Sunday 6 March 2022

Quarter finals - anything worth punting on?

Having a quick check now. Barry might be a little bit undervalued against Wade. 2/1 is a bit of a big price, but I'm only seeing Keane a 39% in long form, and while Keane's been playing better darts over recent months, Wade has looked fantastic this weekend and is going to be hard to stop, so I can't justify the stab.

Bialecki against O'Connor is a huge chance for everyone, Willie's actually longer than 1/2 at Hills while you can get the inverse on 365 so there looks to be a small arb there if you want it, in terms of the actual winning chances I've got O'Connor at 71%, so if you did want to take that price on Hills (does look to be still there as I type this), I would have that as the freeroll side, but there isn't the edge to recommend an actual play.

Heta looks to be around about a 60/40 favourite over Noppert in the market, for me these two players can't be separated, they're basically identical. We can see 11/8 for Noppert in a couple of places, which is very near enough value, but those seem to be outliers with everyone else having it as 6/5, 5/4 etc, so I doubt we see the market movement to jump on Danny here.

Smith/Price is last up and we're seeing Gezzy at around a 65/35 projection at the bookies, this one seems the closest to a perfect line so I can't recommend any punts in the quarters. Price is maybe slightly undervalued, I see him at 68% so again, if you're on Hills, you could take the 8/15 outlier they have and it wouldn't be bad so to speak. It would be the most Smith thing ever if he took out Price and then lost to the winner of Bialecki/O'Connor.

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