Sunday 25 June 2017

Austria quarter finals

Well those bets were unfortunate, can't help but feel that Bain let that one slip, holding well enough to 3-2 up then lets Schindler win the rest in six visits, the critical one being on his throw - the twelve darter, while nice, was just to hold which loses a fair chunk of the effect. Cullen was just lights out and Huybrechts did well just to keep it that close.

Quarter finals are up in less than two hours:

Michael van Gerwen/Martin Schindler - Schindler took a couple of legs in the World Cup against MvG, but still lost, this is a longer race and the odds makers have van Gerwen at 1/25, I've got him winning before a deciding leg over 95% of the time, with Schindler doing the same less than 1% of the time - Schindler at this stage has over a 50 winning leg sample which is big enough.

Daryl Gurney/Cristo Reyes - Big opportunity for either of these, neither of which will think this is just a final, Gurney is priced up around a 60/40 favourite. This seems too much, they've played very, very similarly, and on historical data I have this going the distance over one in four games, with Reyes taking a slight bit more of everything else. I think there's enough edge here to play, but I'll go small - 0.25u Reyes 11/8

Kim Viljanen/Joe Cullen - Cullen's a 3-1 favourite, this looks to be very much down the middle of what I have from all stats - if Cullen plays like he did against Huybrechts I really don't see Viljanen being able to cope, who was able to ease past Dobey finishing only two legs in under fifteen darts, a big drop from the performance against Peter Wright.

Michael Smith/Mervyn King - Smith's installed as about a 65/35 favourite, ignoring Stan James' rogue line which offers an arb but Stan James paying out on it is really unlikely, I'll ignore it, and I have this as closer - King's up at 32% before 5-5 with Smith at 42%, so a fair chunk should go all the way and winning the throw could be key, but King's simply played better this weekend - all legs under fifteen in round two, including a twelve, then four from six in fifteen in round three, compared to Smith's four from six in fifteen (incorporating one twelve) in round two and only two out of six in under fifteen darts against Klaasen - Klaasen let Smith hold throw in seven visits twice and seemed out of sorts. King's taken out the home favourite and Smith is no harder than Suljovic, so I'll go for the best price that we're likely to get paid on - 0.25u King 15/8

No chance of bets before the semis/finals, write up should follow this evening.

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