Saturday 12 March 2022

ET2 round 2 bets

No major surprises in round one, hard to say there were any surprises at all. Sedlacek over Lewis might look like one to the casual, but we thought it might happen a fair chunk of the time. Of the three long shots we went for, that was the one that was right, if we can pick off at that rate at prices of better than 2/1, happy days, Lukeman was also comfortable so day one was productive. Oddschecker is being useless again and not giving us lines, pretty fair spread of useless stuff yesterday with sportradar continually freezing (freezing after Soutar was six darts in and 141 left was a good one) and the stream apparently having issues as well, so we're going with the ghetto option of opening up four major bookies and going from there.

Ratajski/Hughes - No read on Hughes from round one as he was one of the players to get a bye, Ratajski's been a little bit up and down over the last few months while Jamie's slowly coming back to form, all lines saying 4/9 Ratajski which I think is maybe underrating Hughes ever so slightly (I see 35%), but hey, vig, it's close enough.

Cross/Kleermaker - Martijn didn't play that great against Mario, just getting a bunch of holds in eighteen then nicking the one break late, that might be punished by someone with the class of Cross fairly easily if it continues. Looks like Rob should take this ever so slightly more than one in three, another one where the market has the favourite as slightly shorter than he ought to be, but with vig there is no chance to punish by betting the underdog.

van Duijvenbode/Labanauskas - Dirk is priced more or less 1/2 everywhere against Labanauskas, who looked alright in dealing with the potentially dangerous Springer, bringing home a comfortable win. This one looks to be favouring Dirk a bit too much, but there's huge vig and we can't get better than 13/8, which isn't really enough with a 42% chance. If we could get the converse of Dirk's price, we'd be in for sure.

Heta/Lukeman - Martin continues to impress in 2022, solid 92 average against Hendriks who didn't really do much, and Damon will be a good yardstick as Heta looks to put the UK Open disappointment behind him. Year long says Heta three times out of four, and he is generally priced a bit shorter than 1/3, even getting as short as 1/4 in places. Think that's a little bit disrespectful to Martin's game, but Heta's really good and it's not that far out.

Searle/van der Voort - Vincent made no mistakes against van Veen in what could have been a tricky tie, and now comes up against Searle who has had a couple of blips and might be there for the taking. Seems like 60/40 to Ryan, he's generally priced about 1/2, so this is exactly like the van Duijvenbode game, the bookies' built in edge denies us the chance to punt. Give us the 9/4 to go with Searle's 4/9 in multiple places, and we'd bet.

van den Bergh/Soutar - Alan didn't set the world alight in round one but didn't need to in order to get past Peters, and now comes up against Dimitri which'll be a whole different level of test. Looks about 70/30 in favour of the Belgian, and the lines are generally floating around 2/5, so we can pass once more.

Humphries/Gurney - Luke's now up in the seeds and will face someone who was a seed in these for seemingly years in Daryl, who averaged pretty poorly but still got the win over Lukas Wenig. Market is generally around 1/2 on Luke, slightly longer in places, which looks right on form this year, but year long the model says this is a coinflip? That seems a bit odd, Humphries is scoring a little over a point better than Gurney in the last twelve months, but that's all on consistency and better losing legs. Do I really want to take 6/4? I think with the way things are trending I can talk my way out of it, but this certainly isn't the banker that many casuals might think it is.

Cullen/Evans - Ricky managed a good win over Rafferty, who was red hot in the legs he lost with Evans keeping shutting the door. A bit of a resurgence in the last few weeks for Rapid, can he keep it going against Cullen? I'd say he's got just over a one in three chance, the 12/5 we're offered wouldn't be the worst punt I guess but it's not quite enough to go for it, would probably grab 11/4.

de Sousa/Huybrechts - Into the evening session and we start with the #1 seed, which is a little bit odd but that's what it is, Kim got through Murnan in an unremarkable game and is priced remarkably close to Jose, I wouldn't have picked a 6/5 line that we can see in some places. Year long that'd be an awful bet, last twelve months the model can't separate them, in 2022 Kim's actually got closer to a 60% shot than 50%. Line seems fair enough then?

Smith/Petersen - Devon got a first round bye, Michael's back looking to put the UK Open behind him and is naturally a huge favourite and we can't get better than 1/4 anywhere, many places being 1/5. We can't get better than 10/3 on Petersen, which isn't really enough to consider the punt, Smith shouldn't be this far odds on, I'd say vig free this should be 2/5, but I'm not rushing to lump on Devon Petersen with this small an edge.

Clemens/Chisnall - Gabriel was another player to get a bye through being promoted to the seeds and gets put up against Chizzy first up which is a touch harsh, Dave ran through Bellmont very easily and enters as shorter than a 1/2 favourite in many places, which seems a little bit short at a first glance, but not that much - I'm only seeing Gabriel at 35% and as we're being offered 2/1 at best, we can avoid a bet again.

van Gerwen/Justicia - Jose got past George Killington in a fairly tight matchup, and now gets a resurgent MvG in round two. Lines are pretty lol, but I can only see a projection of 13%, so I can't even recommend the 6/1 that you can get. Let's just move on.

Wright/Schindler - Martin needed all eleven legs to get past Wattimena and I think he faded a match dart in doing so, in the only game that went the distance in round one. He'll need to be better today, he can be and we'll go 0.1u Schindler 7/2, my projections give him a 34% chance, so against an implied chance of 22%, that's more than enough to take a small stab here.

Clayton/Waites - Scott got through Kantele in the first game of the day, not a particularly high quality affair and Jonny ought to be a solid favourite in this one, I see this as bang on a three in four chance for the Welshman, markets are generally in agreement.

Rydz/Suljovic - Should be a fun one, Callan's the seeded player here, Mensur got a bye, feels like it should be close, I'm getting Rydz at 55/45 in terms of chances, think the market favours Callan ever so slightly more, but again there's a ton of vig in the market so I can't recommend any sort of Suljovic play.

Dobey/Sedlacek - Final game here, Karel had the standout result in terms of opponent beaten, if not level of play, and comes up against the ever underrated Chris Dobey (once I saw he got promoted to the 16 seed I took 66's each way with seeds of Jose, Cross and Dirk in his quarter, seemed like value), looks like Dobey's closer to winning three in four than two in three, and he's typically priced at 1/3, some places slightly shorter, others slightly longer. Can't recommend a play, can't even say it's acca safe, Karel's dangerous enough that anything can happen.

So just the one play on Schindler, it seems like Martin's stopped by one of Wright/Price/van Gerwen far too often, but he's playing well enough that he should get through this sort of game sooner rather than later.

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