Sunday, 23 July 2017

Matchplay round 2 bottom half preview

Sod it, I'm looking at this now before I go to bed:

(7) Mensur Suljovic (1/3) v Justin Pipe (3/1)

Round 1: Suljovic 10-4 v Henderson, Pipe 10-5 v Klaasen
Head to head: Pipe leads 9-2

That head to head stat is a mild concern, especially when you factor in it's not just Pipe stat padding during his peak when Suljovic hadn't started his rise, five of those games come in the last 2 years, and Pipe leads those 4-1. Suljovic looked fine today, seeing off Henderson with little trouble and looking good doing so, albeit without any four turn legs, whereas Pipe, as described earlier, did little to suggest that his small uptick in floor form that got him here translated to the stage, as his numbers were just as poor as his stage game over the past year. The model is putting Suljovic at over 95% to win this one, he's not a less than 100% Klaasen and should put Pipe out much more than the market suggests - 2u Suljovic 1/3

Darren Webster (8/11) v Steve West (11/8)

Round 1: Webster 13-11 v Wade, West 10-5 v Smith
Head to head: Less than two games

The only all-unseeded clash so far, and barring a Beaton/Cross double tomorrow (not unbelievable) or a Bunting/Anderson double (OK then) it will be, this has opened up hugely for either player with the prospect of either Cristo Reyes or Peter Wright in a major quarter final. Webster was a bit lucky in that Wade managed to first blow his lead, then miss match darts, while West put in what was so far the performance of the round in blitzing Michael Smith in the first game up, killing my accumulator before things even start just like Liverpool in lunchtime kickoffs. West's performance has done enough to his numbers, which aren't a huge sample size compared to others still in the field, to change things from the pod 6 analysis post a bit, whereas previously he was below 20% to win this, he's now above 25%, but that is still some way short from what the line is hinting at. Webster has the advantage in TV experience over this sort of format I think, but West's game was so good that I don't want to go completely nuts and will just stick with 1u Webster 8/11

(2) Gary Anderson (2/7) v Daryl Gurney (7/2)

Round 1: Anderson 10-7 v Kist, Gurney 11-9 v van de Pas
Head to head: Anderson leads 6-4

This game was hyped as a potential match of the round ignoring the Taylor/Barney thing, with Gurney's improvement in form to the point where he's got to be extremely close to the Premier League at this stage, and his win over Anderson in Vegas just a week ago. This week, Anderson slotted in a very tidy game against a dogged Christian Kist, showing few weaknesses or dips from his historical form, whereas Gurney was not good, and managed to grind it out by keeping the pressure on and taking the chances that Benito allowed him to. Anderson is a big favourite in the market, does Gurney's recent form make it a bet for Gurney? I don't know. I have an extra 20 won legs on Gurney than Anderson in my sample (as he plays the Euro Tour more often mostly), and Anderson has as many five visit turns and twice as many four visit turns. I'm going to give Gurney the benefit of the doubt and say that today was an off day, and that he's doing more over his averages over the last twelve months right now that I'll refrain from betting Anderson.

(3) Peter Wright (3/10) v Cristo Reyes (4/1)

Round 1: Wright 10-8 v Wilson, Reyes 10-3 v Thornton
Head to head: Wright leads 7-1

While Wright leads 7-1, that one was their last meeting last month in Europe, while the other seven have all been close - four 6-5 results, two 6-4 results and a 10-7 in last year's European Championship. Wright averaged under 90 in grinding it out against James Wilson and will need to be much improved here against Reyes, who slammed in a ton plus average against a mediocre Robert Thornton, killing everything very tidily and getting over a ton in the legs that Thornton won. There's vig being offered, and it's from most bookies favouring Wright as opposed to a couple liking Reyes (relatively), so this might be a bet. The new figures have shifted things a couple of percentage points in favour of Reyes, I'm not entirely sure how given that Wright has an enormous sample size, the largest in my database, and Reyes didn't exactly crush his historical form, but there you go - the model has things at 70/30, which looks more than enough to predict the upset happens enough for a profitable bet - 0.25u Reyes 4/1

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