Saturday, 27 July 2019

Quick thoughts on the semi finals

No bets on the Durrant/Smith match. I find it very hard to separate the two on season long stats, but one thing you might want to consider is that Smith has the most twelve dart legs of anyone in the tournament to date with nine - Durrant only has two. Sure, Durrant has the most 13-15 dart legs in the event that's left (Bunting actually has a couple more), but will the ability Smith has to put in a power scoring leg more often make the difference? The model just based on the Matchplay rates Smith as a substantial favourite, but I'm not going to start betting based on such a small sample size.

That small sample size for Cross and Gurney strongly favours Cross. We're talking 85/15 here, over the course of the tournament Cross has finished 29 of his 37 legs won in fifteen darts or better, inclusive of seven twelve dart or better legs, this is compared to Gurney's 23 from 37, where only five were in twelve or less. Gurney is maintaining his stupidly high consistency level, his losing average in the tournament is only a quarter of a point lower than his winning average, and his losing average is comparable to Cross's, give or take half a point. Cross does however have a four point lead on winning average, and over the course of the season Cross scores over five points higher per winning leg turn than Gurney does (and a point higher on losing leg turns), which indicates both players are doing comparably well to how they've done season long. Season long stats rate Cross to win 90% of the time, so I've got no real problem in 0.5u Cross 8/15, I think with this sort of edge I really ought to go the full unit, but we've been stung by Gurney three times in this tournament. Heck, that price isn't much better than what we got on Wright yesterday, and we saw how that ended up (well, those watching live did, anyway).

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