Sunday, 11 June 2017

Hamburg final session

Thanks for busting 20 three times in a row Alan, much appreciated

No huge surprises apart from Hudson making the final session from nowhere, obviously van Gerwen should be much too strong and is priced at stupid/1 on for the match. The other games should be fairly evenly poised, let's have a quick look:

Suljovic/Chisnall - Chizzy's a bit more odds on than I'd have thought, with my stats coming up 38-35 to Chisnall and the remaining games going 5-5, but Chisnall has looked a lot, lot better than Suljovic this weekend - enough that I think the line is fine.

Bunting/Reyes - Bunting was very classy in winning every leg against Kyle Anderson in fifteen darts or less, nearly the only player to have done that this weekend. The other is Cristo Reyes won a tussle against Peter Wright with two twelve darters and the rest in fifteen. This should be an easier task, and Reyes is a tiny, tiny favourite at the bookies. However, my stats give Reyes a much bigger edge - 46-29. Questions are whether Bunting will continue to trend upwards, he's played better each round, first round was fairly scrappy, second one was tidy enough, whether he copes with what looks like a hot venue better than Reyes, which seems doubtful as it's more like Tenerife than St Helens, and whether Bunting can actually slam in the twelve darter if needed to break at a key spot. He's not hit one all weekend. Reyes might suffer from a bit of a comedown after the win over Wright, but it still seems worth a Reyes punt - 0.5u Reyes 10/11

Smith/Cullen - Smith's around a 60/40 favourite in the market, maybe slightly closer (oddschecker's using funny numbers as the shortest), my numbers have it as a 44-30 game, which looks close enough to not bet - Cullen has looked very good, five out of six legs in five visits vs Pipe and four today (including one twelve darter) in holding off a van der Voort charge, while Smith has also appeared solid - five straight legs in fifteen or less against Hamilton earlier to effectively seal the tie at 5-1, and two twelve dart legs in a 6-1 first round win. Should just be a good game to watch without any betting implications.

van Gerwen/Hudson - just for fun, I have van Gerwen winning 95.5% of games before a deciding leg to Hudson's 1%, with a bagelling at over 20% probability, not even worth betting that outcome at 10/3.

Not going to be able to post in time for the semis and final - it's always a quick turnaround even if the bookies are prompt in pricing it up and I'm out playing myself anyway, but some semi final projections for you if you want to bet yourself. These are percentages to win 6-4 or better, the remainder are last leg deciders:

MvG/Smith - 69/12
MvG/Cullen - 76/8
Suljovic/Bunting - 57/19
Suljovic/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Reyes - 47/27
Chisnall/Bunting - 56/20

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