Tuesday, 11 July 2017

Matchplay outright and sectional analysis

Evening,

Nice of the PDC to push the time they say the draw will show up on Facebook back at quarter of an hour increments, only for it to never arrive and a quick F5 on their own site to show that it's done. Match by match analysis to come (will consider it in pods of four players, so eight posts in total), but for now, I've shoved the stats into the master computer, ran every single permutation of matches against each other and come up with the chances of each player winning their quarter, half of the draw, and the thing outright.

Caveat emptor - this considers all competitive darts since September. It's not filtered by recency, as I don't want a bunch of divide by zero errors on Phil, it doesn't take into account consistency and is only considering winning legs, and doesn't take into account things like Adie being injured, Jelle being injured (although it obviously factors in competitive games he's played while injured) and form. Where players are grouped in later rounds, they are still sorted in order of winning chances.

First quarter:

van Gerwen 74.05%
van Barneveld 12.79%
Taylor 8.22%
Whitlock 2.17%
Cullen 1.09%
Anderson 1.07%
Price 0.41%
Bunting 0.19%

Second quarter:

Lewis 38.23%
Huybrechts 27.33%
Chisnall 17.00%
King 5.43%
White 3.93%
Cross 3.45%
Norris 2.42%
Beaton 2.21%

Third quarter:

Anderson 74.82%
Suljovic 13.98%
Klaasen 4.94%
Gurney 2.69%
van de Pas 2.14%
Henderson 1.26%
Kist 0.14%
Pipe 0.02%

Fourth quarter:

Wright 47.39%
Smith 26.53%
Webster 9.57%
Reyes 9.20%
Thornton 3.77%
Wade 2.57%
Wilson 0.69%
West 0.29%

Top half:

van Gerwen 64.21%
Lewis 10.32%
van Barneveld 7.93%
Huybrechts 6.73%
Taylor 4.45%
Chisnall 3.36%
<1% - Whitlock, King, Cullen, Anderson, White, Cross, Norris, Beaton, Price
<0.1% - Bunting

Bottom half:

Anderson 61.05%
Wright 17.35%
Suljovic 7.23%
Smith 7.03%
Reyes 1.64%
Webster 1.64%
Klaasen 1.58%
<1% - Gurney, van de Pas, Thornton, Henderson, Wade
<0.1% - Wilson, Kist, West
<0.01% - Pipe

Champion:

van Gerwen 49.45%
G Anderson 28.70%
Wright 4.47%
Lewis 4.46%
van Barneveld 3.70%
Huybrechts 2.70%
Taylor 1.72%
Suljovic 1.37%
Smith 1.25%
Chisnall 1.13%
<1% - Reyes, Whitlock, Webster, Klaasen, King
<0.1% - Cullen, Gurney, K Anderson, van de Pas, White, Thornton, Cross, Norris, Henderson, Beaton, Wade, Price
<0.01% - Bunting, Wilson
<0.001% - Kist, West
<0.0001% - Pipe

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