Saturday, 22 July 2017

Correct score betting

With nothing further to add in terms of the Matchplay at this stage, with all analysis done and all bets down, a couple of things popped into my mind recently that I wanted to mention briefly.

The betting aspect of this blog is all about straight match results, but I know that some people like to do other novelty bets like correct scores, most 180's regardless of the amount of bookmaker vig compared to just betting one player to win, which is fine for entertainment value. What I would say is to consider the following:

1) The better player in a match is probably going to win the bull more often and choose to throw first in the opening leg (at least in leg play, Taylor certainly did put the other guy in in set play where who goes first effectively doesn't matter, and they re-bull in a deciding leg anyway)
2) Players are more likely to win a leg on their own throw than they are to break (assuming no enormous skill disparity which you never see in the professional game)
3) As such, it's more likely that players will hold to win a match - and if a favourite does so, there will be an odd number of total legs played in the game (and vice versa, if you think an underdog has chances, there will be an even number of legs played if he holds to win and loses the bull)

With that in mind, if we're correct score betting on Anderson/Kist and Webster/Wade tonight, surely we want to be going 10-3 Anderson and 10-8 Webster (as examples, I've not looked back at my calculations to see the most likely winning points) if we think the favourite throws first more often? Perhaps something to have a look back at and see how much correlation there is between throwing first and winning scoreline.

Also, an awful lot of my analysis has just covered winning legs, and while I've made reference to how players do in losing legs, and also compared the average difference between the two (check the post called consistency, at least that's what I think it's called), but not really tried to combine the two. This is something I should be able to do easily, I've got the number of visits and points scored for each circumstance already and weighting them to number of legs won and lost should be trivial, I'll look at this after the Matchplay is done I think.

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