Evening,
Nice of the PDC to push the time they say the draw will show up on Facebook back at quarter of an hour increments, only for it to never arrive and a quick F5 on their own site to show that it's done. Match by match analysis to come (will consider it in pods of four players, so eight posts in total), but for now, I've shoved the stats into the master computer, ran every single permutation of matches against each other and come up with the chances of each player winning their quarter, half of the draw, and the thing outright.
Caveat emptor - this considers all competitive darts since September. It's not filtered by recency, as I don't want a bunch of divide by zero errors on Phil, it doesn't take into account consistency and is only considering winning legs, and doesn't take into account things like Adie being injured, Jelle being injured (although it obviously factors in competitive games he's played while injured) and form. Where players are grouped in later rounds, they are still sorted in order of winning chances.
First quarter:
van Gerwen 74.05%
van Barneveld 12.79%
Taylor 8.22%
Whitlock 2.17%
Cullen 1.09%
Anderson 1.07%
Price 0.41%
Bunting 0.19%
Second quarter:
Lewis 38.23%
Huybrechts 27.33%
Chisnall 17.00%
King 5.43%
White 3.93%
Cross 3.45%
Norris 2.42%
Beaton 2.21%
Third quarter:
Anderson 74.82%
Suljovic 13.98%
Klaasen 4.94%
Gurney 2.69%
van de Pas 2.14%
Henderson 1.26%
Kist 0.14%
Pipe 0.02%
Fourth quarter:
Wright 47.39%
Smith 26.53%
Webster 9.57%
Reyes 9.20%
Thornton 3.77%
Wade 2.57%
Wilson 0.69%
West 0.29%
Top half:
van Gerwen 64.21%
Lewis 10.32%
van Barneveld 7.93%
Huybrechts 6.73%
Taylor 4.45%
Chisnall 3.36%
<1% - Whitlock, King, Cullen, Anderson, White, Cross, Norris, Beaton, Price
<0.1% - Bunting
Bottom half:
Anderson 61.05%
Wright 17.35%
Suljovic 7.23%
Smith 7.03%
Reyes 1.64%
Webster 1.64%
Klaasen 1.58%
<1% - Gurney, van de Pas, Thornton, Henderson, Wade
<0.1% - Wilson, Kist, West
<0.01% - Pipe
Champion:
van Gerwen 49.45%
G Anderson 28.70%
Wright 4.47%
Lewis 4.46%
van Barneveld 3.70%
Huybrechts 2.70%
Taylor 1.72%
Suljovic 1.37%
Smith 1.25%
Chisnall 1.13%
<1% - Reyes, Whitlock, Webster, Klaasen, King
<0.1% - Cullen, Gurney, K Anderson, van de Pas, White, Thornton, Cross, Norris, Henderson, Beaton, Wade, Price
<0.01% - Bunting, Wilson
<0.001% - Kist, West
<0.0001% - Pipe
Tuesday, 11 July 2017
Sunday, 9 July 2017
Players Championship 15/16 report, Matchplay field confirmed
With most of the world's top 10 not attending for various reasons, the field was opened up for plenty of people to take advantage and make runs in what was the final qualification event before the World Matchplay, let's have a look at what happened:
Performance of the weekend - I'll give this to Darren Webster over a lot of very close contenders - opening up on Friday with qualification for the European event in the Netherlands and then winning his first ranking title since the dawn of time in fine style, with a 6-1 victory over Daryl Gurney. Gurney also comes close having made that final and then a semi final just now, fully taking advantage of the opportunity that others around him in my adjusted rankings completely failed to do, looking lower down the order Ryan Searle won one board final, made another and qualified for Europe as he continues an impressive opening season in the PDC.
Best tournament performance - Again, a huge number of contenders from across the spectrum, but Zoran Lerchbacher reaching the final of today's event takes it for me. Cullen winning it to claim a second title was solid but not as unexpected as the Austrian's run, including taking four matches in a deciding leg. Webster's win on Saturday was covered above, Justin Pipe got a critical semi final to make Blackpool, Keegan Brown and Nathan Aspinall can be happy with their quarter final runs today, while plenty of players well outside the top 50 managed to win board finals and pick up critical money in the race for majors.
Best single match performance - Michael Barnard had a few contenders, 6-0 wins over Matthew Dennant and James Richardson and a win over Jelle Klaasen, Maik Langendorf held his nerve to beat Michael Smith and win a board final yesterday, Darren Johnson whitewashed Pete Hudson in a clash of two players showing form this season, but I'll give this to Richard North for his 6-1 win over Simon Whitlock today as he moves within five grand of making Dublin and closes down on a World Championship appearance.
Worst weekend long performance - Michael Smith, Jelle Klaasen and Simon Whitlock all played both events this weekend and won three matches combined. I'll give this to Klaasen, who knows if he's come back from injury too soon, but two first round defeats to Richie Burnett and Michael Barnard is a poor showing.
Worst single match performance - There's probably more bad single match showings, especially from the above, Smith losing to Portela being a great example, but in terms of importance Chris Dobey losing 6-1 to Mike de Decker in a match he had to win to stay alive in the Matchplay race claims this one. A shame as he looked like he was picking up form, would still needed to have beaten Joe Cullen, but we'll never know.
Matchplay field is now confirmed. Will bold the seeds and italicise the players that didn't qualify when posting my adjusted rankings below, which I'll take down as far as needed to incorporate everybody. I'm not sure when the draw is, but expect in depth previews and analysis once it's done.
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 James Wade
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith
9 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
10 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 1)
11 Ian White (UP 2)
12 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 1)
13 Kim Huybrechts (UP 1)
14 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
21 Robert Thornton
22 Cristo Reyes
23 Stephen Bunting
24 Darren Webster
25 Steve Beaton
26 Mark Webster
27 Kyle Anderson
28 Brendan Dolan
29 Terry Jenkins
30 James Wilson
31 Chris Dobey
32 Justin Pipe
33 Vincent van der Voort
34 Rob Cross
35 Steve West
36 Christian Kist
37 Robbie Green
38 John Henderson
39 Jonny Clayton
40 Jermaine Wattimena
Notes - Ian White's now the highest rank player from Stoke, Caven's finally out of the top 40 as a result of Wattimena making his board final today, Lerchbacher is up into the top 60 following his final today, Gurney's less than a grand away from a top 8 place. This does not currently include the guaranteed first round money from the Matchplay.
Performance of the weekend - I'll give this to Darren Webster over a lot of very close contenders - opening up on Friday with qualification for the European event in the Netherlands and then winning his first ranking title since the dawn of time in fine style, with a 6-1 victory over Daryl Gurney. Gurney also comes close having made that final and then a semi final just now, fully taking advantage of the opportunity that others around him in my adjusted rankings completely failed to do, looking lower down the order Ryan Searle won one board final, made another and qualified for Europe as he continues an impressive opening season in the PDC.
Best tournament performance - Again, a huge number of contenders from across the spectrum, but Zoran Lerchbacher reaching the final of today's event takes it for me. Cullen winning it to claim a second title was solid but not as unexpected as the Austrian's run, including taking four matches in a deciding leg. Webster's win on Saturday was covered above, Justin Pipe got a critical semi final to make Blackpool, Keegan Brown and Nathan Aspinall can be happy with their quarter final runs today, while plenty of players well outside the top 50 managed to win board finals and pick up critical money in the race for majors.
Best single match performance - Michael Barnard had a few contenders, 6-0 wins over Matthew Dennant and James Richardson and a win over Jelle Klaasen, Maik Langendorf held his nerve to beat Michael Smith and win a board final yesterday, Darren Johnson whitewashed Pete Hudson in a clash of two players showing form this season, but I'll give this to Richard North for his 6-1 win over Simon Whitlock today as he moves within five grand of making Dublin and closes down on a World Championship appearance.
Worst weekend long performance - Michael Smith, Jelle Klaasen and Simon Whitlock all played both events this weekend and won three matches combined. I'll give this to Klaasen, who knows if he's come back from injury too soon, but two first round defeats to Richie Burnett and Michael Barnard is a poor showing.
Worst single match performance - There's probably more bad single match showings, especially from the above, Smith losing to Portela being a great example, but in terms of importance Chris Dobey losing 6-1 to Mike de Decker in a match he had to win to stay alive in the Matchplay race claims this one. A shame as he looked like he was picking up form, would still needed to have beaten Joe Cullen, but we'll never know.
Matchplay field is now confirmed. Will bold the seeds and italicise the players that didn't qualify when posting my adjusted rankings below, which I'll take down as far as needed to incorporate everybody. I'm not sure when the draw is, but expect in depth previews and analysis once it's done.
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 James Wade
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith
9 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
10 Jelle Klaasen (DOWN 1)
11 Ian White (UP 2)
12 Simon Whitlock (DOWN 1)
13 Kim Huybrechts (UP 1)
14 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
21 Robert Thornton
22 Cristo Reyes
23 Stephen Bunting
24 Darren Webster
25 Steve Beaton
26 Mark Webster
27 Kyle Anderson
28 Brendan Dolan
29 Terry Jenkins
30 James Wilson
31 Chris Dobey
32 Justin Pipe
33 Vincent van der Voort
34 Rob Cross
35 Steve West
36 Christian Kist
37 Robbie Green
38 John Henderson
39 Jonny Clayton
40 Jermaine Wattimena
Notes - Ian White's now the highest rank player from Stoke, Caven's finally out of the top 40 as a result of Wattimena making his board final today, Lerchbacher is up into the top 60 following his final today, Gurney's less than a grand away from a top 8 place. This does not currently include the guaranteed first round money from the Matchplay.
Monday, 3 July 2017
Leverkusen report
So that's the last tournament before the Matchplay for which we'll be able to accumulate stats, and with just the two Pro Tour events left to go we have a very good idea of who'll be playing in this event, with it coming down to just a half dozen or so spots from the Pro Tour. Peter Wright won again yesterday, but what awards will I give?
Worst single match performance: Bit of a tricky one this, no real obvious contenders - van der Voort is excused because he's against van Gerwen, not sure what we expected Allenstein to do in his whitewash, I suppose I'll go for Matt Clark, no legs, 80 average, opponent not really doing enough to excuse the no legs.
Best player performance: Mervyn King, and I don't think it's close. Coming from the Friday to reach the final has got to be a contender for anyone, but King did this in style - just the one twelve darter in round one, but three in round two backed up with a couple of fifteens in a demolition job over Ian White, another twelve against Petersen in the last sixteen with just the one leg over fifteen darts, Cross was a bit more of a grind but any win over Cross, fresh off beating van Gerwen, is a result, and beating Michael Smith to reach the final. He seems to be peaking at just the right time and no seed will want to face him in Blackpool.
Best single match performance: Rob Cross wins this for his win over the world number one, with two twelve darters and three more legs in fifteen darts or less, this has bumped his numbers in what was his weakest category a bit. Dave Chisnall against James Richardson was clinical, in what was an excellent weekend statistically for Chizzy, until he ran into Peter Wright. Richardson's opening game was quality, and Gurney didn't do bad in his opener either.
Worst player performance: Jelle Klaasen went out to someone he let win every single leg in more than fifteen darts, that will do fine.
Worst single match performance: Bit of a tricky one this, no real obvious contenders - van der Voort is excused because he's against van Gerwen, not sure what we expected Allenstein to do in his whitewash, I suppose I'll go for Matt Clark, no legs, 80 average, opponent not really doing enough to excuse the no legs.
Nothing much to comment on - because of my internet troubles I wasn't able to watch any of this, the only interesting thing is Lewis dropping out of the top 10 below. He can regain ground if he doesn't withdraw from the Pro Tour this weekend, a huge number of the top 10 aren't entered. Also from this weekend, Rob Cross is now in the top 35, John Henderson solidifies a top 40 spot, Kryzsztof Ratajski is now firmly entrenched in the top 100.
Current adjusted top 20:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic
6 James Wade
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
11 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
12 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
13 Ian White
14 Kim Huybrechts
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King
Friday, 30 June 2017
Leverkusen - lack of updates
FRH Towers has suffered an internet crash of apocalyptic levels, so any analysis or bets will, if they appear at all, be extremely brief and to the point. The master computer expects to be back online on Monday, so hopefully I can get a round up posted in decent time.
Monday, 26 June 2017
The FRH performance index
As I have half an hour before an incredibly critical appointment to see a man about a dog, I thought I'd crunch some numbers on the stats that I've mentioned a few times, namely how quickly someone finished in four, five or six visits, and what they average when they're losing. I've taken the top 50 in the official rankings and added anyone in my top 50 that isn't there (which is just Rob Cross instead of Ricky Evans) and assigned the following points.
The first table gives 45 points for the highest scorer in each category, and scales it down so that scoring zero would get you zero. The second table, which I think is more useful, gives you 45 points if you are the highest scorer in a category, and zero points for whatever the lowest scorer has, scaled linearly in between. I think this is better, as at least on the last two categories it's really easy to score some sort of decent tally. For aesthetics, the perfect score as a result would be 180. So, without further ado, here's the figures, firstly for zero score = zero points:
1 Michael van Gerwen 179.52
2 Gary Anderson 167.89
3 Raymond van Barneveld 156.50
4 Adrian Lewis 153.33
5 Phil Taylor 152.01
6 Peter Wright 150.51
7 Kim Huybrechts 149.91
8 Dave Chisnall 147.36
9 Mensur Suljovic 144.53
10 Michael Smith 144.50
11 Vincent van der Voort 142.12
12 Cristo Reyes 137.35
13 Simon Whitlock 137.04
14 Mervyn King 136.48
15 Darren Webster 136.27
16 Jelle Klaasen 135.38
17 Joe Cullen 135.25
18 Ian White 134.13
19 Robbie Green 133.31
20 Robert Thornton 132.75
21 Daryl Gurney 132.40
22 Kyle Anderson 131.25
23 Benito van de Pas 130.06
24 Steve Beaton 129.85
25 Gerwyn Price 128.66
26 James Wade 127.04
27 Alan Norris 126.91
28 Stephen Bunting 126.76
29 Rob Cross 126.23
30 Ricky Evans 124.75
31 Terry Jenkins 124.75
32 John Henderson 124.58
33 Chris Dobey 122.79
34 Dimitri van den Bergh 122.64
35 Jonny Clayton 122.50
36 Joe Murnan 121.56
37 Brendan Dolan 121.10
38 James Wilson 119.38
39 Steve West 119.01
40 Jermaine Wattimena 118.05
41 Max Hopp 117.75
42 Christian Kist 117.04
43 Mark Webster 116.65
44 Ronny Huybrechts 116.42
45 Jamie Lewis 115.68
46 Kevin Painter 112.87
47 Rowby John Rodriguez 110.33
48 Justin Pipe 107.34
49 Josh Payne 105.32
50 Jamie Caven 105.18
51 Andrew Gilding 100.88
The first table gives 45 points for the highest scorer in each category, and scales it down so that scoring zero would get you zero. The second table, which I think is more useful, gives you 45 points if you are the highest scorer in a category, and zero points for whatever the lowest scorer has, scaled linearly in between. I think this is better, as at least on the last two categories it's really easy to score some sort of decent tally. For aesthetics, the perfect score as a result would be 180. So, without further ado, here's the figures, firstly for zero score = zero points:
1 Michael van Gerwen 179.52
2 Gary Anderson 167.89
3 Raymond van Barneveld 156.50
4 Adrian Lewis 153.33
5 Phil Taylor 152.01
6 Peter Wright 150.51
7 Kim Huybrechts 149.91
8 Dave Chisnall 147.36
9 Mensur Suljovic 144.53
10 Michael Smith 144.50
11 Vincent van der Voort 142.12
12 Cristo Reyes 137.35
13 Simon Whitlock 137.04
14 Mervyn King 136.48
15 Darren Webster 136.27
16 Jelle Klaasen 135.38
17 Joe Cullen 135.25
18 Ian White 134.13
19 Robbie Green 133.31
20 Robert Thornton 132.75
21 Daryl Gurney 132.40
22 Kyle Anderson 131.25
23 Benito van de Pas 130.06
24 Steve Beaton 129.85
25 Gerwyn Price 128.66
26 James Wade 127.04
27 Alan Norris 126.91
28 Stephen Bunting 126.76
29 Rob Cross 126.23
30 Ricky Evans 124.75
31 Terry Jenkins 124.75
32 John Henderson 124.58
33 Chris Dobey 122.79
34 Dimitri van den Bergh 122.64
35 Jonny Clayton 122.50
36 Joe Murnan 121.56
37 Brendan Dolan 121.10
38 James Wilson 119.38
39 Steve West 119.01
40 Jermaine Wattimena 118.05
41 Max Hopp 117.75
42 Christian Kist 117.04
43 Mark Webster 116.65
44 Ronny Huybrechts 116.42
45 Jamie Lewis 115.68
46 Kevin Painter 112.87
47 Rowby John Rodriguez 110.33
48 Justin Pipe 107.34
49 Josh Payne 105.32
50 Jamie Caven 105.18
51 Andrew Gilding 100.88
Secondly, for lowest score = zero points:
1 Michael van Gerwen 177.12
2 Gary Anderson 165.30
3 Raymond van Barneveld 143.46
4 Phil Taylor 143.07
5 Peter Wright 139.33
6 Adrian Lewis 129.64
7 Mensur Suljovic 126.43
8 Dave Chisnall 121.81
9 Kim Huybrechts 117.41
10 Michael Smith 116.04
11 Simon Whitlock 110.99
12 Cristo Reyes 109.32
13 Vincent van der Voort 106.69
14 Mervyn King 102.72
15 Darren Webster 102.11
16 Joe Cullen 102.01
17 Daryl Gurney 101.44
18 Ian White 98.18
19 Benito van de Pas 97.24
20 Robbie Green 96.55
21 Ricky Evans 96.39
22 Rob Cross 96.36
23 Jelle Klaasen 94.77
24 James Wade 91.58
25 Gerwyn Price 90.41
26 Kyle Anderson 87.97
27 Steve Beaton 87.67
28 Stephen Bunting 85.21
29 Alan Norris 81.97
30 Robert Thornton 80.61
31 Dimitri van den Bergh 77.87
32 Jonny Clayton 74.56
33 Chris Dobey 74.37
34 James Wilson 73.41
35 Terry Jenkins 73.29
36 Brendan Dolan 72.68
37 Mark Webster 68.42
38 John Henderson 67.95
39 Christian Kist 67.30
40 Steve West 65.80
41 Joe Murnan 62.47
42 Jermaine Wattimena 61.59
43 Jamie Lewis 61.09
44 Ronny Huybrechts 59.67
45 Max Hopp 58.15
46 Rowby John Rodriguez 49.73
47 Justin Pipe 48.86
48 Kevin Painter 48.54
49 Josh Payne 47.98
50 Jamie Caven 23.13
51 Andrew Gilding 13.51
Sunday, 25 June 2017
Quick Austria roundup
Very fast as I need to be up in the morning to fund my beer bill:
Best player performance: Giving this to Joe Cullen. van Gerwen today was possibly the best we've seen, but Cullen's game was absolutely on point, and a semi-final slotting in more or less everything within fifteen darts, getting plenty of twelves and ending well north of 105 against Huybrechts is a great weekend given the talent on show.
Best single match performance: While Viljanen against Wright might be an obvious shout for this, I'm going to Michael van Gerwen in the semi final against Reyes. Three legs in twelve darts or better, another two in fifteen, the only leg he lost he was on 40 after twelve darts, it's really, really hard to do much better than that. Reyes against Gurney is worth a mention, King and Bain have also had solid games throughout the weekend.
Worst player performance: Stephen Bunting getting seeded to this and then not winning a leg against Chris Dobey, who while he played some good stuff this weekend, hasn't exactly been in form, has to be the winner.
Worst single match performance: Rob Cross, while getting everything on the other end of the scale, needs this against Klaasen, while Jelle winning wouldn't be out of the ordinary, doing it 6-0 while averaging south of 95 and only getting half your legs in fifteen darts is certainly a huge surprise. He did at least grind out a win against Andy Jenkins otherwise he might be swapped with Bunting in the previous category. Cullen's semi final was very disappointing, averaging sub 70 in losing legs and only getting a couple of the legs he did through Smith missed doubles isn't the best.
Ended up dropping just under a quarter of a unit for this event, I'm fine with all the bets I made, people underperforming and running into players on top form happens and is factored in to what I'm looking at.
Current adjusted top 20:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
6 James Wade (DOWN 1)
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith (UP 2)
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
11 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
13 Ian White (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris (UP 2)
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor (DOWN 2)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King (NEW)
Best player performance: Giving this to Joe Cullen. van Gerwen today was possibly the best we've seen, but Cullen's game was absolutely on point, and a semi-final slotting in more or less everything within fifteen darts, getting plenty of twelves and ending well north of 105 against Huybrechts is a great weekend given the talent on show.
Best single match performance: While Viljanen against Wright might be an obvious shout for this, I'm going to Michael van Gerwen in the semi final against Reyes. Three legs in twelve darts or better, another two in fifteen, the only leg he lost he was on 40 after twelve darts, it's really, really hard to do much better than that. Reyes against Gurney is worth a mention, King and Bain have also had solid games throughout the weekend.
Worst player performance: Stephen Bunting getting seeded to this and then not winning a leg against Chris Dobey, who while he played some good stuff this weekend, hasn't exactly been in form, has to be the winner.
Worst single match performance: Rob Cross, while getting everything on the other end of the scale, needs this against Klaasen, while Jelle winning wouldn't be out of the ordinary, doing it 6-0 while averaging south of 95 and only getting half your legs in fifteen darts is certainly a huge surprise. He did at least grind out a win against Andy Jenkins otherwise he might be swapped with Bunting in the previous category. Cullen's semi final was very disappointing, averaging sub 70 in losing legs and only getting a couple of the legs he did through Smith missed doubles isn't the best.
Ended up dropping just under a quarter of a unit for this event, I'm fine with all the bets I made, people underperforming and running into players on top form happens and is factored in to what I'm looking at.
Current adjusted top 20:
1 Michael van Gerwen
2 Peter Wright
3 Gary Anderson
4 Dave Chisnall
5 Mensur Suljovic (UP 1)
6 James Wade (DOWN 1)
7 Raymond van Barneveld
8 Michael Smith (UP 2)
9 Jelle Klaasen
10 Adrian Lewis (DOWN 2)
11 Daryl Gurney (UP 1)
12 Simon Whitlock (UP 1)
13 Ian White (DOWN 2)
14 Kim Huybrechts
15 Benito van de Pas
16 Alan Norris (UP 2)
17 Gerwyn Price
18 Phil Taylor (DOWN 2)
19 Joe Cullen
20 Mervyn King (NEW)
Austria quarter finals
Well those bets were unfortunate, can't help but feel that Bain let that one slip, holding well enough to 3-2 up then lets Schindler win the rest in six visits, the critical one being on his throw - the twelve darter, while nice, was just to hold which loses a fair chunk of the effect. Cullen was just lights out and Huybrechts did well just to keep it that close.
Quarter finals are up in less than two hours:
Michael van Gerwen/Martin Schindler - Schindler took a couple of legs in the World Cup against MvG, but still lost, this is a longer race and the odds makers have van Gerwen at 1/25, I've got him winning before a deciding leg over 95% of the time, with Schindler doing the same less than 1% of the time - Schindler at this stage has over a 50 winning leg sample which is big enough.
Daryl Gurney/Cristo Reyes - Big opportunity for either of these, neither of which will think this is just a final, Gurney is priced up around a 60/40 favourite. This seems too much, they've played very, very similarly, and on historical data I have this going the distance over one in four games, with Reyes taking a slight bit more of everything else. I think there's enough edge here to play, but I'll go small - 0.25u Reyes 11/8
Kim Viljanen/Joe Cullen - Cullen's a 3-1 favourite, this looks to be very much down the middle of what I have from all stats - if Cullen plays like he did against Huybrechts I really don't see Viljanen being able to cope, who was able to ease past Dobey finishing only two legs in under fifteen darts, a big drop from the performance against Peter Wright.
Michael Smith/Mervyn King - Smith's installed as about a 65/35 favourite, ignoring Stan James' rogue line which offers an arb but Stan James paying out on it is really unlikely, I'll ignore it, and I have this as closer - King's up at 32% before 5-5 with Smith at 42%, so a fair chunk should go all the way and winning the throw could be key, but King's simply played better this weekend - all legs under fifteen in round two, including a twelve, then four from six in fifteen in round three, compared to Smith's four from six in fifteen (incorporating one twelve) in round two and only two out of six in under fifteen darts against Klaasen - Klaasen let Smith hold throw in seven visits twice and seemed out of sorts. King's taken out the home favourite and Smith is no harder than Suljovic, so I'll go for the best price that we're likely to get paid on - 0.25u King 15/8
No chance of bets before the semis/finals, write up should follow this evening.
Quarter finals are up in less than two hours:
Michael van Gerwen/Martin Schindler - Schindler took a couple of legs in the World Cup against MvG, but still lost, this is a longer race and the odds makers have van Gerwen at 1/25, I've got him winning before a deciding leg over 95% of the time, with Schindler doing the same less than 1% of the time - Schindler at this stage has over a 50 winning leg sample which is big enough.
Daryl Gurney/Cristo Reyes - Big opportunity for either of these, neither of which will think this is just a final, Gurney is priced up around a 60/40 favourite. This seems too much, they've played very, very similarly, and on historical data I have this going the distance over one in four games, with Reyes taking a slight bit more of everything else. I think there's enough edge here to play, but I'll go small - 0.25u Reyes 11/8
Kim Viljanen/Joe Cullen - Cullen's a 3-1 favourite, this looks to be very much down the middle of what I have from all stats - if Cullen plays like he did against Huybrechts I really don't see Viljanen being able to cope, who was able to ease past Dobey finishing only two legs in under fifteen darts, a big drop from the performance against Peter Wright.
Michael Smith/Mervyn King - Smith's installed as about a 65/35 favourite, ignoring Stan James' rogue line which offers an arb but Stan James paying out on it is really unlikely, I'll ignore it, and I have this as closer - King's up at 32% before 5-5 with Smith at 42%, so a fair chunk should go all the way and winning the throw could be key, but King's simply played better this weekend - all legs under fifteen in round two, including a twelve, then four from six in fifteen in round three, compared to Smith's four from six in fifteen (incorporating one twelve) in round two and only two out of six in under fifteen darts against Klaasen - Klaasen let Smith hold throw in seven visits twice and seemed out of sorts. King's taken out the home favourite and Smith is no harder than Suljovic, so I'll go for the best price that we're likely to get paid on - 0.25u King 15/8
No chance of bets before the semis/finals, write up should follow this evening.
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