Saturday, 10 June 2017

Hamburg last 16

Ahhhhhh, that's better. Whitlock completely fucking up against Hamilton aside, I can't really ask for a better round of 32 and event in general, up nearly 4 units so far. Last sixteen kicks off tomorrow, let's have a look:

Suljovic/Gurney - Gurney really didn't impress against Hendriks, only managing one leg in fifteen darts or less, which really won't hack it against Suljovic, then again, he only managed two, albeit one when it absolutely mattered, to get a twelve darter to break in leg 10, but even after that he should have been eliminated, van Duijvenbode couldn't finish in the eighteen darts he was given. The market has Mensur as a small favourite, my stats have Mensur as a bigger favourite but I don't think they quite account enough for Gurney's recent improvements in play (they go back as far as last September). A small punt looks OK though - 0.5u Suljovic 4/5

Chisnall/White - Chizzy completely crushed today with three twelve dart or better legs, easily the performance of the round. White got by with five out of six won legs in six visits, thus Chisnall is installed as a heavy favourite. The line looks as if it should be marginal White value on historic form, but given yesterday I'm fine ignoring it.

Bunting/Anderson - Bunting looked solid against Klaasen, 6-2 with four in fifteen and the others in eighteen, Anderson won by the same score with slightly worse legs, only getting the two in under fifteen against a far, far below par Wade. Bookies have Bunting a small favourite. My stats like Anderson again, much like yesterday's match, but I do wonder if he can pick the game up to his standard level after round 2's basically free win. He wasn't exactly on fire against Kist either. Will leave it alone.

Wright/Reyes - Wright is a big, big favourite here, after Reyes dodged some bullets against Nathan Aspinall who was probably the better player but couldn't get over the line from a 4-3 lead. Reyes as a tiny punt would look OK if he played decently in his opening game, but I don't think he did so will pass on this one.

Hamilton/Smith - Andy shocked me by winning against Whitlock with no real trouble, although if Whitlock could have hit straight fifteen dart legs he wins 6-0. Smith appeared red hot against de Decker and comes in as nearly an 80% favourite. This seems perfectly fine, although the lack of data on Hamilton is a concern. Probably one to put in an acca if you want to shove one on for a laugh, but I'm not going to bet this.

van der Voort/Cullen - This is surprisingly even, can we bet Vincent for a third time and print money for a third time? Cullen was really, really good today - the only bad leg he had was the sixth, otherwise he rolled Pipe looking great in the process. Vincent showed some great clutch play to get the break in the deciding leg against Benito. The line looks real close to historical numbers, so I'll not bet on yet another game.

Hudson/Norris - Hudson really should be out, Kim should have closed out from 5-2, and then when Peter shanked that second dart terribly on 89 for the game, my god. Oh well, he's here, and he's against Norris, who allowed Kantele to break him twice in seven visits early before getting his act together. On historic numbers and pure skill, Norris is a value bet at the odds we're given, but he's looked so shaky in so many places I'm not sure I can go as hard as I like, but I can't pass these odds completely - 0.5u Norris 8/13

van Gerwen/King - Mervyn was really hot and cold against North, missing a nine but needing seven visits to win half his legs. Michael was standard but didn't really need to get out of top gear, only throwing in the one twelve dart leg to ice the match. van Gerwen is a huge favourite and I think it's incredibly close to being an accurate line, ignoring that King was a bit shaky and inconsistent today. No bet again.

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