Friday 4 March 2022

UK Open rounds 2-3 tips and live post

Will post updates periodically with thoughts and live tips as rounds 2/3 take place, but first, the matches that are already scheduled which we should have decent data on:

David Evans/Keane Barry - no bet
Lewy Williams/Martin Schindler - 0.25u Schindler 4/5
Jonathan Worsley/Niels Zonneveld - no bet
John Michael/Danny Baggish - 0.1u Michael 9/5
Berry van Peer/Kevin Doets - no bet
Geert Nentjes/Jake Jones - no bet
Krzysztof Kciuk/Brett Claydon - 0.25u Kciuk 4/7

Raymond van Barneveld/William Borland - 0.25u van Barneveld 4/9 although only because Borland has been so below par in 2022
Madars Razma/Jamie Hughes - no bet
Max Hopp/Ritchie Edhouse - no bet
Ryan Joyce/Mike de Decker - no bet, but de Decker is tempting

Further thoughts will be posted below in running and timestamped.

1053 - As clarification, I won't be using Oddschecker in running, I'll post up thoughts on where a line can be and I've got five mainline bookies open, will post the best price I can see where I think there's a bet and go with it.

1111 - Disappointingly slow start for Scott Taylor, averaging low 70's and 3-0 down, thought this one would be nip and tuck, if not that massively high quality. Only bet live now is on Wenig who's 3 up and looking good.

1121 - Jimmy Hendriks first man through, looked pretty decent. Killington and Pietreczko both one away and looking comfortable.

1123 - Ricardo now through. The KFL/Schmuztler game is now live, it's obv just being added on to Dart Connect post match. Our guy's down a break at 4-2.

1127 - Couple more second round matches confirmed - Evetts came from behind and will play Jack Main, looking about a 4/7 Ted match, Pietreczko will play Lerchbacher, seems 4/6 Zoran. Wenig just about got the job done just now as well.

1131 - Killington through a scrappy one and will play Gawlas, seems about 55-60% for Adam there. KFL throwing to get us to a decider on board 2.

1133 - First new lines filtering through, not seen anything out of line yet.

1136 - What I will take however is 0.25u Wenig 4/5 (365) against Kay. Much stronger player in sample size, neither player did anything convincing in round one to change my mind.

1137 - Schmutzler got the job done in the decider so we drop to 1-1, and it could get worse as Andersen is really struggling and 4-0 down to Steve Clayson. Did not see that one coming at all.

1139 - On the plus side, Jamie Clark's doing alright, but Rusty's in a little bit of a dogfight. Dan Read also off to a hot start against Portela, up three in under 45 darts.

1140 - And shit, KFL missed a match dart. Assumed that leg was done once Schmutzler opened 180. Oh well.

1146 - Disappointing from Rusty there. Harrington played well, but he really needs to get his act together when given the shots where it really matters as opposed to on the floor. Clark sweeps McDonald to salvage some of that loss though.

1155 - Clark will play Lukeman, and Szaganski, who just edged out Plaisier in a decider, plays Waites. Think Clark has a small edge, let's say 8/11 or 4/6, bit harder to tell with Radek but if Waites is any longer than 1/2 or possibly 2/5 I'd be surprised.

1158 - Dan Read looked decent against Portela. May be live against Montgomery or Colley who are just under way. Really poor from Campbell on board two, Bialecki cruises through. Looks like it's just 365 who can be bothered to get lines up in decent order. Dart Connect also being real slow to get board 2 stats up, may need to hack at this stage.

1201 - Wow, Bialecki had three holds in eight visits. Really Matt?

1204 - Wasn't expecting either player in the O'Shea/Rafferty game to go 4-0 up, but here we are, looking at the averages I assume it's scrappy and Nathan's missed some doubles.

1206 - Would expect Bialecki to be about 6/4, maybe 11/8 against Joe Murnan. Watching that line. Looks like we're losing the Colley punt as he's three down with four to play.

1209 - O'Shea completes that sweep without hitting a single five visit kill. Hudson up next for him, that's another one that could be scrappy. Rowby up 4-0 with the darts, you love to see it.

1213 - We get Burnett/Harrington. It's 1997 all over again.

1217 - Rowby through with the best performance of the day so far. Graham Hall's managed to oust Kevin Burness, didn't see that one coming at all. Rock been forced to a decider, rut roh.

1219 - WTF ROCK

1221 - Was going to add a bet on on O'Shea, but he's been backed in massively before I could fire. Hudson was 1/2 and has now drifted to 4/6. Sad timing.

1225 - No further bets as of yet, maybe Mathers is a bit long but against Rowby on the form he showed just now, don't think we can do anything there. Hogan through which is nice to see.

1228 - Solid performance from Danny Jansen just now. Didn't do much wrong, might give Mitchell a little bit of a worry if he plays like that again.

1233 - This is a missed double comedy show from Klaasen, Rice has the break. Looks like Mansell's in the process of a full collapse as well, sigh.

1239 - Extremely disappointing there from Alcinas, did not think he'd average below 80, even if being close to his peak was an unrealistic ask. Also seen Mansell blow a 3-0 lead and lose 6-4, marvellous.

1250 - Some decent scoring from Lerchbacher, looking to close the match out and cash. Kind of tempted by Peters against de Vos, I think he should be ever so slightly favoured and on the back of a clean sweep, he should be confident. 11/10 isn't quite enough but will watch it.

1259 - I think I'll take a small stab here, 0.1u Jansen 2/1 vs Mitchell, good showing and Scott might not be at his best. Only small because small sample on Danny.

1309 - That line's disappeared off 365, which is odd. Dunno what's going on there. Round 1's in the book now and people are finishing off in round two, already seen Wenig win which claws a bit more back.

1310 - It's there on Betfair though, and you can get 21/10. Go with that, I'll leave the posted price the same though.

1314 - Even money on Wilson against Henderson anyone? Actual model says it's closer than I thought at 55/45, would have thought that'd be an easy Lethal Biscuit punt, but I guess not. What I will take though is 0.25u Krcmar 4/6 against Lerchbacher on 365, Boris often not showing up in big moments and Zoran looking ok in round 2 is a concern, but this is a 70-75% game to me.

1322 - If I'm wrong with this I don't care, 0.25u Lauby evs against Hogan, Danny should surely win this 60% of the time?

1325 - Quite some performance by Klaasen to rout Menzies. Jason Lowe will be in trouble if he plays like that. If he plays like he did in round one, maybe not so much. Bialecki in the money again, game against Keegan Brown should be winnable you'd think.

1328 - Hudson/O'Shea now backed into 10/11 choice of two lol. Couple of interesting lines that I'm taking a look at now.

1329 - Was pondering plays on Kciuk and Hempel, but the lines look just about enough in order.

1330 - Great result from Berry van Peer, thought Doets would be able to nick that one but BvP did little wrong. Don't necessarily think either of Worsley or Zonneveld who are just closing up their game now is a big step up so chance for Berry here.

1334 - Great comeback from Scott Waites, going from 4-0 down to a 6-4 win, got to fancy himself now against Brian Raman after that.

1340 - Bialecki is evens against Brown, that isn't really enticing value to say the least. Waites is 1/2 against Raman, that's kind of similar. Do wonder with Wattimena's form whether we can take a nibble on Ross Montgomery at 6/5? I'm not sure.

1351 - Keeping a close eye on a couple of lines - Keane Barry might be undervalued against Jeffrey de Zwaan possibly, but more interesting would be what Martin Lukeman comes in at against Adam Hunt. Martin should come in as the favourite, but I doubt he does.

1354 - Danny Jansen gets home nicely, ones picked off in play generally doing a lot better than those in advance. Round 2 seems a fair bit better so far full stop.

1359 - Two plays being taken - 0.25u Lukeman 11/10, it's showed up on Betfair with 365 slacking, also 0.25u Schindler 8/11, these are against Adam Hunt and Jeff Smith respectively.

1404 - Cracking game between Graham Hall and Andrew Gilding, with Hall prevailing in a decider.

1408 - Urgh, Michael blew a 5-2 lead against Baggish, didn't need to see that.

1412 - Peters easily through 6-2 against de Vos, probably should have taken the slightly odds against in retrospect.

1415 - Wow, Michael was actually 5-1 up. ITV crew not doing their work. Oh my. Schmutzler's cashed, could be an interesting game against Lewis.

1419 - Extremely tempted to fire again on Jansen against Ricky Evans. Actually, I will - 0.1u Jansen 11/5, does anyone think that Ricky is significantly better than Scott Mitchell right now?

1425 - Connor Scutt confidently through against Jules van Dongen, he's got Willie O'Connor up next, might be the case that we've already missed any Scutt hype train, but maybe he's undervalued slightly. Will check in a bit.

1430 - Wow, Scutt is a favourite. That's not right. 0.25u O'Connor 6/5. Of course O'Shea won, chance missed there.

1434 - Nearly done with round 2, just the one game on the outside boards, TV boards are a bit behind. I'm confused as to why Lennon is so long against Harrington, 4/7 looks like it might be a decent price? And wow, Graham Hall's taken out Steve Beaton. That's an awful result in context for Steve.

1442 - Bit stunned by the completely non-darts related news of the death of Shane Warne. Only 52, my god. Jason Heaver's 7/4 against Kleermaker, that's worth a look for someone who's rated 45% in the model I have. Martijn tends to outperform that a little bit, so won't bet, but maybe if there's money the other way or if I see another book open up at, say, 11/5, I'll take it. James Wilson really struggling here.

1447 - Already seen the money talk on Lennon, shortened a tick on 365. Krcmar up a break against Lerchbacher, will be nice to hold from here.

1452 - Also good to see that the Schindler line has moved two ticks on 365 to 8/13, is 4/7 on Betfair. Krcmar's just got home for some more money back.

1505 - Good showing from Ricky Evans, ton average and not doing much wrong at all. Round 2 now done, so just closing out round three right now, O'Connor's off to a sluggish start and will do well to get out of this one.

1519 - I'll take a small stab here, 0.1u Meikle 13/8 against Rowby, long data says this looks like a bit of a flip, Rowby having a small edge, will only not go a quarter unit on account of the Austrian's performances earlier today.

1522 - Big result from O'Connor, where he pulled that one out from, I don't know. Harrington's one away against Lennon, that'd be a big result.

1535 - No further bets will be added as we know all the round three matches right now. Hempel was fortunate there, Wenig seemingly had darts at double in most of the legs he lost. Meikle off like a train, 4-0 up, Lukeman also three up with four to play.

1542 - Those two got home, so as long as one of Schindler and Barney (the latter starting now) get home, we're somehow up for the afternoon, which was looking pretty sketchy a few hours ago when Rock fucked it up to get us to probably the nadir of the swings.

1608 - LOL Barney, nice finishing in that last leg.

1619 - Schindler closes it out, so will close this live blog from here. Expect two quick posts after the draw - one with immediate win probabilities, then one with bets.

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