Wednesday 2 March 2022

UK Open preview 5/8

(49) Luke Woodhouse v (142) Jack Main/(78) Ted Evetts or (237) Nick Fullwell

First round we've got two players at the opposite ends of their careers, Evetts now being too old for the Development Tour (I think), but is still on the main tour having won his card back on points, the same as Fullwell, who's back after a few years working the Challenge Tour, which he does have a win on. Nick's had an OK start statistically but ranks a point or two behind Evetts so while I think Ted is favoured, it's not by much and Fullwell is certainly live. Main's not really made much of an impression on the second year of his tour card and has yet to win a board on the Pro Tour, scoring the wrong side of 85 makes me think either first round opponent should be favoured. Woodhouse would like a bit of a run here, he's one of many players in the 33-64 range that either need to bink a Pro Tour to get in majors or to progress here in order to push up the rankings, he can't be too displeased with this draw, looked solid last weekend and I think would have about a 60/40 edge on Evetts, and higher against others in all likelihood.

(50) Keane Barry v (69) Jeffrey de Zwaan/(117) David Evans

This is an awkward second round game to call. de Zwaan had an awful 2021 and this would be a good time to kick back into form, while Evans didn't really do the sort of damage many thought he was capable of after winning the Challenge Tour two years ago. Both could do with a result, de Zwaan we know has the better peak game and probably should be a two in three favourite or there abouts. Barry against de Zwaan should be spicy if that happens, Keane looked real good in Riesa and will surely fancy his chances against either, against de Zwaan on year long form the data model is saying it's a coinflip, but we've seen enough from Keane in 2022 that he's starting to turn his sky high potential into improved performances and results. Maybe there might be some value here, we'll see.

(51) Ritchie Edhouse v (75) Max Hopp

Edhouse is another player we saw in Riesa, not hitting the heights in terms of numbers but getting the good scalp of Ryan Searle, and can't be overly displeased with who he's got given that it's an all double bye matchup. Hopp's been a little bit of a forgotten man in the whole German darts scene over the last year or two and is frankly lucky to retain his card, we all know the peak game is easily good enough for the top 64, you don't win a Euro Tour by accident, he just needs to show it, here would be a good place to start as his tour card is in real trouble, this is in stark contrast to Ritchie who, like Evans, got his card through the Challenge Tour at the same time and has pretty much retained it already barring a complete collapse in form. Edhouse projects right between 55% and 60% in this one for me.

(52) Maik Kuivenhoven v (104) Pete Hudson/(110) Nathan Rafferty or (193) John O'Shea

Not really the draw either would like in the first round. Ought to be a very good well spirited game which is unfortunately buried on an outer board, we've got a lot more data on Nathan than John, but he's scoring within a point in my database, which is backed up by the Pro Tour averages where they're about half a point apart. Hudson is down a little bit on both, but not by much, shoving him and Rafferty into the master computer says coinflip which I think is being slightly generous towards Pete, going to be a hard set to call though. Maik can't be too displeased with this draw, he's scoring pretty close to 90 in my database and is projecting to win two in three against Hudson, so a good chance for the Netherlands native to make it to the last 64.

No comments:

Post a Comment