Sunday 10 September 2023


Small gain made with Ratajski coming through against Chisnall, Menzies' run unfortunately ends at the last 16 stage, but profit is profit, we're going to have a new winner for the season (which looked somewhat likely given the number of players that have given this one a miss), who will it be?

Ratajski/Noppert looks incredibly tight. I can't separate them at all. The market is shading things incredibly slightly in favour of Noppert, but with Ratajski not being any longer than 5/4, that isn't really what we're wanting in terms of edge.

van Duijvenbode/Rock arguably throws the two best players in the tournament together, neither of which has won at this level yet, although both have been beaten finalists on the Euro Tour already this year. Again I find it extremely hard to separate them, maybe Rock is better by a tiny amount, but it's really nothing, and the markets aren't giving anything more than a tiny amount of odds against either way (on Dirk).

Gilding/Bunting looks to be priced about right as well, with Stephen typically around 8/11, I'm seeing him with just under 60% winning chances, which with Gilding looking very ordinary in this event might represent if not a great bet, at least one that won't be -EV. We're ignoring from a tipping standpoint though.

Finally we have two wildcards in Raman/Plaisier, here the oddsmakers are favouring Wesley, opening up the sample a bit to get more size on Plaisier this looks about right, and the line feels about right, with most bookies lining up at around 4/7 on Wesley, some a tick shorter, some a tick longer, none of them appearing too far off the mark.

So we have no bets, and as usual with the field at towards an elite level, when we think they've got the lines for the quarters about right, then we can usually infer that there's not going to be any value on the semis or the final. I suppose one thing to note is that a win for Raman would throw him up into the provisional worlds spots, and he's not going to get too many better spots to win 2.5k in one game - and potentially more. This'll be a fun session, see you all on the other side.

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