Saturday, 24 June 2017

Austria last 16

Was only able to get one bet up for yesterday, but at least it worked - I suppose the big thing is that results have really opened up the tournament - van Gerwen looks as close as a lock as you can get to reach the semis, while the corresponding quarter is all seeds, meanwhile on the other side Peter Wright's elimination opens things up primarily for Mensur Suljovic, who had one of the standout performances of today, but for a bunch of other players - there's nothing to say that Viljanen can't beat Chris Dobey and reach the final session on this form, while Huybrechts, Cullen, Klaasen, Smith and King are all players who are capable of reaching a final. Let's go through the bracket:

Michael van Gerwen/Vincent van der Meer - Stupid odds obviously, van Gerwen didn't look on top form against Kallinger, but didn't need to be, performing at the sort of level that van der Meer has been this weekend, won't be touching this but it's hard to see how van Gerwen doesn't kick things up and advance easily.

Jamie Bain/Martin Schindler - Bookies have this close to evens, as Schindler had easily the best performance of his short career in beating Ian White with fifteen darters for fun. Bain I mentioned yesterday, and my stats, while both are very limited, suggest that Bain should be a substantial favourite. This looks a great spot - 0.5u Bain 5/6

Benito van de Pas/Daryl Gurney - The bookies look to have this absolutely bang on - they have Gurney as the slightest of favourites in a flip, and so do I. Gurney's probably been the more consistent of recent while Benito's form has been real patchy, Gurney looked a touch better in round 2, I wouldn't disagree with you if you wanted to bet Gurney but I don't think there's enough edge.

Simon Whitlock/Cristo Reyes - Whitlock's listed as having a really small edge, no more than around 55/45, Reyes played a bit better in the legs he won today but lost a lot more, my stats say that Whitlock should be a small favourite, so will leave alone.

Kim Viljanen/Chris Dobey - Huge game for Dobey, who's already done enough this weekend to massively improve his Matchplay chances, and he's fallen into a great position to do even better. The stats of the two on won legs is extremely close - Viljanen actually having a tiny 1% edge to win in regulation, but Kim has quite a small sample and Dobey leads by 8 points on losing average. Dobey's somewhere in the 62-65% favourite range on the market, I'll leave it alone.

Kim Huybrechts/Joe Cullen - I think this should be a bet for Huybrechts. The market has it as him having not even a 60/40 edge, which I think he easily has - while Kim's weakness is his inconsistency, his average on losing legs is within Cullen's to 0.02 per visit. When he's winning legs he's blowing Cullen out of the water. Let's punt - 0.5u Huybrechts 3/4

Jelle Klaasen/Michael Smith - Smith is a small favourite after seeing off Chris Quantock who didn't show, despite Klaasen beating Rob Cross 6-0. Smith did a bit better on raw stats today, looks better than Jelle on historical stats, but not by a large enough amount where I want to gamble. Should be a great watch.

Mensur Suljovic/Mervyn King - Mensur's two twelve darters backed up with a couple of fifteens was the best performance of the day as far as I'm concerned and will have the home crowd behind him against King, who swatted aside Zoran Lerchbacher in great style, every won leg in fifteen or less, finishing with a twelve. Mensur's a bit shorter than a 2/1 favourite and seems to be peaking in form, but I think there's potentially very small value on King - if it wasn't being played in Austria. It is, so I'll say the line is fine.

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