Saturday 5 March 2022

Any value in round 6? Let's see

God damnit why didn't I just follow my instincts and bet Heta. Then again, if I was less disciplined I'd have lost 2-3 other bets, so there is that I supposed. Very close to the business end, eight games to look at, vamos:

Noppert/van Duijvenbode - Bookies have this straight down the middle. That seems fair enough to me. As I'd expect, Danny has a small advantage over the course of the last year, but it's only 55/45, which wouldn't be enough to consider a bet, even before we consider Dirk looking to be in peak form with a damn fine 105 average against Schindler this afternoon. Nothing of value here.

Evans/Barry - This one won't take long. That said, it's one that the model says is a flip. Market agrees. Sit back, relax, but don't make a brew or you'll miss the whole match.

Wade/Krcmar - Wade not troubled by Meulenkamp, as we thought might happened, Krcmar got through Chizzy as we thought might happen, but the size of victory looks on the face of it more to do with Dave than Boris. Wade is a big favourite, shorter than 1/2, I'm thinking Boris has at least a 40% shot. Let's go, 0.25u Krcmar 12/5

Searle/Bialecki - Ryan was in a great tussle with Dimitri but came through, while Sebastian needed every leg to get past Ian White, White basically gifting a moderately slow break in a decider where I assume Bialecki pulled tops for the match into double one? Who knows. Think the Pole's run ends here, I was going to bet Searle at a 3/10 line that oddschecker was showing, but that seems to have vanished and only 1/4 is showing, which I don't think is bad (I see this at 88% Searle), but that's year long stats, can pass this one.

Suljovic/Smith - Mensur managed a ton average against Nentjes to come from a 7-4 hole and advance, Smith was similarly pushed by Clemens, trading a bit early but then getting the critical break and serving out from there. On long data, Smith should take this three times in four, and the market has him at 1/3, so nothing doing again.

Wright/O'Connor - Peter moved on with an accomplished performance against Whitlock, winning 10-5, while O'Connor really got away with one again, Bunting had the darts in the last leg, left 121 after 9, Willie didn't hit a treble in his first twelve darts, and Bunting still lost the leg. Alright then. Another one where the line looks fine, model spits out 81% Wright and he's 2/9. Next please.

Heta/Clayton - Damon got the biggest win of his career in taking down MvG by a surprisingly one sided scoreline, Jonny also got a hugely one sided scoreline, only dropping the one leg to a massively under par de Sousa. Market has this 65/35 in favour of the Ferret, I think the value is on Damon here as I'm looking at him having a 43% shot. There's *nearly* enough value, but not quite enough there to go for a proper tip.

Price/Rydz - Gerwyn was forced all the way to a deciding leg by Jamie Hughes, but finished in twelve on throw, can't complain with that. Callan wasn't particularly good against Vincent van der Voort, but the big lad wasn't at the races and only took the two legs, so Rydz moves on. Market is thinking Price at just over 75%. That looks more or less spot on.

So just the one punt. Would like to offer more, but don't want to make recommendations without a solid edge. If you're less risk averse, there's enough here to make more plays if you want (hint - Heta).

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