterday, particularly in the evening session, there were a few one-sided affairs in the last 16, but our quarter final lineup is set, and here's what I make of it:

Ian White - Rob Cross: Cross has been one of the standout performers so far this weekend, only dropping five legs and checking out eleven out of twelve legs in under fifteen darts, three of which were twelve darters all coming at crucial times to ice each of his matches, but White also hit a critical twelve darter in his win over Daryl Gurney in the deciding leg. He's been steadier and very solid, the master computer is reckoning White takes this 31% of the time, Cross 42% of the time with the remainders being deciding legs - Cross on the betting markets is slightly better than a 60-40 favourite so that line looks plum, no bets here. Should be tight, think Cross just nicks it.

Benito van de Pas - Vincent van der Voort: van de Pas didn't need to do too much against Jamie Caven, the only legs he lost were twelve darters from nowhere but in the rest Caven didn't really pressure, against Webster he stepped it up somewhat. van der Voort's had the extra game, easily beating Gilding with just one fifteen darter, winning from a lost position against King with a good last five legs, and earlier he whitewashed Ronny Huybrechts, although he only had the two legs in under fifteen darts, the final leg being a twelve when the match was done. The odds have Benito as a favourite, but I have van der Voort having a slight edge instead. This is over a year's worth of data - recent form would make you think that Benito's not playing so well while Vincent's back seems fine and he's getting better. I think it's worth a small play - 0.25u van der Voort 5/4.

Simon Whitlock - Michael Smith: The only game where the top seeds in their sections meet, Whitlock had no trouble against Daniel Larsson, he played better against Aspinall today, with a clean run of four fifteen dart legs to pull ahead enough to clinch the game. Smith survived a scare against Jamie Lewis where every leg went with throw, and took advantage of Joe Cullen having an off day, playing alright after the first comedy leg to claim a 3-1 lead, then didn't need any fifteen darters to grab the last three. Smith's installed as a small favourite, while my stats have it as a coinflip, maybe with Whitlock having the slight edge. This could go the distance, perhaps even to a decider, I'm just not feeling Whitlock's form quite enough to warrant a bet.

Michael van Gerwen - Jelle Klaasen: van Gerwen's lost just two legs so far, it could have been more but Price let van Gerwen break him in six visits twice, if he cleans those up as he should (he had six clear darts at double in the two combined) it's 4-4 and he has the throw and anything can happen. Jelle stuffed Kyle Anderson 6-1 earlier but didn't have to play well to do it, don't know what was up with Anderson today because, while I didn't watch the game, his numbers against Kim Huybrechts were great, and Klaasen got through a tricky opener against Jamie Bain in a topsy turvy game where if either player was able to put a run together of holds in fifteen darts they claim it easy. van Gerwen is obviously a huge favourite, and the line looks to be set just about right where we can't print money by betting the favourite, or go micro and hope for the upset.

Still yet to hear anything official in relation to Taylor playing Dublin (I think the scenario right now is it's either him or Thornton that plays as a result of his decision, enough money's been made by those near the Pro Tour cutoff that Thornton can't now back door his way in), meanwhile elsewhere the BDO are having a decent sized event as they build up to the World Masters, and I should also mention Paul Hogan won that Red Dragon sponsored Champion of Champions event, such a shame that he's not interested in punting at the PDC circuit.

Doubt I post anything before the semis/final, the only game that would be of real betting interest would be the first semi final assuming van Gerwen doesn't get upset, NFL's on which'll distract my attention on Sunday evenings.

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