Sunday 13 March 2022

ET2 round 3 bets

Only bet lost yesterday, but I think we continue to be on the right side of Schindler if they keep giving us these sorts of prices. He was 4-1 up against the world champion! He averaged 99! He shouldn't be 7/2 in a race to 11 against anyone right now. If they keep offering these prices, we'll keep taking them.

Let's rattle through the last 16.

van Gerwen/Lukeman - Is the Lukeman value train derailed before it can even get going? That was a mightily fine display against Heta, jesus. It may well be, more books are offering shorter than 5/1 on Lukeman than longer and I can guarantee that wouldn't have been the case yesterday. That really isn't value, that's where it should be.

Wright/Ratajski - Think Peter ought to come through this one, Ratajski wasn't great against Hughes, just got the one quick leg, the rest were fairly pedestrian. We can get slightly longer than 2/1 on Krzysztof, and I see just under 40% chances yearlong, so it's close to being worth the look, but with the way things are trending I think those chances are a bit smaller in reality. It's actually ever so slightly higher in the last six months, but in 2022 it's 70/30 Wright. This is eerily similar to the Gurney game yesterday, isn't it?

Searle/van den Bergh - Two players who came through yesterday afternoon, and it's actually a UK Open redo, Searle won that 10-8 and it just feels close, and the markets are having trouble separating them, just having Dimitri as a small 8/11 sort of favourite. That actually looks about right year long, I've got Dimitri as just over 55% winning chances, so no bets yet.

Smith/Chisnall - The sort of game it feels like we've seen a bunch of times, Smith needed to do a bit of work to finish off Petersen after being 4-0 up, Chisnall needed all eleven legs to finish off Clemens, so not the greatest display from either. Smith seems to be priced 4/7 everywhere, maybe that's a little short. I'm seeing Dave at 44% yearlong and 46% in 2022, although a six month stat in the middle has him at just 37%. We can't get better than 11/8 which is nowhere near enough to consider.

Cullen/Gurney - This also seems like a massive redo (but I'm not fucking paying dartsorakel to get head to head stats to be sure), Gurney came through Humphries yesterday and looked solid, Cullen looked a bit better against Evans and was scoring very well, leaving himself on a two darter after twelve in every leg Evans won. My model's having trouble separating the two, Cullen only pulling ahead slightly on 2022 stats and that's only 55/45. So I'll go 0.25u Gurney 15/8 (Ladbrokes, oddschecker still not working), I think this is a big enough edge to take the shot, despite Joe's impressive display.

Clayton/Suljovic - Mensur took apart a way off Callan Rydz, Clayton was extremely competent against Waites, just the first and last legs being a bit mutually sloppy. Looks like a Clayton two in three game, Mensur's only longer than 2/1 in one place, so no bet here.

Cross/van Duijvenbode - Rob was not really tested by Kleermaker and a bunch of six visit holds were easily enough, Dirk was slow to get going against Darius, but the Lithuanian was slow as well, so Dirk got an early break and got to an easy enough 6-3 win. Seeing 58/42 year long for Rob which feels about right, Cross is 4/6, slightly longer in places, so the line looks good.

de Sousa/Sedlacek - Jose was fortunate against Huybrechts, getting through 6-5 from 5-3 down, Karel meanwhile whitewashed Chris Dobey in a result nobody saw coming - especially the size of the win. Sedlacek's a best price of 2/1 so I doubt we can ride this hype train any further, year long it looks exactly like Jose two in three, although more recent form is worth looking at, last six months it's basically a coin flip, and in 2022, it actually likes Sedlacek - although on a 19 leg winning sample, I'm going to ignore that. I'll take a small stab, 0.1u Sedlacek 2/1, while Karel won 6-0 he did get more legs than not in six visits, but Jose also only won two legs in fifteen or better, and averaged under 80 in the five legs he lost (albeit that is deflated by one leg with clown show doubling).

Going to put up another post shortly on a separate topic, but that's all for now.

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