I'm just going to post round one at this stage. Too many permutations for round two or later, no rush for those at this stage either. Two big caveats:
1 - THESE DO NOT FACTOR IN THE DOUBLE IN FORMAT. Frankly my data model is entirely setup for straight in double out. At this level of player, I don't think it's going to make an enormous amount of difference, everyone's likely to be somewhere in the one in three to mid 40% range on doubling in (it should be a bit higher than doubling out for obvious reasons), which I think is a tight enough range not to make any serious modifications. If you do have reliable data (and I don't think you have) and you are seeing a big difference in any game feel free to shift things by a percent or two. I really can't see it making much more of a difference than that.
2 - THESE DO NOT MODEL THE EXACT MATCH FORMAT EITHER. This is the only tournament with a first to two set format, and with first to four or more sets with no tiebreak. For round one, I'm going to pretend this is best of 15 legs (which is the longest the match can go), and then when we get deep, just use the projections as if there was a tie break. These will push up the better player SLIGHTLY, but you would think the better player will be in general a better doubler as well, so I think those more or less cancel out.
In any case, here we go. Use at your own risk.
Luke Humphries 68-32 Nathan Aspinall
Martin Schindler 59-41 Krzysztof Ratajski
Chris Dobey 69-31 Cameron Menzies
Rob Cross 53-47 Wessel Nijman
Stephen Bunting 71-29 Niko Springer
Danny Noppert 52-48 Jermaine Wattimena
James Wade 63-37 Joe Cullen
Gary Anderson 79-21 Raymond van Barneveld
Luke Littler 67-33 Gian van Veen
Peter Wright 30-70 Mike De Decker
Gerwyn Price 58-42 Ryan Searle
Josh Rock 81-19 Ryan Joyce
Michael van Gerwen 45-55 Dirk van Duijvenbode
Ross Smith 67-33 Daryl Gurney
Jonny Clayton 68-32 Andrew Gilding
Damon Heta 70-30 Luke Woodhouse
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