Worlds post 1/8 - the Littler bit

Just to make a few clarifying points before I get into full analysis mode. ANY ROUND ONE PROJECTIONS WILL FOLLOW AFTER ALL THE WRITE UPS. Don't want to get into any "should I bet Litter at 1.04 against Darius" questions (probably). In terms of the data tables, the seeding is the official seeding, for 33-64 it's where they ranked in the remainder of the order of merit (although obviously once you get past Hempel or whoever the first man not in was, it's not the actual order of merit position). FRH is the FRH ranking as of a few days ago with first round money included. Use the FAQ if you don't know what this means. Qual by is how they got here, if an abbreviation isn't obvious then Wikipedia works where you are. W-L is leg count in my database. I've been through what is and isn't included before but can revisit it if someone asks. Scoring is the points scored per turn (so this is NOT three dart average - a 13 darter will go down as 100.2 for example). Consistency is the difference in scoring between legs a player has won and those that they lost, so a lower number implies more consistency (and/or running badly in terms of results). Last year is self explanatory. Lakeside (open) is listed if applicable. I know the ADC did hold something they'd like to class as a worlds but as their system is too confusing for me I ignore it.

Littler is just so good. I think the last time we saw anyone this far ahead of the field was peak MvG, and looking back a few posts, going off at evens (he's even gone odds on in some places) might be slightly short but completely understandable. Any time he loses a match seems to make the headlines, and it's really hard to see anyone getting remotely close - although maybe the best chance might come in this little section, but we'll get to that. Having already won basically everything the sport has to offer, the only real question is how long he stays motivated for. There's been occasions where in games it looks like he's metaphorically playing with his food, seemingly not giving a fuck for half the match before turning on the afterburners and running away with the game. That said, as we saw in last year's final, when he needs to start quickly, he certainly can.

Darius returns here for a seventh appearance. He dropped his card two years ago having for all intents and purposes being someone just making up the numbers on tour in 2023, but did enough in the Nordic events to qualify last year (having got a fairly awkward draw in Ryan Joyce), and this year he gets here through the Pro Tour - making a fast start on the Challenge Tour by winning one event in the first weekend and then two in the second, this gave him enough to get into the Pro Tour via the top up list basically all season, having a best spell in mid season and augmenting his record with a Nordic tour win in Finland and four Euro Tour appearances, although only getting the one win against Ryan Searle (blame the PDC's rules for that one). The stats don't look that much better than when he dropped off the tour however, and given the draw I don't think we need to seriously discuss chances further.

Mario was the last player into the field in the "good" pot, and has work to do to make his tour card safe. One win might be enough (and realistically is all he can get) but he could certainly do with some help from other results. After a little bit of a down 2024, the Belgian recovered nicely in 2025, actually translating what always looked like alright numbers into results, being one of the year's surprise Pro Tour finalists, losing out in Leicester to Ryan Searle by a narrow margin, but this, along with a decent start seeing three board wins in the first half of the Pro Tour season, and four Euro Tour appearances with a peak of round three, sees him well up the Pro Tour rankings. Mario was mainly known as a BDO/WDF large field knockout specialist, but has reached a Lakeside semi and had an alright UK Open outing, beating Labanauskas and Veenstra before running Schindler fairly close, so does have some TV results.

David was a pretty much unknown name to me this time last year, but has made huge strides in the second half of 2025 to become someone on the radar, getting here by winning a very tough UK and Ireland qualifier, where he needed to beat the likes of Steve West, Henry Coates and then Lakeside champion Shane McGuirk in the final. This was not out of nowhere by any stretch, as he was able to win a Challenge Tour in August over Alex Merkx, which got him into a few of the late Pro Tour events, looking fairly decent, winning his opening game more often than not, and managing to win his board on his second attempt. This was added to by an Irish Open win in the WDF system last month where he beat McGuirk again, upcomer Jenson Walker, and finally veteran Ross Montgomery in the final. Vandebogaerde might be a tough ask, but it's not out of the question.

Joe's slipped down the rankings a fair bit and only just held onto a seeded spot, which is a surprise given that his overall numbers actually look pretty good, and also given that he started the Pro Tour season with a bang, opening with a final in the very first event before winning the fifth over Gian van Veen in a deciding leg. He'd have a bit of a quiet spell but prove it to be no fluke, adding a second deciding leg win in September, this time over Gerwyn Price. Outside of those two however, it's been slim pickings, with only a couple of final day appearances on the Euro Tour (where he was one of the last seeds and got relatively straightforward draws, only to lose in the last sixteen), and he has a solitary TV win at the Grand Prix over Wade all year. Numbers solid, but outside of the floor he's not really been able to make winning a habit, but he does have a tendency to show up here when you don't expect it.

Bradley's been one of the break out stars of 2025, with spoilers of what might be to come at Q-School, where he regained his card after a bit of a break with truly dominant performances and averages, albeit not winning a day outright. It was perhaps a surprisingly slow start to the season, taking until event 11 to get to a board final on the floor and losing his opening UK Open game to Jurjen van der Velde, but he would make a couple of Euro Tour events, get through to a floor quarter in mid season before getting a breakthrough senior win over Gerwyn Price in July. Brooks would follow this up with a semi final two events later and two further quarter finals, pushing him up to the point where he is close to Pro Tour seedings and maybe direct Euro Tour invites, although a quick start to 2026 may be required. Brooks easily dispatched Martin Lukeman at Minehead recently before surprisingly losing to Adam Lipscombe. Make no mistake - Brooks is in red hot form, and absolutely has enough game to beat Joe, maybe even ask questions of Luke should he get there.

Mensur has had a fairly steady 2025, after a poor 2023 where he didn't make the worlds and a consolidating 2024 where he was likely just happy to retain his tour card. His best game has clearly gone, but numbers just the tiniest fraction under 90 for the season are perfectly respectable. Results have not been fantastic - he didn't qualify for the Players Championship Finals having just got the one board win and a handful of board finals, but winning his opener more often than not, along with an OK European Tour campaign where he made five events and picked up four wins, was enough to see him among the middle of the pack of Pro Tour qualifiers. Suljovic had a nice little UK Open cameo with a win over Nathan Rafferty to get into the pot with the big boys, and would eliminate Luke Woodhouse to make the second day, where he'd be blown away by Willie O'Connor. Still not a bad player, but I think the peak is one and done here.

David returns having been the top ranked Canadian on the CDC circuit, finishing a huge distance ahead of his nearest challenger on that ranking. Cameron won two of the events on that circuit, and added a further three finals to book a return here after a year away. Cameron, who's had some success in the seniors circuit when that was still a thing, would also make it to the Continental Cup final in the CDC system, losing to Alex Spellman and unfortunately missing a Grand Slam spot as a result, and had some WDF success very early in the season by winning the Las Vegas Open. He's an experienced competitor, but that's not exactly going to help against Suljovic, and the statistics look to have tailed off somewhat in the last couple of seasons, so I don't think this one will be as close as it might have been a couple of years back, where I might even have made Cameron a favourite.

Overall, can't look past Luke. Mario and Mensur should both win their opening games but then lose the second. The question then is if Brooks can turn over Cullen - I want to say he can, but it'll be tight. Then the question is if either of them can get close to Luke. I think Bradley might have a bit more of a DGAF attitude and the higher peak game right now which is clearly going to need to show up to stand a chance, but I think that extra set that'd be needed in round three will be the insurance Luke would need if it got a bit twitchy. Winner - Luke Littler

Feels like it's been a relatively quiet year for Damon, and I think on TV it probably has really. He got to the quarters of the World Masters before running into Humphries, and would get a couple of wins at the UK Open prior to running into a rampant Gian van Veen (although Damon did at least force a deciding leg), but since then it's been a string of first round exits for The Heat, which, apart from the European Championship where he got eventual champion van Veen again, didn't really see him get horrible draws, and has seen him slide from a top 8 seed at Blackpool to barely in the top 16 here. The floor form has remained solid however - Damon picked up two Pro Tour titles to keep his ranking there steady, getting the first over Aspinall and the second over Bunting, but ideally he'd have liked to convert what was a very solid number of board wins (sixteen!) into more results, and overall do better on the Euro Tour, where he did reach one final (losing to Aspinall this time) but would lose his opening game more often than not. Heta clearly has the quality to get out of this, but it's not the nicest set of opponents he could get.

First would be Steve Lennon, who has been one of those players who has looked really good in terms of statistics, but just never really converted it into consistent results, going all the way back to getting to a Euro Tour final getting close to a decade ago now. He lost his card two years ago as a result and is probably going to lose it again, but at least has done enough this season to get to the worlds after missing out last season, the expanded format probably helping him being barely in the middle third of Pro Tour qualifiers. TV was basically a complete loss, losing in the prelims of the World Masters and getting an admittedly tough draw first up in the UK Open in Dom Taylor. A Pro Tour record of just one board win and five more board finals would see him miss a Minehead return, and a solitary pair of Euro Tour appearances didn't see him do too much there either, but in the second one of those he did at least make the last sixteen. And the seed he beat to do that? Damon Heta. Funny that.

Barney is still just about retaining relevance, having just dropped out of the top 32 in the world but retaining his place here through the expanded list of main ranking spots to 40, but would have been just fine through the Pro Tour regardless. On the Pro Tour, he played a surprisingly heavy schedule, although he reached just the one quarter final and only a further three board wins, all of which came before the Matchplay. He used the new Euro Tour rules to the fullest to play in all of them, but was out on the Friday more often than he made the Sunday, and in those Sundays he only pushed on to a solitary quarter final, and that was mainly thanks to a good draw (although, oddly enough, he did beat Damon Heta on the way). On TV, Barney was one of the first players to miss a bye to the opening evening of the UK Open, he did win that first game prior to losing a poor game against Dimitri, and would lose in the first round of the other three TV events he played - although if the easiest opponent is Gary Anderson, there is some mitigation for that. The stats are maybe the worst we've seen from RvB - they should be enough to break that TV losing streak, but he ought to be a dog in round two whoever he faces.

Stefan Bellmont returns for a second stab at this event, having been Switzerland's first player to make it in twelve months ago, losing comfortably to Jermaine Wattimena. Last year he came through one of the one off qualifiers, this year it is from the Challenge Tour, winning that to get a card for the first time for 26-27. On that Challenge Tour he got one win in the opening weekend over former Pro Tour winner Danny Jansen, added a second against Keegan Brown and a third in the penultimate event to secure the overall win and a Grand Slam debut, landing in a hard group but getting a win over James Wade at least. Stefan was in the UK Open but got a brutal draw against Beau Greaves, and that Challenge Tour success got him into the vast majority of Pro Tour events. Bellmont had a bit of a rough time there, losing in round one fairly frequently, but showed a glimpse of what he can do with an early surprise semi final run, knocking out Gerwyn Price and Josh Rock amongst others. He's gained a lot of experience these past two years, but the stats remain mediocre and he could be a bit out of his depth here.

Rob Cross is now eight years removed from his world title, and under a bit of pressure having dropped out of the top sixteen and defending semi final money at this event. It's been an up and down year on and off the oche, and it started alright with a World Series win in the Netherlands, a convincing win in the first Pro Tour of the season, and a tight win over Danny Noppert at the UK Open to get to the last sixteen, where he'd run into Josh Rock. However, for the rest of the year, he couldn't really get much going, with just the one semi final on the floor for the rest of the season over a truncated schedule, only one foray into the final session of the European Tour, and disappointing TV form, missing the Slam, losing first round in three of the remaining events to Dirk, Aspinall and most surprisingly Bialecki, only getting the one win (just) over Nijman in Leicester before going out to Cameron Menzies. His numbers are fine, if below his best, but results just haven't been coming.

Cor became the first Norwegian to gain a tour card at Q-School in January, and will make his debut here having crept into the field at the death, gaining one of the last slots on the Pro Tour ranking list, gaining two of his five board finals over the course of the year in the last four events to sneak over the line. That wouldn't likely be enough on its own, but he did have the bonus of a notable run on the European Tour in Switzerland, where he got all the way to the semi finals, albeit with multiple opponents gifting him quite a lot of easy legs. Luke Woodhouse would eventually stop him, but the money in the bank got him here. Cor didn't do a great deal on the SDC tour, finishing tenth on the rankings and going out in the quarters of the season end championship to Teemu Harju, while he wouldn't get out of the prelims at the Masters and get absolutely blitzed by Niko Springer in the first round of the UK Open. The good news is that he appears to be playing better stuff more recently, the bad news is the numbers are way off Rob's which leads me to think this might be a tad one sided.

White's a well known veteran at this stage, and while he is clearly some way off where he was at 6-7 years ago when he was playing and winning Euro Tour events, he is still showing more than enough to get here really comfortably and has pulled away from the danger zone he was in a couple of years ago in terms of retaining his card easily enough. His floor form has been a bit sporadic, losing in the opening round around half the time, but having a great spell around Easter time, reaching a first final in five years, going down in the final to Price, and following it up with a semi final just over a week later. That set him up nicely in the rankings to be safe for here, and would add four Euro Tour appearances, albeit with just the one win over Madars Razma. On TV, White couldn't get out of the prelims in the Masters, and while he made both Minehead events, he lost his first game to Adam Lipscombe and Scott Williams, averaging below 80 in that second one just recently. Not the sort of performance you want coming into a biggie like this.

Ian will play one of the few players still around with move experience than him in Mervyn King, Mervyn experiencing his first year without a tour card since he made his switch from the BDO. Despite some of the opportunities he thought he might have as a non-card holder, he's still done alright for himself, coming through as the last Challenge Tour qualifier by a small margin ahead of Michael Unterbuchner. King reached a final in the first weekend to give him an alright position in terms of Pro Tour call ups, before converting in May with a 5-0 final win over Henry Coates, adding a second final for that weekend a couple of days later. King would leave it late to secure his spot, but a semi final in the final event sees his return after two years away. King got into most of the Pro Tour events, not doing an enormous amount but he did pick up a couple of board wins, including a quarter final in Germany. The numbers are steady and fairly close to White's, I'd favour Ian slightly but this is a tight one.

As to who wins this section, I think Damon will have enough in rounds one and two, I think whoever comes through Heta/Lennon is better than Barney (who I can't see having problems with Bellmont), and I'm thinking that Steve might not have the confidence to get over the line. Cross should put away Cor easily, while White/King is one of the tougher matches to call in round one. I'd give Ian the slight edge, but I don't think either will trouble Cross either, although they might keep it tighter than Cor can. That leaves a 16 v 17 seed showdown and I think I just have to go with Rob's slightly better scoring numbers, although this is one that might go either way (and that I probably called the other way in the instant reaction stream, come to think of it). Winner - Rob Cross

PC Finals round three projections

Wasn't able to get round two projections up. Simply knackered last night so couldn't get the data entered, but am now up to date, aided and abetted by a lot of quick wins in this afternoon's session. Usual form to not form trend with the composite figure at the end.

Gerwyn Price v Martin Schindler - 74/75/72/74

Nathan Aspinall v Danny Noppert - 58/58/47/54

Luke Littler v Ricardo Pietreczko - 95/95/94/95

Krzysztof Ratajski v Josh Rock - 16/14/23/18

Daryl Gurney v Adam Lipscombe - 47/71/72/63

Andrew Gilding v James Wade - 40/41/50/44

Jermaine Wattimena v Ryan Searle - 38/45/42/42

Chris Dobey v James Hurrell - 75/74/76/75

Most of these are pretty consistent across the board so I think we're relatively safe, the longer data throws out a fair bit of a difference for the Wade and Aspinall games, but neither are hugely variant and kind of make sense given the eye test on the two players I mention of late. The one that does look a bit odd is the Gurney one, which says on medium and long data Gurney's a solid favourite, but Adam rates to edge it of late. That doesn't seem crazy - Lipscombe's scoring nearer 92 than 91 on winning legs and just a shade under 90 overall with no notable consistency issue, while Gurney's a tad lower but over 90 overall with a pretty low (i.e. good) consistency number. Lipscombe isn't over the largest sample though (although still big enough to be reliable), and this must surely be unchartered territory in terms of both major depth run and match length size (I forget what he did in the UK Open). Up to you as to how you handle the intangibles in this one.

PC Finals round one projections

Same format as usual, four numbers, first three are form based going from more recent to fuller datasets, last one is the main composite value.

Price - Hopp: 81/79/83/81

Nijman - Veenstra: 71/71/71/71

Heta - Hood: 45/60/62/56

R Smith - Springer: 63/63/62/63

Dobey - Barry: 87/81/81/83

Wattimena - Plaisier: 53/56/62/57

van Veen - Humphries: 53/44/49/49

Bunting - Edhouse: 87/85/79/84

Menzies - Lipscombe: 61/69/69/66

Rock - Clemens: 86/87/78/84

Searle - Beveridge: 68/72/76/72

Clayton - Hurrell: 73/71/70/71

O'Connor - Pietreczko: 64/61/61/62

Cullen - Wright: 57/53/46/52

Noppert - Evans: 53/59/61/58

Schindler - M Smith: 55/49/50/51

Zonneveld - Kenny: 57/66/59/61

van Duijvenbode - Razma: 76/77/71/75

Wade - Mansell: 55/71/66/64

Anderson - Vandenbogaerde: 69/65/75/70

Woodhouse - Soutar: 69/66/59/65

Doets - Rydz: 55/56/39/50

S Williams - White: 51/66/55/57

Brooks - Lukeman: 82/80/76/79

Dolan - Gurney: 38/39/44/40

Ratajski - van Barneveld: 55/52/60/56

Chisnall - Joyce: 56/57/52/55

de Decker - Crabtree: 69/61/63/64

de Graaf - Littler: 16/11/12/13

Gilding - Taylor: 36/55/53/48

Sedlacek - Aspinall: 20/29/36/28

Cross - Bialecki: 80/78/80/79

Fair few games that appear value at current exchange prices. Favourites not going off as short as they should mostly.

Is Littler value

Now this might be a bit of a counter-intuitive post given my previous post was saying betting on Littler to beat Humphries was maybe the best bet I've seen since January, but people who I respect are basically suggesting that Littler should be odds on to bink the worlds. That is in no way an unreasonable assessment, we have seen it before when MvG was at his peak, we've almost certainly seen it before when Taylor was at his peak, but is it realistic now? Let's run the numbers.

I'm going to try to work out a worst possible run, and then a best possible run. So much is down to the draw that it seems prudent to try to do this. Clearly this is going to be subjective, and clearly things will change in terms of draw brackets once Minehead is done, but we should be able to get some kind of base level. I'm using dartsrankings.com in terms of working out the bracket. Any mistake I make is mine for not double checking their work, but I trust them to be reliable enough. At least for the purposes of this post. What I'll do is post the players that Littler can, as of right now (I think they work in PC Finals guaranteed money) face in each round, and their year long scoring per turn. I'll then try to give him the god run, and then the bastard run. Let's go, but I will list in order of least options first, even if that makes no sense in order.

R3 - Cullen (92.07)

R4 - Cross (93.04), de Decker (91.72)

R5 - van Veen (95.09), Dobey (94.06), Joyce (90.65), Woodhouse (90.56)

SF - Bunting (95.19), van Duijvenbode (93.95), Clayton (93.61), R Smith (93.51), Wattimena (92.84), Aspinall (92.67), Schindler (91.39), M Smith (90.64)

F - Humphries (95.91), Rock (95.65), Anderson (94.93), Price (94.87), van Gerwen (94.56), Nijman (93.10) Searle (92.97), Wade (92.24), Heta (92.02), Noppert (92.01), Gurney (90.83), Wright (90.55), Menzies (90.09), Chisnall (89.45), Edhouse (88.70), van den Bergh (87.78)

Any round except 1 - Taylor (92.52), Rydz (92.20), Ratajski (91.69), Springer (91.65), O'Connot (91.29), Gilding (91.20), Scutt (90.91), Zonneveld (90.75), S Williams (90.08), Suljovic (90.01), Evans (89.68), Doers (89.61), Vandenbogaerde (89.58),.Razma (89.56), Hurrell (89.47), Clemens (89.43), Dolan (89.11), Wenig (89.05), Pietreczko (88.99), van Barneveld (88.99), Kenny (88.97), Mansell (88.78), Soutar (88.71), de Graaf (88.68), Huybrechts (88.68), Campbell (88.60), White (88.56), Veenstra (88.41), Meikle (88.20), Barry (87.82), Lukeman (87.81), Tricole (86.82)

Any round - Brooks (91.68), Greaves (90.62), Hood (90.51), Plaisier (90.30), Sedlacek (89.84), Crabtree (89.69), Baetens (89.67), Manby (89.66), Lennon (89.49), Bates (88.87), Dennant (88.83), Beveridge (88.63), van den Herik (88.48), Gruellich (88.44), Hopp (88.31), van der Velde (87.96), King (87.96), Harrysson (87.95), Landman (87.92), Buntz (87.61), Bialecki (87.49), Lipscombe (87.38), Evetts (87.27), Labanauskas (87.23), Harju (87.23), Dekker (87.21), Davies (86.76), Toylo (86.08), Cameron (86.02), Ilagan (86.00), Bellmont (85.97), Leung (85.88), Sevada (85.87), Nebrida (85.51), Sakai (84.86), Lukasiak (84.81), Gates (84.76), Spellman (84.55), Comito (83.92), Lim (83.87), Azemoto (83.71), Pusey (83.09), Krcmar (94.31*), Tatsunami (87.87*), van Leuven (86.56*), Gawlas (84.33*), Zong (83.00*), Ashton (82.96*), Kumar (81.06*), Merk (79.75*), Sherrock (79.05*), Kovacs (76.17*), Hayter (0.00*), Reyes (0.00*), Tata (0.00*), Kciuk (0.00*), Salate (0.00*), Munyua (0.00*)

Here note that an * indicates I do not have 50 winning legs on someone (and if they're at 0.00, I don't have any legs whatsoever on them) and as such I'm not confident in the sample size to consider them in the equation. So now we can start to create the bastard run and the god run. As you might expect, it starts with Brooks (it could be the case that in reality, the bastard draw is Krcmar), but we'll just go with Brooks, if only because I have each way money on him and want to hype. We'll then go into Ratajski round two (think the tested veteran who's actually won stuff might play out better than the younger players who haven't, and might play at a pace that's more conducive to Littler. Can consider qualifiers in round 3 but Cullen looks to have enough numbers, Cross and van Veen are the obvious next two choices, then for the semi I think maybe there's someone in better form than Bunting, but we'll trust the numbers, and then go Humphries in the PDC's dream final. This gives us a Littler winning chance of:

0.8225 * 0.9053 * 0.9359 * 0.8277 * 0.8003 * 0.8106 * 0.8287 = 31.01% binking chance

That is quite remarkable in that if you construct the hardest possible draw, the bookmakers couldn't even price Littler at 5/2 and be profitable.

What about the god draw though? Here I'm going to try to be reasonable and avoid bUT kIrK ShePHeRd mADe tHe fINaL oNCe permutations, I doubt that ever happens again, at least in terms of basically coming out of nowhere. We should all know who Mitchell Lawrie is by now, should a non seed get pretty deep, it's probably going to b e one we know. So let's go sensible. First round I'm taking Pusey, if only because he'll be demoralised at having to change his nickname. I could pick an unseeded player for round two as well and say someone will pull an upset, but Tricole's numbers look weak enough that it's less controversial just to go with him. Round three we want someone to knock Cullen out. I'm going to look at who's knocked him out of European Tours at the first round and use that as a "reasonable" yardstick. Ryan Meikle gave him a 6-1 shoeing and is in the bottom few names for who'll be in the 33-64 list so that seems as reasonable as any (plus we get the rematch knowledge that even when Meikle was looking really good, he couldn't really do much at all). Round 4 we need to have someone reasonably good to knock out Cross. de Decker would fit that bill in a 16 v 17 seeding match, there's ptobably someone weaker who could reasonably take both of them out, but MdD seems the most reasonable. Into the quarters and I think we realistically need to pick a seed. Here I'm going to go with Joyce - he has hit some form, has course and distance for this stage, and would it be that unreasonable to say something like van Veen ran into someone like Springer or O'Connor in the early stages, went out, then Joyce turns over Dobey and whoever took out GvV? I don't think that's TOO much of a stretch. Semi final I'll just take Aspinall, again in decent form, think it's a reasonable argument that he could turn over any of the names ahead of him right now. Then in the final, we'll take Price, going for the Nijman upsetting Humphries early to open up the section and have MvG, Ando and Rock beat seven bells out of each other softening them all up. This god run would give you:

0.9940 * 0.9780 * 0.9817 * 0.8885 * 0.9686 * 0.9372 * 0.8294 = 63.82% binking chance

Now that's not a huge percentage. It'd probably allow the bookies to ptivr him up at 1/2, but if you want to come up with some realistic path that's even weaker, then be my guest. We've already got four matches in the slate that are over 95% for Littler, and another that isn't too far off. Maybe you can get it a tad shorter if you want to make an argument that a non seed would clear out both Cross and de Decker, but factor in the scoring numbers - Mike isn't exacrly lighting it up, so who out of the non-seeds is both significantly worse than de Decker yet could realistically take them both out (or, perhaps, get an assist by someone knocking one or both out before they would ordinarily face them). You're pushing it. I don't think you can realistically make an argument that you can get a weaker finalist - you'd probably indeed need to go back to that Part/Shepherd final before you got a real surprise finalist, at least in the lastt decade the only name you could say wasn't hugely known the year before they got to the final was Cross, but he was certainly known at the time, then you're looking back further at maybe the likes of when Hamilton or Whitlock made the final, but neither was random (and I've skipped the first Wright final where MvG won as well, as I was on him each way to bink at the time and hence known).

Naturally, the draw is probably not going to be one of these two polar opposites, and is probably going to come down somewhere in the middle - although leaning a bit towards the bastard draw. If you gave him something like Beveridge, Suljovic, Cullen, de Decker, van Veen, van Duijvenbode then Rock in the final, that comes to about 38%. Let's call a typical path 40% - that seems a long way off saying he should be shorter than evens, especially if you consider that I have been MORE optimistic about Littler's chances against elite players - looking back I took Littler only on three occasions, the semi and final of the worlds and the Slam final just now, and all for relatively speaking large amounts. If I'm right, then these numbers are fine. If I'm wrong, and I'm actually overestimating Littler's chances, then it seems even less reasonable to say Littler should be odds on for the title, barring any arguments people might like to make in that he's only so short already because of bookmaker liabilities - although that wouldn't explain that the exchange has him at 2.3-2.4 depending which perspective you want to take.

tl;dr - no i'm not backing littler at 11/10 outright i'll just wait for the latter stages thanks

That was the tournament that was

Those of you that saw my X posts straight after the semi finals would have seen me in disbelief at the lines for the final. Littler being available at 4/6? Really? Normally, be it either some combination of expected public money, lack of belief that the opponent can get close, or both, he's unbackable. He was 1/10 against Noppert for crying out loud (not that I thought Noppert had more than a 10% chance anyway, bue we still can't bet Littler obviously). So when I see that sort of line, and the projections have, regardless of data size, Humphries below 30% and averaging out at 25%, it becomes a case of how much money I can get on it, with the last time I've seen this sort of thing being right before Littler became world champion, and we all saw what happened there. Still, not complaining. The top two being Luke means there's not wholesale changes to the FRH rankings:

1 Luke Littler

2 Luke Humphries

3 Michael van Gerwen (UP 2)

4 Gian van Veen (UP 2)

5 Stephen Bunting (DOWN 2)

6 Jonny Clayton (DOWN 2)

7 Danny Noppert (UP 1)

8 James Wade (DOWN 1)

9 Gerwyn Price (UP 1)

10 Josh Rock (DOWN 1)

11 Chris Dobey

12 Ross Smith

13 Damon Heta

14 Martin Schindler (UP 1)

15 Nathan Aspinall (DOWN 1)

16 Jermaine Wattimena (UP 1)

17 Mike de Decker (DOWN 1)

18 Gary Anderson

19 Wessel Nijman (NEW)

20 Ryan Searle (DOWN 1)

Menzies slides out and also falls behind Luke Woodhouse who's one spot away from the top 20 for what I assume would be the first time. Michael Smith is very close to being back in the top 32, Ricky Evans is safely back in the top 50, with Lukas Wenig threatening that spot as well. Should be noted that positions 3 through 8 are all separated by less than 10,000 points, and this does not include first round money for the PC Finals, so van Gerwen will see a significant ranking drop prior to the worlds in all likelthood.

Some huge names got into the worlds this weekend. Baetens finally made it, Gawlas and Kciuk return (might even be Krzysztof's debut, not sure), Critso Reyes is back from nowhere which is great to see, and Boris Krcmar is another fantastic addition.

I'll get projections for Minehead out later this week, may only be the day before, bur before then I've got a new stupid tournament format I want to suggest, so I'll get that up.

Slam quarters

Now on to the super long games with super dumb scheduling, I've gone on about this in the past so I won't reiterate my thoughts, which given they're supposedly going to 48 players next year (please god don't be 16 groups of 3) is going to be horribly moot in any case. Nice couple of pick ups on Evans and Rock, although they both cut it a tad too fine for my liking, fortunately the edge on MvG wasn't enough to actually bet so a small bullet was dodged there. This is also at the incredibly dumb stage where we get Littler/Rock, which should be dynamite, and then three rematches, which shouldn't. You could keep all the games on the same day but draw the last 16 as A1-D2, B1-C2, C1-B2, D1-A2 which'd have pushed the only rematch possibility to the semi final, but we can't always have nice things.

Humphries/Smith - 83/80/76/80

Evans/Price - 27/19/15/20

Littler/Rock - 72/73/73/73

Noppert/Wenig - 83/83/79/82

So yeah, all four quarters are looking like they should be very one sided, fortunately the schedule is such that I can just go to sleep for a day and a bit and get someone to wake me up when Littler is on. Noppert being the biggest favourite is maybe a tad surprising and that you can get 1.3 on the exchanges easily enough represents a good bit of value to me, I'm not sure what Danny can do to not be underrated ever.

WDF worlds thoughts

Oh boy, this is going to be super happy fun times given the PDC took out an additional 32 players from circulation, yes half the additions will be from their own structure and not available to play WDF anyway, but this isn't nice. Numbers are year long legs won/lost in database and yearly scoring accordingly.

Jimmy van Schie (163-131, 89.30) v Alex Williams (13-19, 76.31) or Romeo Grbavac (2-9, 96.00) - Not really seen much of anything out of Romeo since what was a decent worlds showing last year, albeit in convincing defeat, maybe Alex has a bit less ring rust (got to guess Grbavac got in on events not on Dart Connect) but I think there's probably a decent differential in quality here. Both in the first round game, and the second, where Jimmy should have few problems.

Paul Krohne (14-27, 86.61) v Marko Kantele (89-86, 82.33) or Dalibor Smolik (3-6, 88.52) - Few familiar names here. Dalibor I assume popped up from getting through an ET qualifier, those aren't awful numbers so got to assume he's got something about him. Marko has been around forever and knows what he's doing, while Paul's a moderately new name but mainly through getting a card, giving it back, and it actually working for him. This is a really hard section to call.

Corne Groeneveld (31-17, 83.33) v Ryan Hogarth (17-23, 81.90) or Jonas Masalin (39-32, 86.98) - Interesting one. Corne's been showing up in quite a few WDF events over the past couple of years, but the numbers don't seen convincing, but there's some value in having got wins on the board. Hogarth showed up a few years back for having got deep in some events but never really kicked on, while Masalin is someone we've seen on the SDC circuit with respectable results, and may well be better than Hogarth as of right now, and could well have the game to push Corne - should he get there.

Stefan Schroder (no data) v Shane McGuirk (80-42, 88.78) or Petri Rasmus (0-5, 79.43) - Such a silly section where the defending champ enters in the preliminary round. Rasmus isn't a completely unknown name but certainly not a big name from the area, while Schroder getting the ninth seed is extremely bizarre, can only assume he binked something big that wasn't on DC. Still, got to look at Shane to get through here regardless of Schroder's pedigree.

James Beeton (72-77, 84.87) v Dennis Nilsson (26-34, 79.33) or Shane Sakchekapo (no data) - Now we get to the first player I have never heard of. Know nothing about Shane. As such, can't look past Dennis, then we get a real interesting one between a young player we've been tracking for a while, and a veteran who can up his game on this sort of stage. Would think James would have the edge, but it not be a trivial game.

Liam Maendl-Lawrance (51-66, 80.25) v Caleb Hope (no data) or Darren Johnson (13-19, 78.03) - And we go two for two in consecutive sections. No idea who Hope is. Johnson has all the experience in the world but how much he still has in the tank at this stage is in question. How much he will need is also in question. Liam we've seen for a couple of years, this year seems quieter but is still clearly a competent if deliberate operator, and ought to have the quality to require Darren to up his game to get through.

Benjamin Pratnemer (27-32, 84.95) v Karl Schaefer (26-28, 81.48) or Daniel Bauerdick (10-11, 79.81) - Don't know a great deal about either of these first round players. Karl's numbers seem a tad better although over a limited sample, and I think that he's probably playing a higher standard of player in general which might give him the edge, but I can't look past Pratnemer, clearly doing enough at a decent level to get the seeding and with decent results in the past.

Dave Pallett (55-61, 83.58) v Kevin Luke (19-21, 78.92) or Sybren Gijbels (26-31, 80.24) - Back to players we know stuff about. Kevin's been around on the US circuit for a while, albeit being more or less a player making up the numbers when it gets to the higher levels of that circuit, ahile Gijbels has shown flashes on the Euro Tour and in the WDF events so is probably the round one pick. Pallett's done a nice job of reshaping his career after being in the PDC for quite some time and still has the quality to put aside either of these, at least you'd think so.

Jason Brandon (116-128, 84.04) v Mitchell Lawrie (38-19, 94.15) or Tomoya Maruyama (3-4, 87.03) - Much as it was the Australians last year who were severely overseeded, this year it might be the Americans. Not that Jason is a bad player, but he's not a number 2 quality player (seeding, not that sort of number 2). This seems quite trivial to call, Maruyama I've never heard of despite him being in my database, Lawrie is the next big thing, and barring any sort of big stage meltdown this should be the exciting young Scot's to take.

Andy Davidson (13-11, 84.86) v Bradley Kirk (7-11, 78.21) or Jeff Springer (unclear) - I really don't know if Jeff Springer and Jeff Springer Jr are distinct players. It's really something I should get to the bottom of. Whichever way we look at Jeff, he'll likely have just enough to see off Kirk, who's a name we've seen around for a while but nothing more than just a name we've seen around for a while, and Davidson, who again seems somewhat unspectacular, might just be that bit better again.

Matt Clark (7-17, 81.03) v Vince Tipple (9-3, 81.86) or Haruki Muramatsu (21-24, 85.19) - Can't really look past Haruki here, who has a wealth of experience and will be perfectly comfortable with either of these. Tipple must have binked a silver event somewhere to get that won-loss record, but while not an unfamiliar name has a feel of making up the numbers, while Clark has a huge amount of experience but whether it can translate into wins at this level is very much in question.

Francois Schweyen (64-62, 83.77) v Brian Raman (48-36, 86.99) or Jeffrey Sparidaans (97-91, 86.37) - This is a super interesting section of the draw featuring a bunch of good European players. That first round match could legitimately have been a quarter final, Raman and Sparidaans both being ex card holders with legitimate WDF credentials that'll be too hard to call. Schweyen completes the section and is certainly no bad player but I think is a clear third best here, although with more than enough game that whoever wins the opener will have to work to make the last sixteen.

Neil Duff (60-46, 83.56) v Ben Robb (78-83, 84.55) or Johan Engstrom (110-115, 86.34_ = Really fun mini section. You could make a reasonable argument that any one of these three possible matches would not look out of place in the last 16, if not further into the event. Robb I'm a little surprised to see here, I would have thought that even though Jonny Tata got the main NZ spot for Ally Pally that Ben could have got there as well with the expansion but I guess not, known really solid competitor who's never quite cracked it at the PDC worlds level but here could be a dangerous opponent. Johan's been around the SDC circuit and we know plenty about him and has to be taken seriously at this level, while Duff has course and distance and is doing enough on the circuit to secure the number 3 seed, so is another one who clearly can't be dismissed. Would not be surprised to see any of these three get out of this section, it ranks very closely for me.

Thomas Junghans (38-38, 81.57) v Jim McEwan (9-1, 91.00) or Stephen Rosney (4-6, 80.42) - A somewhat less interesting section now. McEwan has been around the block and knows how to play, while Rosney was a new name to me only very recently on account of good runs in Killarney, and then clearly in the qualifier to get here in the first place, so while Jim has the experience, Stephen might have the form and be hitting this event at the right time. Junghans isn't bad by any stretch but is one of the weaker seeds for sure, and while he'll make them work it really souldn't surprise me if whoever won the first round game turned him over here as well.

David Fatum (32-36, 82.34) v Jenson Walker (73-78, 84.96) or Jiri Brejcha (0-6, 78.21) - Few different things going on here. Walker seems like someone who is definitely just passing through the WDF system and will eventually end up with a tour card and might already be the best player of the bunch. Jiri's from a rising area who I assume from that record we did see on the Euro Tour last year, albeit briefly, and I get not awful but just making up the numbers vibes. Fatum on the other hand is the veteran who's had maybe the best run of his life with the Dutch Open final and can't be taken lightly. Think Jenson will squeeze home but it could be a close one.

Raymond Smith (156-75, 85.46) v Cliff Prior (36-33, 79.63) or Clint Clarkson (9-4, 76.94) - Pretty trivial section compared to most. Clint I know nothing about, but is at least in the database, wile Cliff I know not that too much about but is at least a familiar name and doing better numbers so the home player I think should be fine, while Raymond (who's another from his area that I'm surprised couldn't get a PDC worlds spot) is one of the known good players in the field, even if the numbers quoted look a bit pedestrian, and should easily defeat whoever does actually come through round one.

From there? I think it's a case of identifying the known "good" players (and I'm not trying to be disparaging by implying the rest of the field is shit, by good I'm basically meaning wouldn't look out of place on the PDC circuit) and identifying if and when they might be stopped. van Schie is one of them, should have no problems in the last sixteen, but then McGuirk or maybe someone like a Groenefeld might ask some questions at the quarter final stage. Second quarter I don't think has anyone - Pallett may have been there in the past, Beeton might be there in the future, but for 2025 I'm not seeing anyone. I think it's all the seeds coming through to the last 16, and those two I list facing off in the quarters, and that one should be close but the finalist will come from the top quarter. Third quarter is just a question of how good Mitchell Lawrie is already. If he beats Brandon I can't see him not making the quarters, where I think whoever comes through the Schweyen section  Those three are all real good, if whoever plays Haruki beats Haruki (which won't be trivial but I would expect them to do it), then I think they have enough to play the Veenstra role and kill the hype train just as Richard did to Littler back when. Then in Q4 the known good name is Smith - think the only player who could realistically stop him before the quarters is Walker, and I think he'd have the edge on whoever he plays there, and I get the feeling it'd be whoever gets out of the Duff section with the Junghans section looking ordinary in comparison. As for a final? Let's go van Schie > Sparidaans. Why not.