Sunday 10 September 2023

ET11 R3

Nice pickup yesterday with Menzies knocking out Wright, seems like a lot of people were on this one as during a quick check of my accumulator at half time yesterday, I was offered a decent 25% return on a cash out as he was backed in at least on 365 from 2/1 all the way to 6/5, which is serious movement in a two horse race. Still, we got on at the good price and let's move on to the last 16:

Chisnall/Ratajski - Dave had little problem dispatching Luke Woodhouse in decent style, Krzysztof faced a little bit more resistance against Ricky Evans but was also playing well so this should be a good one. Appears very tight on paper as well - I can barely split them, Dave's a touch more consistent, I think there's just enough here to have a small nibble, 0.1u Ratajski 6/4 on 365.

Menzies/Noppert - Cameron beat Peter as mentioned above, a tad inconsistent but a win is a win, while Danny needed all 11 legs to beat Dylan Slevin, not looking great in the winning legs but keeping the pressure on in the others. I'm seeing a very small edge for Noppert, however in the larger data we're seeing the reverse in that he is much more inconsistent and Menzies is actually outscoring Danny by a clear point overall in my sample. Looks like the same as above with a consistent price everywhere, 0.1u Menzies 6/4.

van Duijvenbode/de Sousa - Dirk was made to work in a local clash with Roy van de Griendt, not getting the needed break until leg 9 with all the others being on throw, while de Sousa also won by the odd break in an occasional scrappy encounter with Mike de Decker. Dirk seems a solid favourite here, around 60-65% there or there abouts, so a price of 8/15 across the board with the vig involved there's no interest for betting either way here.

Rock/Searle - Josh brought his B-game against Jules van Dongen, looking maybe the best player yesterday with a comfortable 6-2 win, while Ryan was maybe a touch off his best but still too good for Kevin Doets. Rock is favoured, but it's only in the high 50% bracket so not an enormous skill differential, Josh is no shorter than 4/7 which is a non-starter, and Searle being typically 11/8 looks correct, but with no edge.

Hempel/Gilding - Florian continues what might be a touch more than a mini-resurgence at this stage, eliminating a tough opponent in Damon Heta fairly comfortably, albeit it does look like Heta missed quite a few doubles which doesn't help, while Andrew also only dropped the two legs in his game with Razma, but did not look good and didn't win a single leg in fifteen darts, so will need to improve quickly here. Gilding is projected a bit more than two times in three, but I think with their respective form guides and in particular Andrew being poor yesterday, that an otherwise tempting 8/11 on Gilding isn't quite enough for me to take the punt.

Bunting/Schindler - Stephen needed to find a break in the decider and dodge some match darts against Joe Cullen but did, while Martin also needed a decider but shut out Daryl Gurney with a five visit kill there in another tight game. No reason to think this one will be any different, inconsistency makes it hard to quantify either way, maybe Martin is ever so slightly better but with the markets saying it's a flip or, if anything, putting Bunting at evens with Martin just odds on, we're not interested here.

Humphries/Plaisier - Luke was given a pretty decent test by Ricardo Pietreczko, needing a break in the last leg and getting one, while Wesley was surprisingly comfortable against Ross Smith, who got a four visit hold to start but then not getting more than one leg for the rest of the match. Still really hard to say exactly where Plaisier is at, the market if anything thinks he's a bit worse than I think he likely is with prices of longer than 3/1 available, but against someone of Luke's calibre I tend to think that if it is an underestimate of his chances, it's not by a great deal.

Raman/Aspinall - Final game, Brian had a real good finish to the match with Cross, taking out 112 with Rob waiting on D18 for the match then firing in a twelve darter to break in the decider, while Nathan was in a spot of bother down 3-0 against Gian van Veen, before firing off the remaining six legs, aided by Gian missing a few doubles. Aspinall is going to be far too strong here, the typically available 4/1 on Raman looking perfect.

So just the two, you can maybe add Gilding if you think yesterday's game was a blip, but for now I'm off to catch up on the Asian Tour and anything else that's been going on this weekend.

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