Sunday, 13 March 2022

2/2 in the last 16 - anything in the quarters?

Before I cut into that, just been watching a bit of the IOM livestream. That Luke Littler is going to be some player...

van Gerwen/Wright is too close to call, MvG probably with the small edge and the market agrees. Why this is a quarter final, let's blame random Euro Tour seedings. DvdB/Smith ought to be a good one, think this is around 55/45 in favour of the Belgian, and the market is kind of giving it the other way, which surprises me slightly, but Smith averaging 108 earlier is frightening, if I cut it back to the last six months it's only 52/48... 6/5 I don't hate I guess, 6/4 I'd probably jump all over. Gurney/Clayton's probably where Daryl's run ends, we can get better than 2/1 which I think is favouring Clayton a little bit too much, as I'm only seeing him at around 62% on year long and six month form. It's not quite enough to consider betting on Gurney again, but we're not touching Clayton. I've not seen any lines for the Cross/Sedlacek all-hair derby, but I'm seeing Sedlacek at 38% year long and 41% in the last six months. 2022 is too small a sample to use. So what do we need to bet Karel to make the semis? I doubt I touch 2/1, 5/2 is getting closer, but I don't think we actually realise that. Will keep an eye out, but assume no further bets today.

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