Friday, 9 June 2017

Hamburg day 1

Home qualifier is in the books, the German World Cup team made it, along with Mike Holz, who made a couple last year, of most note getting a first round win before losing 6-3 to Suljovic, and Erik Tautfest, who's a complete unknown (and seemingly has three entries on dartsdatabase). Let's look at bets:

Hudson/Dolan - Hudson looks like a punt here, Dolan's been struggling and didn't look great in Frankfurt and we're getting odds, Dolan's not outearned Hudson by much so far this season - 0.25u Hudson 17/10

North/Mansell - North's on debut it seems and Mansell is actually the underdog here, which is odd as he played good darts last weekend and will have more stage experience. I have no stats on North, who although getting into my adjusted top 100, has done it entirely on the Pro Tour. Mansell seems to be an OK play - 0.25u Mansell 11/10

Ratajski/Pipe - Even money basically, the Pole actually has fairly similar stats to Pipe, so while he's clearly got a solid record and should have chances, I don't think there's enough to bet.

Hamilton/Schindler - Martin looked OK under pressure in Frankfurt, Hamilton really needs this to try to rebuild his career, it's evens each way which doesn't look too far off.

Bryant/Wilson - I know little about Bryant, who so far in the PDC looks to be making up the numbers, which puts Wilson as more than 3/1 on. James is very solid and had a good run on the Pro Tour last time up, so I think this should be value - 1u Wilson 2/7

Kantele/Alcinas - More or less even money, Alcinas we know more of, Kantele really didn't look good when he qualified for one last time out, the Spaniard should get home here - 0.25u Alcinas 10/11

de Decker/Hopp - Hopp shouldn't be 4/1 on against anyone, period - 0.1u de Decker 37/10

Jenkins/Hendriks - Jimmy looks hit and miss on paper, Jenkins should be more solid, odds are tight and this should be tight.

Quantock/Aspinall - Two young players here in a close one, Quantock looking to consolidate a good 2017 while Aspinall's looking to rebound following an off year after the world youth final. Aspinall, if firing, should have a small edge, but that's a big if right now and not one that I want to push at around evens.

Webster/van Duijvenbode - Dirk's quite a bit odds against here, Webster had one good run last time out on the Pro Tour but seems a bit off the peak Webster we saw six months ago, Dirk has qualified for a lot of these and looks to be back close to the form that saw him get to the 2016 worlds. Let's go for it - 0.25u van Duijvenbode 5/2

Henderson/Holz - I think John should come through here in one that's hugely important for his Matchplay hopes, Holz did beat a couple of people we know in qualifying but his chances seem slim and this is reflected by the odds.

Jacques/Dobey - An important game for Chris, who's not been as on fire this year, particularly since the UK Open. He's a small favourite against Jacques who shouldn't be without chances, so I'll leave this alone.

Neyens/Bunting - Kenny literally got deleted off my ranking sheet for not cashing for two years last week, and I wouldn't blame you for going small value against a spluttering Bunting, but I wonder if this long off the stage will affect the still developing Belgian, whose best work has been on the minor tours and in the last world youth.

van der Voort/Lewis - Not the draw that Vincent wanted I think, but we have big, big odds against Lewis, who has been up and down a chunk, plenty of times Adrian runs away with this but there's enough times that he doesn't - 0.25u van der Voort 7/2

Tautfest/Michael - The home qualifier is unknown, Michael should have enough but I'm not touching this needing 80% equity to bet the Greek.

Anderson/Kist - Big clash to close things out as both look to secure Matchplay spots, Anderson seems the better natural talent and is a 60/40 favourite, but Kist seems to be on an upward curve so should maintain order and may be able to pull it out enough.

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