Thursday 21 September 2023

Hungary round 1

The key thing is in terms of the Grand Prix race is that there's three spots still open, Dobey and Rydz have 14/15 but aren't here, Pietreczko and van Veen have 16/17 and are, van Veen is 1500 behind so needs to beat his seed (Aspinall, so not the greatest but certainly not the worst) to have a chance, in reality it's going to be more as Ricardo's got a great draw, while Gian has one of the trickier ones. Luke Woodhouse can force his way in but is needing a quarter final, a path of home nation qualifier, Cross and then Wright/Razma/Waites not being a horrible setup in fairness, although I don't know how the countback looks as that will likely only pull him level with Pietreczko in the first place. Will blast through round one quickly.

Murnan/Wattimena - Feels like it should be a moderately trivial win for Jermaine, not really pushed on after flashes in 2022, but Joe's been a bit anonymous as well, I'm getting low to mid 70% range for Wattimena and the typical pricing is 2/5, so no interest here.

Andersen/Ostlund - Real hard to work out what to make from this one. The market has it really close. I'm not overly sure why, Anton is making a bit of a substantial step up in this one, and while he's looked alright in brief moments, it's no more than that against someone who is a card holder who will surely have more experience in these sorts of spots and be able to hold his nerve, despite not really being overly convincing at the top 128 level. 0.25u Andersen evs

Bialecki/Vida - Vida peaked in the last round of the home nation quali but only just scraped over an 80 average against a slightly better known Borbely, which really shouldn't cut it against someone of Bialecki's quality, at the same time I don't want to take my shot on a non card holder at 1/6 or 1/7.

Razma/Waites - Razma's been a bit quiet this year and may be holding a bit of a false ranking position, Waites has also been quiet, so maybe an opportunity for both. Hard to split this one, I'd give Madars the smallest of edges, the market typically agrees with that assessment.

Boulton/Mitchell - Associate member bitchfight! Both of these came through it, held way back in May, Scott actually put up some alright numbers in it but it's way too long ago to be seriously relevant, Andy's played more at a higher level so feels like he should be favoured, albeit we've got enough numbers on Mitchell to make us think it shouldn't be by a great deal. Scott coming in at evens with Boulton just odds on comes as no surprise.

Williams/Veenstra - The Challenge Tour sensation has kind of cooled off quite a bit this year, which is a surprise, while Flyers has looked not a single bit out of place at this level after finally getting his card, the result being Veenstra being a lock for the worlds while Scott has work to do and could really use this win. The numbers actually have this one moderately close and oddly favour Williams. That surprised me, so I went to bet, but the market agreed. Weird.

de Decker/Gilding - Two players who we will be seeing in the pot for the Grand Prix draw, cutting to the chase this should be competitive but Andrew has a bit of an edge, call it 55/45, some markets can't split them, others just give the edge to Goldfinger, either way we're leaving it.

van Veen/Dolan - Actual pressure game for Gian, Brendan doesn't have a great deal to play for but doesn't give games away, looks 65/35 to me, which makes me think the market is overvaluing GvV slightly (understandable), but not enough to even start to consider a punt on Dolan in this one.

Jagicza/Woodhouse - The qualifier didn't look too bad in the qualifier - last three rounds slamming in averages of 92, 88 and 88 without a great deal of help from opponents, so maybe not a complete cakewalk for Luke here, while I think the win may be a bit out of reach, 7/1 seems really quite harsh and I wouldn't blink if you had a bit of a nibble on an alternative handicap market, getting a couple of legs at least doesn't seem out of the question for Gabor in this one.

Owen/Smith - This ought to be pretty comfortable for Smudger, Robert's looked ok in places but shouldn't be able to put an enormous amount of pressure on the European champion, who I'm rating in the low 70's in terms of win probabilities. The market is overvaluing Ross a tad, 7/2 on Stack Attack is a bit disrespectful and also not amazing value at the same time.

Rodriguez/Kovacs - Patrik's had a couple of appearances in our database and hasn't completely stunk the place out, despite not being able to make much headway in terms of winning legs, so against Rowby, whose form has cratered since getting to the final of one of these and qualifying for majors not too long ago, it comes as no real surprise that we can't get better than 2/1 on Kovacs here. Seems like a trap game for the casual who'll just punt RJR thinking he's still playing well. Don't make that mistake.

O'Connor/Wade - Ought to be good this. James is playing with a bit more freedom than he has in quite some time, while Willie isn't putting in bad darts either. Wade is the better player, split the difference between 55% and 60% for me, so maybe the market is taking a tinier bit more of a favourable edge on the Machine, but we're not looking at WOC at only 6/4.

Gurney/de Sousa - Two major champions in round one, that's the Euro Tour in 2023 for you. Daryl seems like he's in fine form, Jose maybe not so much, but the projections are still only giving Gurney the small edge at around 55/45. No real value in the markets, if anything they may be pushing Daryl a bit too much but we can't look at the Portuguese number one seriously.

Rafferty/Bunting - Stephen will want to go one better than last time out, while Nathan is still really looking for a first big breakout performance on a senior stage. Bunting looks way too strong here and the lines putting him shorter than 1/3 look perfectly reasonable to me.

Pietreczko/Major - Ricardo needs this win to ask the question of van Veen, and he should frankly have more than enough here against what looks like the middle of the three qualifiers from Hungary here. Some of the odds on predictions may be pushing it slightly, but not by much.

Clemens/Barry - Seems like it's every Euro Tour where Gabriel has a tricky first round tie, and here's no exception. I can't really pick a winner - the market favours Clemens, which is fine, but not by a great deal, so with Keane only at 11/10 I can't recommend a play.

Back tomorrow evening or Saturday morning for round two.

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