Odds are up, a quick run down of the games:
Smith/Cross - Cross is installed as around a 60/40 favourite. My data has this as closer but with Cross still being the favourite, factor in that Cross is the more consistent player (nearly a three point lead on losing average) and I think there's not enough value there to consider betting.
Chisnall/Huybrechts - Can throw consistency out of the window here as they're both prone to missing chunks of doubles and taking legs off, the model has this split pretty much 50/50, so with Huybrechts being the 6/4 dog you might start to think about betting him, especially coming off a final in the last European Tour event, I don't think I want to do that though, Chisnall does have the higher losing average, seems to have been doing more all year and will probably do just enough in terms of outscoring the Belgian to compensate for a bit of doubling flakiness.
Whitlock/Boulton - Boulton's a bit of a surprise package this weekend, I have less than 30 (winning) legs of data on him compared to over 200 for Whitlock, he beat Gurney yesterday so can't be playing too badly, I'll ignore this one from a betting standpoint though as there's too many unknowns.
van Gerwen/Cullen - You can get nearly 6/1 on Cullen, which might not be too ridiculous a play. I've got him at 14% to win the match before a deciding leg, and a deciding leg would happen 20% of the time, however he's not looked on top form this weekend, doing enough against some mediocre opponents, van Gerwen looked good against Bunting just now so will have no bets at the quarter final stage.
The Euro field is set barring Boulton making the final, the only question is who's going to be seeded. With Wright going out early the 1-2-3 are locked as van Gerwen, Wright and Smith, Suljovic and Klaasen are currently 4 and 5, but aren't safe in those spots - Cullen's currently number 6 but can get above Klaasen by making the final and above Suljovic with a win - Cross is currently 7 but can also overtake Suljovic with a win, he's four grand behind Cullen with a better countback so if he reaches the final and Cullen doesn't he'd move above Cullen. Whitlock's the last seed and three grand behind Cross, so would need to reach the final to get any higher, tough given that it'd likely need him to go through van Gerwen. Chisnall is two grand behind Whitlock but with an inferior countback record, so he would need to make the final with either Whitlock not doing the same or Cross losing in the quarter final. For Cross and Whitlock and Chisnall, a win would see them all claim the number four seed. Huybrechts is the only remaining player who might get a seed, he would need to reach the final as a minimum, but that would rely on Whitlock not beating Boulton - if that happens Huybrechts would need to win it all, which would see him get the number 5 seed.
Sunday, 15 October 2017
Premier League lineup
Few too many shandies yesterday so no opportunity to post any round 3 analysis from the Euro Tour, I didn't see any outstanding value, but I hope people were on yesterday's 4/4 special.
It's getting close to the end of the season, and there's a few discussions on various media regarding what the Premier League lineup should be. I'm not sure if I've mentioned this here, but I think that they should get rid of the Masters (there's very little money in it, it's unranked and you're not seeing anyone you won't be seeing extremely frequently all year, so why bother?) and use that weekend as a Premier League play-in. I'd have it provide two spots from eight invites, with a double elimination setup to allow everyone plenty of TV time - have Saturday afternoon be the winners round 1 (four games), Saturday evening be the winners round 2 and losers round 1 (four games), Sunday afternoon have the losers round 2 and 3 (three games), and then Sunday evening have the winners final and then losers round 4 and the final (three games). This setup would naturally allow a slightly longer match at the business end on Sunday (something like race to 10 on Saturday, race to 12 on Sunday). So what would my lineup be?
van Gerwen, Gary Anderson and Wright are locks to be in the top 4 and get an automatic spot. Suljovic and Gurney have to be in there as well based on what they've done, and one is probable to be the final top 4 spot regardless. Barney seems certain based on popularity (especially given no Phil) and seems to still be doing enough to warrant a place on merit. Chisnall is probably the best English player at the moment and has a win on tour, which takes us up to seven, and I'd probably give my eighth automatic spot to Whitlock, based on three ranking titles this year and making a major final. If someone does something amazing in the remaining majors then he'd be the last man out. This then leaves two spots, which as mentioned above I'd have as a play in - I'd invite the following:
Michael Smith - Euro Tour win, only active player in the FRH top 10 not to be in automatically, still young, high scoring and exciting
James Wade - Would be weird not to at least give him a chance of making it, has done little this year so if he beats this field he'd deserve to be in
Adrian Lewis - Similar to Wade, except he's the better natural talent, has a win on tour this year. Both Lewis and Wade did enough to not get immediately dumped out of this year's Premier League, so should get a shot at staying in
Rob Cross - Incredible opening season, find it hard to give him an automatic place given relative lack of success in TV tournaments, but I doubt you'd find anyone that'd not give him the chance to play in (as an aside, with his win earlier today over Keegan Brown, he is now into the FRH top 20)
Gerwyn Price - Polarising figure, field could use a heel to use some wrestling lingo, can back it up with the game on occasions as seen when he reached the UK Open final
Kyle Anderson - Won a TV event, albeit unranked, has a Pro Tour win, deceptively underranked on most rankings lists due to his absence late last year giving him zeroes where he could easily have picked up 30 grand or more
Joe Cullen - Two Pro Tour titles, seems to be continuing to grow as a player, well inside the top 20 so surely not too ridiculous to offer the chance in a format that includes sixteen players
Corey Cadby - Big wildcard entry, but current world youth champion, nobody is questioning his talent and potential, good World Series performances, this naturally assumes he switches to the PDC full time, sorts visas etc.
Jelle Klaasen and Kim Huybrechts I don't think have done enough all season to warrant entry, for various reasons their previous campaigns were disappointing through no fault of their own, but some cycling of players seems necessary. From other names in the FRH top 20, Phil's retiring, Benito's done nothing all year, if he was going to get in it should have been last season, Alan Norris has had way too many events go horribly wrong for my liking, and Ian White's been quiet this season and, despite his quality, isn't the sort of name I think people would flock in to see.
It's getting close to the end of the season, and there's a few discussions on various media regarding what the Premier League lineup should be. I'm not sure if I've mentioned this here, but I think that they should get rid of the Masters (there's very little money in it, it's unranked and you're not seeing anyone you won't be seeing extremely frequently all year, so why bother?) and use that weekend as a Premier League play-in. I'd have it provide two spots from eight invites, with a double elimination setup to allow everyone plenty of TV time - have Saturday afternoon be the winners round 1 (four games), Saturday evening be the winners round 2 and losers round 1 (four games), Sunday afternoon have the losers round 2 and 3 (three games), and then Sunday evening have the winners final and then losers round 4 and the final (three games). This setup would naturally allow a slightly longer match at the business end on Sunday (something like race to 10 on Saturday, race to 12 on Sunday). So what would my lineup be?
van Gerwen, Gary Anderson and Wright are locks to be in the top 4 and get an automatic spot. Suljovic and Gurney have to be in there as well based on what they've done, and one is probable to be the final top 4 spot regardless. Barney seems certain based on popularity (especially given no Phil) and seems to still be doing enough to warrant a place on merit. Chisnall is probably the best English player at the moment and has a win on tour, which takes us up to seven, and I'd probably give my eighth automatic spot to Whitlock, based on three ranking titles this year and making a major final. If someone does something amazing in the remaining majors then he'd be the last man out. This then leaves two spots, which as mentioned above I'd have as a play in - I'd invite the following:
Michael Smith - Euro Tour win, only active player in the FRH top 10 not to be in automatically, still young, high scoring and exciting
James Wade - Would be weird not to at least give him a chance of making it, has done little this year so if he beats this field he'd deserve to be in
Adrian Lewis - Similar to Wade, except he's the better natural talent, has a win on tour this year. Both Lewis and Wade did enough to not get immediately dumped out of this year's Premier League, so should get a shot at staying in
Rob Cross - Incredible opening season, find it hard to give him an automatic place given relative lack of success in TV tournaments, but I doubt you'd find anyone that'd not give him the chance to play in (as an aside, with his win earlier today over Keegan Brown, he is now into the FRH top 20)
Gerwyn Price - Polarising figure, field could use a heel to use some wrestling lingo, can back it up with the game on occasions as seen when he reached the UK Open final
Kyle Anderson - Won a TV event, albeit unranked, has a Pro Tour win, deceptively underranked on most rankings lists due to his absence late last year giving him zeroes where he could easily have picked up 30 grand or more
Joe Cullen - Two Pro Tour titles, seems to be continuing to grow as a player, well inside the top 20 so surely not too ridiculous to offer the chance in a format that includes sixteen players
Corey Cadby - Big wildcard entry, but current world youth champion, nobody is questioning his talent and potential, good World Series performances, this naturally assumes he switches to the PDC full time, sorts visas etc.
Jelle Klaasen and Kim Huybrechts I don't think have done enough all season to warrant entry, for various reasons their previous campaigns were disappointing through no fault of their own, but some cycling of players seems necessary. From other names in the FRH top 20, Phil's retiring, Benito's done nothing all year, if he was going to get in it should have been last season, Alan Norris has had way too many events go horribly wrong for my liking, and Ian White's been quiet this season and, despite his quality, isn't the sort of name I think people would flock in to see.
Saturday, 14 October 2017
ET12 round 2 bets
Quick one this before the session starts:
van de Pas/Brown - lacking data on Brown, the data I have leans towards Benito even at the current price, Brown's match (I don't have yesterday's games in my database yet) and the players' respective form should even it out a bit, enough to make it a no bet.
Norris/Richardson - there might be tiny value on Richardson, my data has it as quite close to the current line but possibly pushing Richardson over the edge on form, but it's close enough to ignore. 7/4 would likely be a bet, 6/4 not so much.
Price/Clayton - Clayton, fresh off the back of a tour victory, at near 2/1 against someone in indifferent form who he's already beaten on a much bigger stage? Yes please, 0.25u Clayton 9/5
Smith/Wattimena - Smith's rightly a big favourite here, may be very close to a Smith bet actually, but Wattimena seems to be doing enough to not punt here when also factoring in Smith's swingy form on the European Tour.
Chisnall/Wilson - Chisnall's a big odds on favourite and I really can't see Wilson having enough to win often enough to bet him, but he probably pulls the upset often enough to stop me going on Chizzy either.
Cullen/West - Cullen's been pretty good all year and isn't playing badly at all, I think he's got a much better chance than the market suggests against West, who won 6-1 yesterday but didn't average well in doing so, think Cullen grinds this out comfortably, 0.5u Cullen 1/2
White/van der Voort - seems a fairly even game. I have White having a small edge, so does the market, gun to my head I'd punt VVDV for the upset but it's close enough not to.
Bunting/Eidams - I lack the data on Eidams to properly assess his chances here, Bunting looked alright in Dublin so I'll leave this alone.
Huybrechts/Aspinall - Aspinall looks live here, I'm not sure whether he's quite live enough to get there at 7/4, the foot might be slightly off the pedal after getting the win that looks like it's got him in the Euros, so will avoid this.
Klaasen/Dobey - A lot of the data on Dobey is fairly old, that does put it as a Dobey bet, but I'm reluctant to do so, he's got the critical win already so may relax a touch. Could be worth it if you fancy an upset bet, Klaasen isn't exactly reliable.
Cross/Caven - Cross looks like a juggernaut right now, and is a huge favourite and rightly so. 1u Cross 1/4
Wright/Schindler - Schindler's got the important work done, can't see Wright dropping this one - 1u Wright 1/5
Whitlock/Ratajski - Critical game for the Pole, both are in great form, the line favours Whitlock but not by much, my data favours Whitlock by a lot but it seems a bit false given the situation.
van Gerwen/Lerchbacher - LOL
King/Dekker - Line looks close enough, both are playing OK, think King may be undervalued a touch but not enough to start betting.
Gurney/Boulton - Not touching that at the line with the lack of info on Boulton.
van de Pas/Brown - lacking data on Brown, the data I have leans towards Benito even at the current price, Brown's match (I don't have yesterday's games in my database yet) and the players' respective form should even it out a bit, enough to make it a no bet.
Norris/Richardson - there might be tiny value on Richardson, my data has it as quite close to the current line but possibly pushing Richardson over the edge on form, but it's close enough to ignore. 7/4 would likely be a bet, 6/4 not so much.
Price/Clayton - Clayton, fresh off the back of a tour victory, at near 2/1 against someone in indifferent form who he's already beaten on a much bigger stage? Yes please, 0.25u Clayton 9/5
Smith/Wattimena - Smith's rightly a big favourite here, may be very close to a Smith bet actually, but Wattimena seems to be doing enough to not punt here when also factoring in Smith's swingy form on the European Tour.
Chisnall/Wilson - Chisnall's a big odds on favourite and I really can't see Wilson having enough to win often enough to bet him, but he probably pulls the upset often enough to stop me going on Chizzy either.
Cullen/West - Cullen's been pretty good all year and isn't playing badly at all, I think he's got a much better chance than the market suggests against West, who won 6-1 yesterday but didn't average well in doing so, think Cullen grinds this out comfortably, 0.5u Cullen 1/2
White/van der Voort - seems a fairly even game. I have White having a small edge, so does the market, gun to my head I'd punt VVDV for the upset but it's close enough not to.
Bunting/Eidams - I lack the data on Eidams to properly assess his chances here, Bunting looked alright in Dublin so I'll leave this alone.
Huybrechts/Aspinall - Aspinall looks live here, I'm not sure whether he's quite live enough to get there at 7/4, the foot might be slightly off the pedal after getting the win that looks like it's got him in the Euros, so will avoid this.
Klaasen/Dobey - A lot of the data on Dobey is fairly old, that does put it as a Dobey bet, but I'm reluctant to do so, he's got the critical win already so may relax a touch. Could be worth it if you fancy an upset bet, Klaasen isn't exactly reliable.
Cross/Caven - Cross looks like a juggernaut right now, and is a huge favourite and rightly so. 1u Cross 1/4
Wright/Schindler - Schindler's got the important work done, can't see Wright dropping this one - 1u Wright 1/5
Whitlock/Ratajski - Critical game for the Pole, both are in great form, the line favours Whitlock but not by much, my data favours Whitlock by a lot but it seems a bit false given the situation.
van Gerwen/Lerchbacher - LOL
King/Dekker - Line looks close enough, both are playing OK, think King may be undervalued a touch but not enough to start betting.
Gurney/Boulton - Not touching that at the line with the lack of info on Boulton.
Friday, 13 October 2017
Göttingen round 1 - analysis
Have watched nothing due to equally important priorities due to beers and pub, but will quickly run down each of the games and what it means:
Todd/Wattimena - Not a huge deal, Todd couldn't do anything and Wattimena was safe for the worlds regardless, he keeps his Euros chances alive but it's a long shot.
Evans/Lerchbacher - Similar situation, except Lerchbacher has an extra grand on the Euro tour, but as he plays MvG I'm ignoring these possibilities entirely.
Worsley/Brown - Brown's basically got in the worlds, and while Worsley's quietly had an OK season, he couldn't do anything. Brown would need at least an evening session on the Sunday before anything changes.
Razma/Wilson - Madars has come into form a bit but left it too late to do anything this year, Wilson's win is hugely key as he was very much on the Hasselt bubble before today. Without working out tiebreakers he may be in already but at the very least he may just be relying on Jonny Clayton not going crazy, which is entirely possible.
Clayton/Bilderl - See the above, Clayton needs to keep on winning, the worlds was safe even before Wednesday but to make Hasselt he may need more, fortunately he's in a section of the draw where that's viable, Price then Smith/Wattimena isn't that ridiculous a section.
Meeuwisse/Caven - Nothing really riding on this.
Quantock/West - This was a heartbreaker for team Quanny. The loss, while not knocking him out of Hasselt as far as I am aware, has made his position really precarious, but more importantly it killed any chance of making the worlds directly.
Schindler/Bowles - Martin was already a lock for Hasselt, but this score has taken quite a lot of the random scenarios that would deny him an Ally Pally berth out of the equation. It's probably mathematically certain at this stage, but if I'm wrong I'm not going to bok him and say he's in.
Ratajski/Thornton - Ratajski has declined his BDO worlds spot, which seems absolutely fine given that he'd only get a spot into the prelims, and that doing so gives him free entry into the PDC Euros, which financially makes a lot of sense. If he can beat Whitlock I think he's in the PDC worlds, which would be huge.
van der Voort/Blum - Vincent picked up another grand which, while he's safe in the worlds regardless, just gives a bit more buffer room in case there's random weird stuff that could threaten his seed. Blum seemed to play OK and is very much looking like one to watch as the new world youth Master.
Richardson/van den Bergh - Huge result for James, who, considering other results, looks to have locked a Hasselt spot and taken any weird worlds qualification scenarios out of the equation, if they still exist. Dimitri was safe in everything that this event affects, so no huge loss there.
de Zwaan/Eidams - Bit of a surprise result, but the game affects nothing re: the majors.
Aspinall/Wade - Oh god James, what was that? He's now confirmed out of Hasselt, Nathan's got to be very close to confirmed if not confirmed, Aspinall would need a final to get anything extra out of this, but wow. At least Wade tried, unlike other big names.
Dobey/Allenstein - Other results had helped a lot, but Chris's win here looks to have made the worlds safe.
Painter/Boulton - Critical loss for Kevin, as we stand he's the last man into Ally Pally, but one win for Ratajski tomorrow and he's done. Until someone has visa issues.
Dekker/Kist - Oh dear Christian. Dekker dotted the I's and crossed the T's today, it probably didn't need doing but you may as well make sure.
Round 1 in the bag. If bets arise for round 2 I'll post them up tomorrow morning with minimal writeup just so you can get on.
Todd/Wattimena - Not a huge deal, Todd couldn't do anything and Wattimena was safe for the worlds regardless, he keeps his Euros chances alive but it's a long shot.
Evans/Lerchbacher - Similar situation, except Lerchbacher has an extra grand on the Euro tour, but as he plays MvG I'm ignoring these possibilities entirely.
Worsley/Brown - Brown's basically got in the worlds, and while Worsley's quietly had an OK season, he couldn't do anything. Brown would need at least an evening session on the Sunday before anything changes.
Razma/Wilson - Madars has come into form a bit but left it too late to do anything this year, Wilson's win is hugely key as he was very much on the Hasselt bubble before today. Without working out tiebreakers he may be in already but at the very least he may just be relying on Jonny Clayton not going crazy, which is entirely possible.
Clayton/Bilderl - See the above, Clayton needs to keep on winning, the worlds was safe even before Wednesday but to make Hasselt he may need more, fortunately he's in a section of the draw where that's viable, Price then Smith/Wattimena isn't that ridiculous a section.
Meeuwisse/Caven - Nothing really riding on this.
Quantock/West - This was a heartbreaker for team Quanny. The loss, while not knocking him out of Hasselt as far as I am aware, has made his position really precarious, but more importantly it killed any chance of making the worlds directly.
Schindler/Bowles - Martin was already a lock for Hasselt, but this score has taken quite a lot of the random scenarios that would deny him an Ally Pally berth out of the equation. It's probably mathematically certain at this stage, but if I'm wrong I'm not going to bok him and say he's in.
Ratajski/Thornton - Ratajski has declined his BDO worlds spot, which seems absolutely fine given that he'd only get a spot into the prelims, and that doing so gives him free entry into the PDC Euros, which financially makes a lot of sense. If he can beat Whitlock I think he's in the PDC worlds, which would be huge.
van der Voort/Blum - Vincent picked up another grand which, while he's safe in the worlds regardless, just gives a bit more buffer room in case there's random weird stuff that could threaten his seed. Blum seemed to play OK and is very much looking like one to watch as the new world youth Master.
Richardson/van den Bergh - Huge result for James, who, considering other results, looks to have locked a Hasselt spot and taken any weird worlds qualification scenarios out of the equation, if they still exist. Dimitri was safe in everything that this event affects, so no huge loss there.
de Zwaan/Eidams - Bit of a surprise result, but the game affects nothing re: the majors.
Aspinall/Wade - Oh god James, what was that? He's now confirmed out of Hasselt, Nathan's got to be very close to confirmed if not confirmed, Aspinall would need a final to get anything extra out of this, but wow. At least Wade tried, unlike other big names.
Dobey/Allenstein - Other results had helped a lot, but Chris's win here looks to have made the worlds safe.
Painter/Boulton - Critical loss for Kevin, as we stand he's the last man into Ally Pally, but one win for Ratajski tomorrow and he's done. Until someone has visa issues.
Dekker/Kist - Oh dear Christian. Dekker dotted the I's and crossed the T's today, it probably didn't need doing but you may as well make sure.
Round 1 in the bag. If bets arise for round 2 I'll post them up tomorrow morning with minimal writeup just so you can get on.
Wednesday, 11 October 2017
Players Championship - done!
If you had a Clayton/Wilson/Caven/de Zwaan last four, then can I have a few ounces of whatever you're smoking please?
Big congrats to Clayton for getting his first victory, Caven managing a semi final from nowhere to grab a Minehead spot, Alcinas made a quarter to do the same, while the likes of Dekker, de Graaf and Dobey did what they need to in order to make it there. Also congrats to Rob Cross for winning the whole thing and getting the number 1 seed
I've thrown together a few spreadsheets, finding out the following:
- There's a huge face off in Göttingen between Alan Norris and Kim Huybrechts to see who can lose the most ranking money on the European Tour through the seeds losing in round 2 get nothing rule, both of them on a tie for £12,000 lost. If they both miraculously win, Ian White or Benito van de Pas could join them in a tie for first.
- Terry Jenkins is, barring playing the Grand Slam qualifier, winning it and then getting out of his group as a minimum, out of the World Championship following James Wilson's final today. It puts him £4,250 ahead of Jenkins for the final seed with all certain qualification for majors counted, with Wilson getting another grand guaranteed from Europe this weekend.
- As such, it makes calculations for Ally Pally a lot easier. The seeds are presently van Gerwen, Wright, Gary Anderson, Gurney, Adrian Lewis, Suljovic, Taylor, Chisnall, van Barneveld, Whitlock, Wade, Klaasen, Michael Smith, van de Pas, Norris, Price, White, Kim Huybrechts, Cullen, King, Bunting, Beaton, Kyle Anderson, Darren Webster, Reyes, Thornton, Cross, Mark Webster, Henderson, Pipe, van der Voort and Wilson. Of those just outside, Kist has the best realistic chance, sitting £7,250 behind Wilson and also in ET12, but unlike anyone else just outside, he has the European Championship in the bag for more potential money. Wilson however looks pretty decent to make it himself, but not a certainty. Regardless, everyone that might be in danger at the lower ends of things is safe to make it from the Pro Tour regardless, barring VERY weird Grand Slam results.
- That leaves the Pro Tour as the alternative, with Clayton now topping the standings above North, Kist and Ronny Huybrechts, who are well ahead of everyone else. Wattimena, van den Bergh, West, Lerchbacher and Jacques all look very safe with just the European Tour to go, all being more than three grand ahead of last man out Martin Schindler, and with more to add in Göttingen (except for Jacques). Richardson, Dekker, Keegan Brown and Lennon should be OK, with all but Lennon also in Göttingen, all are safely ahead of last man in Darren Johnson and last man out Martin Schindler (who can qualify for ET12 through the home nation qualifier, so the biggest weekend of his career so far potentially - Johnson didn't qualify). Dobey and Painter are both just ahead of Johnson as a result of this weekend's minimum grand, but can easily be overhauled by Schindler if he wins the qualifier, while Quantock and Ratajski are both outside but within striking distance of Johnson with a win, and reaching Sunday would put both over Dobey and Painter should they go out on Friday. Nobody else in ET12 is close, the next nearest being Aspinall but he'd need to reach at least a semi final. Just outside are Brendan Dolan, whose Ally Pally hopes may rely on a Minehead run through at least Mervyn King and probably Darren Webster, Robbie Green and Ryan Searle also fell just short, but can't realistically get a seed.
Everything's going to be a lot clearer after this weekend, which could easily have some huge pressure games dependent on the draw, both in terms of the worlds and also in terms of locking in the last few Hasselt spots. I'll hopefully be back late tomorrow with some quick odds, failing that Saturday morning. Regardless, that PDPA qualifier is going to be stacked.
Big congrats to Clayton for getting his first victory, Caven managing a semi final from nowhere to grab a Minehead spot, Alcinas made a quarter to do the same, while the likes of Dekker, de Graaf and Dobey did what they need to in order to make it there. Also congrats to Rob Cross for winning the whole thing and getting the number 1 seed
I've thrown together a few spreadsheets, finding out the following:
- There's a huge face off in Göttingen between Alan Norris and Kim Huybrechts to see who can lose the most ranking money on the European Tour through the seeds losing in round 2 get nothing rule, both of them on a tie for £12,000 lost. If they both miraculously win, Ian White or Benito van de Pas could join them in a tie for first.
- Terry Jenkins is, barring playing the Grand Slam qualifier, winning it and then getting out of his group as a minimum, out of the World Championship following James Wilson's final today. It puts him £4,250 ahead of Jenkins for the final seed with all certain qualification for majors counted, with Wilson getting another grand guaranteed from Europe this weekend.
- As such, it makes calculations for Ally Pally a lot easier. The seeds are presently van Gerwen, Wright, Gary Anderson, Gurney, Adrian Lewis, Suljovic, Taylor, Chisnall, van Barneveld, Whitlock, Wade, Klaasen, Michael Smith, van de Pas, Norris, Price, White, Kim Huybrechts, Cullen, King, Bunting, Beaton, Kyle Anderson, Darren Webster, Reyes, Thornton, Cross, Mark Webster, Henderson, Pipe, van der Voort and Wilson. Of those just outside, Kist has the best realistic chance, sitting £7,250 behind Wilson and also in ET12, but unlike anyone else just outside, he has the European Championship in the bag for more potential money. Wilson however looks pretty decent to make it himself, but not a certainty. Regardless, everyone that might be in danger at the lower ends of things is safe to make it from the Pro Tour regardless, barring VERY weird Grand Slam results.
- That leaves the Pro Tour as the alternative, with Clayton now topping the standings above North, Kist and Ronny Huybrechts, who are well ahead of everyone else. Wattimena, van den Bergh, West, Lerchbacher and Jacques all look very safe with just the European Tour to go, all being more than three grand ahead of last man out Martin Schindler, and with more to add in Göttingen (except for Jacques). Richardson, Dekker, Keegan Brown and Lennon should be OK, with all but Lennon also in Göttingen, all are safely ahead of last man in Darren Johnson and last man out Martin Schindler (who can qualify for ET12 through the home nation qualifier, so the biggest weekend of his career so far potentially - Johnson didn't qualify). Dobey and Painter are both just ahead of Johnson as a result of this weekend's minimum grand, but can easily be overhauled by Schindler if he wins the qualifier, while Quantock and Ratajski are both outside but within striking distance of Johnson with a win, and reaching Sunday would put both over Dobey and Painter should they go out on Friday. Nobody else in ET12 is close, the next nearest being Aspinall but he'd need to reach at least a semi final. Just outside are Brendan Dolan, whose Ally Pally hopes may rely on a Minehead run through at least Mervyn King and probably Darren Webster, Robbie Green and Ryan Searle also fell just short, but can't realistically get a seed.
Everything's going to be a lot clearer after this weekend, which could easily have some huge pressure games dependent on the draw, both in terms of the worlds and also in terms of locking in the last few Hasselt spots. I'll hopefully be back late tomorrow with some quick odds, failing that Saturday morning. Regardless, that PDPA qualifier is going to be stacked.
Tuesday, 10 October 2017
FAQ
Not really an accurate title, given that these questions have not been asked frequently, or for that matter asked, but I thought with it getting towards the business end of the season I'd answer a few things that might come up often:
What was with the name?
It comes from the old blog Fire Joe Morgan, criticising bad journalism/punditry etc, and Harrington's the worst of the lot (at least in darts, if I was given godly P45 powers to use on one commentator, he'd be at the back of a queue containing Dennis Taylor, ITV's entire football unit, and if someone ever gives him a job again, Phil Simms), lacking the knowledge of a Part, Nicholson or a lot of those who aren't even ex-players, lacking the entertainment value of a Mardle, continually likening darts players to electricians or other tradesmen, having an irrational fear of switching from one double to another at the same level straight in the middle of two that most players like (nobody thinks 8's to 4's is a bad switch, oddly enough, despite 4's being the same height as 9's, and 8's being close to the opposite side of the board), seemingly being completely clueless as to why anyone would ever switch from treble 20 despite it being obvious to anyone who's analysed things even slightly, I could go on.
What are the FRH rankings you post up after each event?
I posted up on this right at the start of the blog, but that's over 120 posts away by now. They work exactly the same as the PDC rankings except they favour recent results, namely keeping everything at 100% of value for around four months, then degrading at 1% every six days until, after two years, they reach zero at the same time as the official rankings do. They also do not arbitrarily remove money for non tour card holders at the end of the year, don't arbitrarily score a first round seed loss on the European Tour as zero.
How do you derive a lot of the winning chances you list?
I have a large spreadsheet containing the results of (at present - edited before the 2019 worlds) over 6,000 darts matches on both sides of the PDC/BDO divide which tells me how quickly each player finished the leg when they won, and how many points they scored if they didn't. It's easy from there with a pivot table to tally everything for a player over a given time frame, then look at percentages of how quickly they kill legs. I then throw them against each other - it's a fairly simple formula, if someone on throw finishes in four visits they win (I exclude the remote chance of a nine darter), if they finish in five visits they win unless the other guy finishes in four visits, etc etc. These then give chances for each player to win/lose a leg on throw, from there I can extrapolate to set victories and so on.
What are all those unit things that you list in the bets?
It's typical to vary a bet size depending on confidence and odds, 1 unit would be a standard bet for however much you want to bet, if something's a longer price or I have less confidence I might reduce the amount bet or vice versa. It's easier to track this way and you can then multiply by whatever your standard stake would be. ROI means the same as it does in normal usage.
Do you play yourself and do you suck?
Yes and yes. Presently using 24g Winmau Simon Whitlock darts (not the current version, from about 2014-15 or so), cheap standard poly stems and thick standard flights (pink, naturally) off of Darts Corner, all carried in Target's Tacoma wallet which is a great bit of kit. Previously used 25g Designa straight knurled darts, again from Darts Corner.
Will edit this post as and when I think of new stuff to add and/or get asked relevant questions.
What was with the name?
It comes from the old blog Fire Joe Morgan, criticising bad journalism/punditry etc, and Harrington's the worst of the lot (at least in darts, if I was given godly P45 powers to use on one commentator, he'd be at the back of a queue containing Dennis Taylor, ITV's entire football unit, and if someone ever gives him a job again, Phil Simms), lacking the knowledge of a Part, Nicholson or a lot of those who aren't even ex-players, lacking the entertainment value of a Mardle, continually likening darts players to electricians or other tradesmen, having an irrational fear of switching from one double to another at the same level straight in the middle of two that most players like (nobody thinks 8's to 4's is a bad switch, oddly enough, despite 4's being the same height as 9's, and 8's being close to the opposite side of the board), seemingly being completely clueless as to why anyone would ever switch from treble 20 despite it being obvious to anyone who's analysed things even slightly, I could go on.
What are the FRH rankings you post up after each event?
I posted up on this right at the start of the blog, but that's over 120 posts away by now. They work exactly the same as the PDC rankings except they favour recent results, namely keeping everything at 100% of value for around four months, then degrading at 1% every six days until, after two years, they reach zero at the same time as the official rankings do. They also do not arbitrarily remove money for non tour card holders at the end of the year, don't arbitrarily score a first round seed loss on the European Tour as zero.
How do you derive a lot of the winning chances you list?
I have a large spreadsheet containing the results of (at present - edited before the 2019 worlds) over 6,000 darts matches on both sides of the PDC/BDO divide which tells me how quickly each player finished the leg when they won, and how many points they scored if they didn't. It's easy from there with a pivot table to tally everything for a player over a given time frame, then look at percentages of how quickly they kill legs. I then throw them against each other - it's a fairly simple formula, if someone on throw finishes in four visits they win (I exclude the remote chance of a nine darter), if they finish in five visits they win unless the other guy finishes in four visits, etc etc. These then give chances for each player to win/lose a leg on throw, from there I can extrapolate to set victories and so on.
What are all those unit things that you list in the bets?
It's typical to vary a bet size depending on confidence and odds, 1 unit would be a standard bet for however much you want to bet, if something's a longer price or I have less confidence I might reduce the amount bet or vice versa. It's easier to track this way and you can then multiply by whatever your standard stake would be. ROI means the same as it does in normal usage.
Do you play yourself and do you suck?
Yes and yes. Presently using 24g Winmau Simon Whitlock darts (not the current version, from about 2014-15 or so), cheap standard poly stems and thick standard flights (pink, naturally) off of Darts Corner, all carried in Target's Tacoma wallet which is a great bit of kit. Previously used 25g Designa straight knurled darts, again from Darts Corner.
Will edit this post as and when I think of new stuff to add and/or get asked relevant questions.
Players Championship 21
Rob Cross grabbed yet another title in an incredible debut season, while Adrian Lewis had somewhat of a return to form, and there were a couple of surprise semi-finalists in Jermaine Wattimena and Willie O'Connor, Wattimena ending any doubt about worlds qualification with that result. Yesterday I posted up players high in the FRH rankings who were in doubts for various comps, how did they do today?
Dobey - first round bust to Andy Boulton. It's not looking good, he requires, ideally, to at least win his board tomorrow (unlike today, it looks like he won't be seeded, although today he was seeded on Wright's board, so whether that'd be a help, who knows), hope that Jenkins misses on the worlds to effectively free up another Pro Tour spot, and at least win one game in Göttingen, if not reach Sunday.
Jenkins - got to the board final but then got thrashed by de Zwaan. With Adie waiting in the last 16 he's not left much on the table, but every little bit counts. Needs a good run and then to pray to god that the likes of Wilson, Kist, Dolan etc don't sun run at any future majors, or even this weekend as most people just below him are playing in Europe.
van den Bergh - first round casualty to Max Hopp. While he's safe for the worlds, he is now outside the top 64 so needs two wins tomorrow to start to feel safe.
Hopp - went out the round after to Robert Owen, needing snookers at this stage to make anything.
Lewis - only made round two where he ran into Daryl Gurney, needs a quarter final to make Minehead and, with not playing Göttingen, a round further to stand any chance at making the worlds.
Caven - made the board final, losing to Willie O'Connor, a quarter final in theory could get him into Minehead if results went perfectly for him, but realistically would need a semi.
Payne - out round one to Jonny Clayton, not the easiest draw but not the hardest, making the board final tomorrow might be enough to make Minehead, but would like to win the board to be really safe.
Meulenkamp - got Rob Cross round one and didn't win a leg. Ouch. Presently a grand off Minehead, with no Europe this weekend he's left himself too much to do for the worlds barring a run like he had in Riesa.
Gilding - drew Steve West first round and went out, needs a grand minimum and realistically a board win to reach Minehead.
de Graaf - lost round one to Kist, which ended realistic Ally Pally hopes, but as stated yesterday he was at least the right side of the Minehead line. Would require a bizarre set of results for him to not make it at this stage, one win should be enough to seal a spot.
Rodriguez - not a bad effort to get to the board final and run Wade close, but nowhere near the sort of spectacular performance needed to get close to any sort of qualification.
Murnan - now just the right side of the line after a close win over Darren Johnson before running into Lewis, but his position is incredibly precarious and needs a board final tomorrow to even start to feel safe.
McGowan - lost first round to Callan Rydz so for all intents and purposes is done.
Petersen - got a tough opening round draw in Joe Cullen, ran him close but running him close doesn't make money so he's looking at a quarter final to stand any chance of Minehead.
Michael - edged out in a decider round one to Justin Pipe, so will need at least a couple of wins tomorrow, and winning the board to feel really safe. He doesn't have Europe this weekend as a backup, so for Ally Pally he's going to need a semi final run and to hope that results go his way.
Evans - lost to Harry Robinson in a not particularly close game, so almost certainly done for the season.
Dekker - lost round one to O'Connor, probably needs one win to be safe for Minehead, his worlds qualification is a touch closer following today's results, but with Göttingen as a last chance saloon if results go very odd, he's got room to play with.
van Duijvenbode - opening round loss to Warrick Scheffer, so barring at least a quarter final he's going to need a regional qualifier to have any chance of anything.
Pallett - lost opening round to Harry Ward. Probably needs one win to be sure of Minehead, which is all he can qualify for at this stage.
Other people to keep an eye out on tomorrow for worlds qualification purposes - Peter Jacques, James Richardson and Keegan Brown are all in the worlds right now, but certainly not immune to strange results. Brown and Richardson are in Europe at the weekend so will have that as a last chance if things go badly. Lennon, Painter, Dekker and Schindler are the last four in, but should be beneficiaries of Jenkins dropping out of the top 32. Dekker and Painter have Europe as a boost, Lennon doesn't (who lost to Painter in the final qualifying round, ironically enough) while Schindler should get through the home nation qualifier, the extra grand should make a big difference. Darren Johnson and Chris Quantock are currently the last men out, Quantock has two shots to get money with Europe this weekend but is £250 behind Johnson as things stand. Dobey and Ratajski are a further £250 behind again, Dobey we've mentioned and Ratajski isn't playing, so would need to win a game in Göttingen, possibly two. Green and Dolan are further behind again and needing a minimum of a board final, Dolan still has an outside shot of making Ally Pally as a seed, he's not far off Jenkins but is really going to need a good run at Minehead and hoping that in particular Christian Kist doesn't do well anywhere, who's currently ahead of him and has an extra major to try to hit paydirt in. Everyone else is looking at miracles, although James Wilson is in the mix for a seed as well, West could bring himself into contention with a good run.
Dobey - first round bust to Andy Boulton. It's not looking good, he requires, ideally, to at least win his board tomorrow (unlike today, it looks like he won't be seeded, although today he was seeded on Wright's board, so whether that'd be a help, who knows), hope that Jenkins misses on the worlds to effectively free up another Pro Tour spot, and at least win one game in Göttingen, if not reach Sunday.
Jenkins - got to the board final but then got thrashed by de Zwaan. With Adie waiting in the last 16 he's not left much on the table, but every little bit counts. Needs a good run and then to pray to god that the likes of Wilson, Kist, Dolan etc don't sun run at any future majors, or even this weekend as most people just below him are playing in Europe.
van den Bergh - first round casualty to Max Hopp. While he's safe for the worlds, he is now outside the top 64 so needs two wins tomorrow to start to feel safe.
Hopp - went out the round after to Robert Owen, needing snookers at this stage to make anything.
Lewis - only made round two where he ran into Daryl Gurney, needs a quarter final to make Minehead and, with not playing Göttingen, a round further to stand any chance at making the worlds.
Caven - made the board final, losing to Willie O'Connor, a quarter final in theory could get him into Minehead if results went perfectly for him, but realistically would need a semi.
Payne - out round one to Jonny Clayton, not the easiest draw but not the hardest, making the board final tomorrow might be enough to make Minehead, but would like to win the board to be really safe.
Meulenkamp - got Rob Cross round one and didn't win a leg. Ouch. Presently a grand off Minehead, with no Europe this weekend he's left himself too much to do for the worlds barring a run like he had in Riesa.
Gilding - drew Steve West first round and went out, needs a grand minimum and realistically a board win to reach Minehead.
de Graaf - lost round one to Kist, which ended realistic Ally Pally hopes, but as stated yesterday he was at least the right side of the Minehead line. Would require a bizarre set of results for him to not make it at this stage, one win should be enough to seal a spot.
Rodriguez - not a bad effort to get to the board final and run Wade close, but nowhere near the sort of spectacular performance needed to get close to any sort of qualification.
Murnan - now just the right side of the line after a close win over Darren Johnson before running into Lewis, but his position is incredibly precarious and needs a board final tomorrow to even start to feel safe.
McGowan - lost first round to Callan Rydz so for all intents and purposes is done.
Petersen - got a tough opening round draw in Joe Cullen, ran him close but running him close doesn't make money so he's looking at a quarter final to stand any chance of Minehead.
Michael - edged out in a decider round one to Justin Pipe, so will need at least a couple of wins tomorrow, and winning the board to feel really safe. He doesn't have Europe this weekend as a backup, so for Ally Pally he's going to need a semi final run and to hope that results go his way.
Evans - lost to Harry Robinson in a not particularly close game, so almost certainly done for the season.
Dekker - lost round one to O'Connor, probably needs one win to be safe for Minehead, his worlds qualification is a touch closer following today's results, but with Göttingen as a last chance saloon if results go very odd, he's got room to play with.
van Duijvenbode - opening round loss to Warrick Scheffer, so barring at least a quarter final he's going to need a regional qualifier to have any chance of anything.
Pallett - lost opening round to Harry Ward. Probably needs one win to be sure of Minehead, which is all he can qualify for at this stage.
Other people to keep an eye out on tomorrow for worlds qualification purposes - Peter Jacques, James Richardson and Keegan Brown are all in the worlds right now, but certainly not immune to strange results. Brown and Richardson are in Europe at the weekend so will have that as a last chance if things go badly. Lennon, Painter, Dekker and Schindler are the last four in, but should be beneficiaries of Jenkins dropping out of the top 32. Dekker and Painter have Europe as a boost, Lennon doesn't (who lost to Painter in the final qualifying round, ironically enough) while Schindler should get through the home nation qualifier, the extra grand should make a big difference. Darren Johnson and Chris Quantock are currently the last men out, Quantock has two shots to get money with Europe this weekend but is £250 behind Johnson as things stand. Dobey and Ratajski are a further £250 behind again, Dobey we've mentioned and Ratajski isn't playing, so would need to win a game in Göttingen, possibly two. Green and Dolan are further behind again and needing a minimum of a board final, Dolan still has an outside shot of making Ally Pally as a seed, he's not far off Jenkins but is really going to need a good run at Minehead and hoping that in particular Christian Kist doesn't do well anywhere, who's currently ahead of him and has an extra major to try to hit paydirt in. Everyone else is looking at miracles, although James Wilson is in the mix for a seed as well, West could bring himself into contention with a good run.
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