Tuesday, 23 July 2019

Matchplay round 2 bets

Not a great deal in terms of shocks on day 2/3, so no post since day 1 - I suppose the only thing that was a bit odd is Chisnall losing to Hopp, and Cullen not winning a leg, everything else was more or less just seeds or favourites advancing, which isn't too pretty given we've been on underdogs. What for round 2?

Smith/Hopp - no bet, Hopp didn't play badly, Smith was maybe a touch fortunate to get by Hughes. We can get north of 2/1 on Hopp, nearly value but Smith's up near 65% so not quite enough edge.

Wade/Suljovic - 0.25u Wade 4/5, the market has this fairly even and I don't know why, Mensur hasn't done a great deal this year whereas James has, this looks more like a 2/1 game to me.

Anderson/King - 0.25u King 11/4, we're going to stay on King after his first impressive display, Anderson frankly wasn't great against Noppert, and just got let off by Danny missing many doubles. Think Mervyn's about 40% here, only concern is that third on it may be a bit hotter than when he opened on Saturday, but it's only a race to 11 so it shouldn't be that bad.

van Gerwen/Durrant - no bet, the market's correctly assessing that MvG isn't playing great and that Durrant is quality, and put him at 9/4 - I'd probably edge it slightly closer, but not enough that we can start thinking about betting on Glen. It certainly isn't a "ZOMG van Gerwen is shorter than 1/3 pile on" situation.

Gurney/Brown - 0.25u Brown 21/10, Keegan's pretty damn close to Gurney in overall quality, he's within a point per turn over the course of the year. As he's got a fair bit of inconsistency, his winning average is actually higher than Daryl's and he projects as a favourite as a result, but let's not go too crazy.

Bunting/White - no bet, Bunting's doing just about enough that he probably steals this one time out of three, which is exactly where the market's at. This is despite winning by the narrowest of margins in the last round, and that he plays someone who won by completely the opposite.

Cross/Ratajski - no bet, I'd have thought that Krzysztof being near 3/1 would be a bet against anyone in the world given how good he is, but then again, Cross is just that good. Line looks extremely accurate.

Wright/Whitlock - 1u Wright 2/7, Whitlock wasn't awful yesterday and Wright did look a bit sluggish, but recent form is more than one game and Peter has incredible recent form, he also ought to win this well over 85% of the time on season long data. This looks safe.

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