Wednesday 24 July 2019

Matchplay QF bets

Seems everyone got eliminated yesterday, let's take a peek at who's left:

Smith/King - Market is 2/5 Smith. This seems about right. King, based on year long stats, is just under 35%, which isn't amazing value in any case, but let's factor in the conditions. I live up in the north west and it's fucking unbearable right now. King's done incredibly well these last two games, but I have to think that the extended format once you get to the quarters will surely be a bridge too far. If he can overcome it, good luck to the lad, I'm not going to recommend tiny edges on the off chance he doesn't fall apart in the mid-late stages.

Durrant/Wade - Oh boy, this one should be fun. I'm sure I've mentioned previously that if there's one player that I think Glen is comparable to in the PDC in terms of style, it's probably Wade, I'm really looking forward to this match. I'm going to have to go with a small nibble on James here, 0.25u Wade 6/5, over the course of a Matchplay quarter final length game I'm getting Wade at 55%, that's got to be worth the shot at odds against, Wade's been taken to overtime both games and is surely playing at a high enough level that he'll at least be able to drag it out into his backyard - while Glen's played long games in the past, there's not been too many of them, and it'll have been exclusively at Lakeside, this is the unknown.

Cross/Bunting - 1u Cross 1/4, Stephen's fun ends here. Cross is simply playing far too well and is nearly at 90% on my projections.

Wright/Gurney - 0.5u Wright 1/2, Peter's just absolutely killing it over the last two weeks. Daryl rates as an enormous underdog on the projections, as always I'll reference the consistency, and he's actually again averaging nearly three points higher on losing legs in this event than in winning legs. That's because Evans and Brown let him off. Wright won't do that.

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