Friday, 9 June 2017

Hamburg day 2

The only thing I can do in relation to yesterday's betting is direct you to Bobby Roode's current entrance music. It was glorious.

So for round 2, what do we have? Thanks to the snap election and me being awake at gone 4am yesterday, I'm fresh and can look at the lines right now:

Gurney/Hendriks - Hendriks might well be a live dog here, but I question the stats I have, simply because he's all over the place. Will leave it alone.

Norris/Kantele - Kantele just doesn't seem good at all. Alcinas should have finished him easily but couldn't get over the line, while I only have nine winning legs on Kantele which is a small sample, those legs reckon Norris wins 90% of the time, and a losing leg average of barely over 80 doesn't convince me at all. 1u Norris 2/7

King/North - North managed to swat aside Mansell with relative ease, which I found really surprising, and is installed as a 2/1 dog against King, and while I should probably recommend a King bet, I lack enough real data on North to want to bet.

Smith/de Decker - de Decker's now actually shorter against Smith than he was against Hopp, which seems borderline retarded, but there you go, Smith should win this comfortably but the stats I have indicate that de Decker might just pull it out enough to not bet the match.

Reyes/Aspinall - Interesting game this one, and I'm going to ignore it. This is because my sample has Aspinall firing in so many five visit leg wins, that it reckons he should be the favourite. It also has him up at 89 on losing legs, which isn't a bad number, and I've got 24 winning legs which isn't that small a sample, so maybe there's a point? If it was more than 2/1 then I'd come out swinging, I think I should regardless, but will refrain from doing so.

Huybrechts/Hudson - This is almost a Huybrechts bet, and I wouldn't say no to sticking him in your accumulators, but he doesn't have quite enough at 2/9 for me to start piling on against someone who just did a 6-1 job on a top 32 player.

White/Jacques - Not sure why White's so long here. Jacques struggled against Dobey, relying on many missed match darts, and the value is here - 1u White 4/9

Cullen/Pipe - Got good data on both of these, Pipe looked fairly good in beating Ratajski, and it's a 4/7 - 7/4 game. The numbers disagree with this, and by a good margin - 0.5u Cullen 4/7

Whitlock/Hamilton - Schindler really should have finished the Hammer, but oh well, he's long odds against versus Whitlock, and it's not long enough for my liking - Hamilton really shouldn't be able to hang here at all - 1u Whitlock 2/7

Chisnall/Wilson - Just going straight to the data here, it reckons Chisnall is correctly the favourite, but by around the amount that the odds suggest, Wilson didn't have it all his own way in round 1 so I'm not going to rush to try to bet the underdog.

Suljovic/van Duijvenbode - Mensur's consistency should easily be enough here, but I'm not rushing to pile on at shorter than 1/5 against a potentially dangerous opponent who I've already backed this weekend.

Wade/Anderson - Kyle's weekend doesn't get much easier. The figures actually suggest that Kyle should be the favourite though, yet he's around a 2/1 dog. Wade clearly crushes on consistency, but regardless of that I think it's an obvious bet - 0.5u Anderson 7/4

Klaasen/Bunting - Not touching this with a bargepole because of Klaasen's surgery.

Wright/Michael - Michael used all his lives against Tautfest. Too short to bet on Wright though.

van de Pas/van der Voort - If you didn't watch it, watch the Adrian Lewis game, that was fantastic entertainment. The figures I have reckon this is much, much closer to a flip than the odds suggest, and Vincent managed to get over the line having run up a 5-0 lead in the face of a ferocious Lewis comeback, which is often the main reason why we don't bet on Vincent - if he's done it against Adrian Lewis, Benito should be a good shout - 0.5u van der Voort 15/8

van Gerwen/Henderson - LOL

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