UK Open preview 7/8

(60) Steve Beaton v (120) Andrew Gilding/(UR) Kevin Burness or (UR) Graham Hall

Quite a few old names here, who thought Beaton would be on part seven, but it is what it is. Hall's not an immediately familiar name, but seemingly did play this before ages ago and lost to Robbie Green, tried Q-School and averaged 81, had a little bit of a run in the England Open last year. Burness is more familiar, getting his card back and there's more than enough still in the tank with Kevin to think he should take the first round comfortably. Gilding's finest hour came in this event with that semi final run, he's probably a touch better than Burness but I don't think there's necessarily a massive amount in it. Nor for that matter against Beaton, again it's a case where I think he's incrementally slightly better, but it's fairly tight (master computer actually gives Gilding the tiniest of edges) and it'll be anyone's game.

(63) Joe Murnan/(95) Matt Campbell or (211) Sebastian Bialecki v (72) Keegan Brown

Will go through round by round. Campbell against Bialecki is arguably the tie of the first round, Matt's always looked very solid on TV and had a great Challenge Tour season last year, while Bialecki made a huge name for himself twelve months ago in the same event, we've got enough data on both to draw a line and it seems like it's around 55/45 in favour of the Canadian. Murnan's up next, the highest ranked player in this section and may be around the same level of favourite against Campbell as Matt was against the Pole, another tight one one the cards. Then we've got Keegan Brown, he won't necessarily like this draw and is in a critical season where he really needs to make the worlds to save his card, and anything he can do here could be really helpful. He's probably a little bit better than Joe, call it 60/40 after the best of Joe's form which was early 2021 has dropped off the sample, and he has shown some occasional flashes on the floor, but the pressure is on here to some extent.

(65) Andy Boulton v (112) Danny Lauby or (173) Niko Springer/(276) Dom Taylor or (UR) Paul Hogan

First opening game first, and it's one that's become a heck of a lot more interesting after Niko's exploits in Riesa. Before that I'd have said Lauby quite comfortably, at their peaks I'd say they're fairly similar players, the difference is that we've seen Niko's peak in the last week. On the other one we've got players at opposite ends of their careers, we all know Paul, and while I don't think he's quite at the same level he was when he was doing his giant killing exploits, it should still be a tough ask for Taylor, who seems steady enough and has had some Development Tour success which is why he's here. Maybe the wealth of experience Hogan has will see him through, but the kids these days don't care about that. Seems extremely tight all around, maybe the Lauby/Springer side has the slight edge. Boulton seems a little bit ahead of all of these, very steady player who's not going to give much away, probably one of the biggest surprises not to make the worlds, he should be able to make amends here but I wouldn't consider him a considerable favourite against any of these.

(73) Steve West v (154) John Brown/(216) Damian Mol or (UR) Josh Rock

This seems like an easier one to pick out. Rock's killing it right now, and Mol's level of play, while not bad, really shouldn't be able to get close to Josh on current form. Brown if anything is slightly worse, would be a tight match with Mol but I don't see that happening. West had an awful 2021 but is actually playing a little bit better in the early days of this season with an average of 93 right now on the Pro Tour, it's nothing compared to what Rock is doing, but it's certainly enough that if he can not make mistakes on his own throw, Josh isn't going to have it his own way. Much like Keegan a couple of sections up, West really needs to get some points on the board to save his card, trouble is he's run into maybe the single most in form player in the entire first three rounds.

UK Open preview 6/8

(54) Ron Meulenkamp v (89) Danny Baggish/(102) John Michael

Interesting round two tie here, Baggish is pretty consistent at finishing off within six visits, while Michael's a bit more up and down and you never know if he's going to go 11-12-13 or have a four leg spell where he averages 75. Projection's giving Michael the edge as a result but I think that's an inaccurate call for reasons described and this could go either way. Would be nice to see Danny get through to play Ron, Meulenkamp projects a bit more than 60/40 against Baggish, which is a couple of points more than John does, but it seems like a bit more of a reliable stat, will be still somewhat open given Ron's a little bit off his peak where he was very close to getting into the "tricky" majors, if he didn't actually get into them.

(55) Martin Schindler/(61) Lewy Williams v (62) Jeff Smith

Really interesting bit of the draw as we've got three players ranked very close to each other. Round two's between Williams, who is looking better and better as he continues to gain senior experience, and Schindler, who has continued where he left off at the start of 2022 and despite Lewy getting stronger and stronger, and looking the better of the two players who played in Riesa, doesn't project brilliantly against Martin with a 35% shot, which might be slightly unfair but Martin is still at a top 32 sort of level. If anything, Jeff is the weakest of the lot of these, maybe lacking a little bit in scoring but still extremely solid and won't give much away. I originally thought it was Schindler that got through to round 3 straight off, but it's actually Smith, as the lowest ranked player, who has. Smith rates about 25% against Schindler and 40% against Lewy.

(57) Rowby John Rodriguez/(70) Bradley Brooks v (58) Ryan Meikle/(84) Gordon Mathers

Tough section of the draw as we've got four players with a first round bye who are all solidly ranked in the FRH rankings. Rowby's the pick in terms of that just ahead of Meikle, and I think it's probably these two who advance. Brooks has had a good start to 2022, picking up a Development Tour title and not playing that badly on the main tour, but Rowby's that little bit better, which should project to around a two in three chance, maybe 70/30. Meikle is one who's been threatening to make a breakthrough performance for some time, and is very close to Rowby in the Pro Tour averages this year, and it's far too close to call on year long projections, Rowby having an edge but only by one or two percent, it's that tight. Ryan would need to get past Mathers though, the Australian looking to get money banked to try to retain his card after getting some help via the worlds backdoor, he's got a shot somewhere between one in three and 40% of getting into the money, but his scoring in the Pro Tour is more down at Bradley's level, so the two matches kind of rate to play out the same way.

(59) Boris Krcmar v (156) Zoran Lerchbacher/(187) Ricardo Pietreczko or (190) Scott Taylor

Bit of a European feel to this one, opening game is between Scott Taylor, who's back as a Riley's qualifier where he has made it all the way to round four from before, he comes up against Ricardo who was a bit of a surprise name to claim a card, but he did and in the limited stats we have is scoring kind of the same as Scott is. Maybe Taylor's experience pays off here and gets him into a game with Lerchbacher, who got his card back on points a year ago but hasn't done a great deal with it yet and the scoring doesn't look much better than either of the first round players, so maybe an opportunity here, although I get the feeling it's another game that could go either way. The third round not so much however, Krcmar has got to a Pro Tour semi already this year and is actually averaging higher there than Joe Cullen is, who's won two of them. Ought to easily take a game with Zoran three times out of four, this might be one of the easiest third round ties to call - if he doesn't fluff his lines.

UK Open preview 5/8

(49) Luke Woodhouse v (142) Jack Main/(78) Ted Evetts or (237) Nick Fullwell

First round we've got two players at the opposite ends of their careers, Evetts now being too old for the Development Tour (I think), but is still on the main tour having won his card back on points, the same as Fullwell, who's back after a few years working the Challenge Tour, which he does have a win on. Nick's had an OK start statistically but ranks a point or two behind Evetts so while I think Ted is favoured, it's not by much and Fullwell is certainly live. Main's not really made much of an impression on the second year of his tour card and has yet to win a board on the Pro Tour, scoring the wrong side of 85 makes me think either first round opponent should be favoured. Woodhouse would like a bit of a run here, he's one of many players in the 33-64 range that either need to bink a Pro Tour to get in majors or to progress here in order to push up the rankings, he can't be too displeased with this draw, looked solid last weekend and I think would have about a 60/40 edge on Evetts, and higher against others in all likelihood.

(50) Keane Barry v (69) Jeffrey de Zwaan/(117) David Evans

This is an awkward second round game to call. de Zwaan had an awful 2021 and this would be a good time to kick back into form, while Evans didn't really do the sort of damage many thought he was capable of after winning the Challenge Tour two years ago. Both could do with a result, de Zwaan we know has the better peak game and probably should be a two in three favourite or there abouts. Barry against de Zwaan should be spicy if that happens, Keane looked real good in Riesa and will surely fancy his chances against either, against de Zwaan on year long form the data model is saying it's a coinflip, but we've seen enough from Keane in 2022 that he's starting to turn his sky high potential into improved performances and results. Maybe there might be some value here, we'll see.

(51) Ritchie Edhouse v (75) Max Hopp

Edhouse is another player we saw in Riesa, not hitting the heights in terms of numbers but getting the good scalp of Ryan Searle, and can't be overly displeased with who he's got given that it's an all double bye matchup. Hopp's been a little bit of a forgotten man in the whole German darts scene over the last year or two and is frankly lucky to retain his card, we all know the peak game is easily good enough for the top 64, you don't win a Euro Tour by accident, he just needs to show it, here would be a good place to start as his tour card is in real trouble, this is in stark contrast to Ritchie who, like Evans, got his card through the Challenge Tour at the same time and has pretty much retained it already barring a complete collapse in form. Edhouse projects right between 55% and 60% in this one for me.

(52) Maik Kuivenhoven v (104) Pete Hudson/(110) Nathan Rafferty or (193) John O'Shea

Not really the draw either would like in the first round. Ought to be a very good well spirited game which is unfortunately buried on an outer board, we've got a lot more data on Nathan than John, but he's scoring within a point in my database, which is backed up by the Pro Tour averages where they're about half a point apart. Hudson is down a little bit on both, but not by much, shoving him and Rafferty into the master computer says coinflip which I think is being slightly generous towards Pete, going to be a hard set to call though. Maik can't be too displeased with this draw, he's scoring pretty close to 90 in my database and is projecting to win two in three against Hudson, so a good chance for the Netherlands native to make it to the last 64.

UK Open preview 4/8

(45) Jason Lowe v (157) Cameron Menzies/(101) Jelle Klaasen or (UR) Mark Rice

This kicks off with two Riley's qualifiers, one we know a touch more about than the other, Klaasen having a world title in the bank, but ended up only around the low 80's in averaging on the Challenge Tour, but that looks a bit down below where he's been at over the last year - although his Q-School average was basically the same. Rice won through the Chester qualifier and has qualified a couple of times before, didn't play the most recent one when it was a bit windy, did take three legs off Ronny Huybrechts when he was still relevant. Would think Jelle is good enough to advance, Menzies has hit some good form in the early stages of the Pro Tour season having won a board and you would think he'll have enough to handle Klaasen fairly comfortably on current form, while a matchup against Lowe, who's quietly doing business again after a bit of a leaner 2021 in comparison to 2020, ought to be too close to call.

(46) Florian Hempel v (181) Lukas Wenig or (UR) Adam Warner/(UR) Matt Good or (UR) Keelan Kay

We'll look at the second first round game first. Good made some headlines when he hit a nine in the Norwich qualifier (I believe this was the one played in comedy conditions), beyond that I don't know a great deal about him outside of what was on the Weekly Dartscast fairly recently. Keelan's someone who's been around on the under the 128 scene for a couple of years now, he's accumulated over 150 legs in my database in the last twelve months and is scoring 83, during which time he's made a couple of Dev Tour finals, and you think that ought to be enough to outclass a Riley's qualifier. Wenig is scoring 88 in my database over 200 legs, which makes me think he ought to be a solid favourite to cash, he's not on tour yet but got into quite a few Players Championships last year, so has decent experience. Warner won through Liverpool to make his debut and I'll give him some funking power as a fellow Sheffield alum, but I can't look past Wenig. Whether Lukas can trouble Florian is another question, year long stats make this out to be 60/40 so maybe there'll be some sneaky value in a possible all-German clash if we do see that game, given Hempel has been a little slow to start in 2022.

(47) Jamie Hughes v (53) Madars Razma

Awkward draw for both really, easily the strongest game between two players entering at round three. Hughes has been a bit quiet since lifting that Euro Tour what must be three years ago now, but isn't playing badly, if nowhere near the red hot levels he was at in 2019. Madars is scoring fairly similarly to Jamie but should come in as a small dog, the year long data saying it's near 60/40, maybe Razma is slightly higher, but he does understandably sound a little distracted over the past week or two and he did not look good against Cullen in Riesa.

(48) Raymond van Barneveld v (56) William Borland

Another match between two straight into round three, obviously picked for the main board, Barney is Barney and he'll just hope not to lose to a Scot on the afternoon session for the second straight season. Willie, after pinning that nine, would rate as just under a 30% chance on season long stats, but he's gone right off after that match, only averaging 82 in the four Pro Tours so far this season which is well down on what he's capable of. Not really the draw he'd have wanted as a result, but maybe the crowd will kick him back into gear.

UK Open preview 3/8

(41) Ricky Evans v (67) Scott Mitchell/(177) Danny Jansen or (UR) Liam Meek

Meek got here from the UK Dev Tour, and the data I have saw him scoring below 82, he was averaging under 80 in the most recent Dev Tour weekend - that seems unlikely to cut it against a card holder in Jansen, who's scoring a good five points higher in his early PDC days, but seems wildly inconsistent which I guess would be expected to some extent. Neither looks likely to be able to run with Mitchell, despite his mediocre worlds performance, Scott's been scoring over 90 in the last twelve months which is around a point and a half better than what Evans has been doing, which is enough for him to rate as over a 55% favourite against the higher ranked player.

(42) Darius Labanauskas v (77) John Henderson/(96) James Wilson or (UR) Shaun Wilkinson

Wilkinson got himself onto the tour as a bit of a surprise name, and is looking for his first victory scoring barely over 80 per turn over a limited sample, which is not going to be enough to take on Wilson, who we've talked about at length as someone who's been playing an awful lot better than his results are showing. Doubt the first round game is close, and with Henderson's form remaining sketchy outside of World Cups, James rates to get through the second round game as a 60/40 favourite. A potential third round game against Labanauskas would be too close to call on paper, but maybe you have to rate Darius as being a small favourite on account of having more of a winning record of late.

(43) Adam Hunt v (107) Martin Lukeman/(176) Jamie Clark or (UR) Shaun McDonald

McDonald was right up there on the UK Challenge Tour rankings last season, I can't see he played the first weekend but looked very competent at Q-School, then again so did Clark, who's quietly been averaging in the top 40 on the Pro Tour so far, so you've got to think Jamie ought to be a solid favourite. Lukeman is at a comparable spot, much improved this year but Jamie is playing that little bit better and either will surely fancy their chances against Hunt, who did not have a great 2021 by any stretch of the imagination and has yet to really get going in 2022 with no wins yet. Clark's data is still a bit limited but over the last twelve months Lukeman would rate as more than a 60% favourite, so go from there.

(44) Steve Lennon v (68) Rusty Jake Rodriguez or (282) Ryan Harrington/(188) Richie Burnett or (239) Tony Martinez

Bit of a cluster this one. The first of the two first round games seems the easiest to call. Rusty's been that good that Harrington, averaging 84 in the opening Challenge Tour, seems a touch outclassed. The other one is a bit harder to call, Martinez is one we've not talked a huge amount about since he got his tour card and he looks to have occasional decent legs but many more weaker legs, which feels like something that a veteran like Burnett ought to be able to exploit. Neither seem to really be on Rusty's level with the limited stuff we have on Burnett being a good three points lower, maybe he can nick it one time in three or something like that. Rusty against Steve ought to be a good one. Lennon continues to play well but without getting results, maybe his form has tailed off a little bit as the numbers make this pretty darned close to a coin flip. It'd be a fun one to watch, which is why the PDC have buried it on board five.

UK Open preview 2/8

(37) Willie O'Connor v (148) Connor Scutt/(180) Mario Vandenboegaerde or (241) Jules van Dongen

All tour card holders here, but mostly new ones. Mario and Jules match up first, Jules has had an ok start to his PDC career without really getting results yet, Mario on the other hand has played that little bit better and is scoring a touch more, so should be favoured to advance to round two (call it 65/35 maybe?) and face Scutt, who has already got a good PDC run under his belt, but has not got quite the level of scoring as Mario has, although the Belgian has a smaller sample size. Will find it hard to separate them, and either will have a good shot against O'Connor, who I'm thinking might be around the 60-65% region against either opponent. Willie's needing a good performance from somewhere to start to make progress up the rankings, maybe the UK Open with the nature of its draw is one opportunity.

(38) Jermaine Wattimena v (97) Diogo Portela or (UR) Dan Read/(192) Ross Montgomery or (UR) Reece Colley

This seems completely wide open. Portela and Read both advanced through Riley's qualifiers, Read was hyped up a bit by Matt Edgar the other day and has got a decent scoring record on this season's Challenge Tour so far, a good four points higher than Diogo, who likely can make this into somewhat of a flip on account of his greater big game experience. Colley's a name that has been around for a while, making it here through the Dev Tour, and he's been most recently seen averaging high 70's on the Challenge Tour, so would probably be an underdog to either player in round two if he gets past Ross, who's not scored too highly so far in the PDC (it's actually near identical to Colley's stats in my database), so maybe call the first round game a flip and say the winner is a 40/60 dog? Whoever gets through this is surely going to fancy their chances against Jermaine, who has better statistics but is low on confidence (or at least it appears that way) and might open up a decent underdog punt opportunity.

(39) Adrian Lewis v (123) Kai Fan Leung or (125) Fabian Schmutzler/(UR) Vladimir Andersen or (UR) Steve Clayson

Another wild section. Leung won a Riley's qualifier and will face the latest hot German prospect in round one, I think KFL's got the much stronger all around game and we've got enough data on Schmutzler at this stage to think that Leung ought to advance fairly comfortably. Andersen's scored around 87 from when I've seen him in my database to date, which I think is mostly Nordic/Baltic having not been able to play Pro Tour to this date, he faces another Riley's qualifier in Steve Clayson, who seems like the closest thing we've had to a complete random that we've had in some time, that he's apparently 59 and nobody's heard of him is a little bit remarkable. Would favour Andersen to get through this comfortably enough then KFL to have a bit of an edge in round two, then it's down to Adie to do his job, if it was Leung he was to play I'd guess the line would be about 2/5, 4/11 something like that without vig. Lewis should be fine, but he's not exactly been getting results for some time now.

(40) Alan Soutar v (79) Jim Williams or (90) Ryan Murray/(88) Mickey Mansell or (UR) Jurjen van der Velde

Soutar's going to look to repear what he did last year and he's got a couple of rounds start from there, but won't have an easy game. Jim's got the quality, as does Ryan, Jim's projecting to win easily two in three, then we've got the Pro Tour winning veteran in Mansell against the Dev Tour qualifier in van der Velde, who's scoring 82 in the 80+ leg sample I have on him, which is well below Mansell who should advance comfortably. Williams against Mansell I'd still favour the Welshman at between 60% and two in three, then Soutar looks pretty much dead even against Jim. He's playing that well.

UK Open preview 1/8

So the UK Open draw was made yesterday, some fairly exciting matchups in the pipeline, I'll post up each round 3 matchup in order of the highest ranked player that's involved downwards. Will post four at a time. All numbers in brackets were FRH rankings after the draw, with mincashes applied as needed.

(32) Ross Smith v (99) Krzysztof Kciuk/(150) Brett Claydon

This seems like one of the easier ones to call. Kciuk's been a fairly competent operator for a couple of years now, and should easily handle Claydon, who is seemingly just into round two on account of being around for a while, only getting a first round bye on account of the number of new card holders with nothing in their account. Kcuik looks like around a 70-75% favourite, but Smith is a different class again, right on the top 32 boundary, Kcuik's got enough that he ought to take just over one time in three, but Ross should advance here.

(33) Kim Huybrechts v (119) Geert de Vos/(140) Luc Peters or (UR) Paul Marsh

We've got a bit of a gauntlet set up here. Peters has been around on our radar for just over a year, not quite getting a card in 2021 but getting one in 2022 clocking in at a competent 87 scoring clip over the last twelve months which should be enough to handle Marsh, our first Riley's qualifier coming through Norwich, can't see a great deal about him, if it's the same guy he had some BDO appearances about five-seven years ago but that's it. Luc should have enough here. Think Luc's slightly favoured to get past de Vos who hasn't really set the world on fire since moving to the PDC, call it just over a 55/45. Kim though ought to move through, looking real solid as he tried to get back towards the top 32, this looks around a 70/30 so not a foregone conclusion, but Peters will have his work cut out here.

(34) Ryan Joyce v (64) Mike de Decker

First all-double bye matchup, Joyce takes on de Decker, and while Mike's had occasional flashes of brilliance, Ryan appears to be more solid all round, scoring a couple of points per turn higher over the course of the last year which gives de Decker a fighting chance in the low 40% range, but Joyce ought to back himself to make the evening session here.

(35) Martijn Kleermaker v (71) Jason Heaver/(213) Toni Alcinas or (UR) Prakash Jiwa

Couple of older names first up. Prakash has been around on and off the PDC scene for years now, having appeared here on a few occasions, latest form we can see outside of his qualification in Cov was a high-70's average on the Challenge Tour, which is a good 5-6 points lower than Alcinas, who's here from the Euro Challenge Tour last season and has a pretty decent record but has struggled to get his card back, not really pushing on after that last 16 worlds appearance in 2018. Would think the Spaniard gets through at least two times out of three, and will then go on to face Heaver, who should be a tough test after a good first season on the tour. Would weigh this around 60/40 in Heaver's favour given our data on Alcinas is a little bit limited. A potential third round tie with Kleermaker rates to be fairly close, Martijn's the bigger name but statistically they're fairly similar and this only looks 55/45, although Kleermaker probably has the greater experience in this sort of pressure situation so maybe it's a little bit more in the big Dutchman's favour than that. Should be an interesting section one way or another.