Monday 16 January 2017

BDO Worlds stats report

Straight of the bat, congrats to Duzza. Looking at the list of PDC Q-School entries, it doesn't look like he's entered as was rumoured. So how would they do if they switched?

As stated in a previous post, it takes very little time to pull stats from the BDO, so I've looked at all of the scores, pulled all the data for all matches, and here's how things look:

Category       |sub 12|sub 15|sub 18|losing leg average
Whole comp     |05.48%|43.15%|85.58%|84.05
Last 16 players|06.39%|46.65%|87.22%|86.12
Quarter players|07.06%|50.34%|88.84%|87.27
Darryl Fitton  |03.70%|42.59%|75.93%|87.14
Jamie Hughes   |03.92%|41.18%|90.20%|90.10
Danny Noppert  |10.71%|52.38%|90.48%|90.36
Glen Durrant   |03.53%|54.12%|91.76%|88.23

What can we tell from this? It's kind of hilarious that you need to eliminate everyone who didn't make the quarter finals before you get to a quality where you have players good enough to kill in 15 more than they don't. Fitton's stats are horrible - only in the legs he loses is he actually above the tournament average as a whole. Hughes if anything is worse, but at least he can kill in 18 a respectable enough rate, although how he got to the semi, I don't know - in legs vs Adams it was 17 all - Adams had 12 of those in 15 or less, Hughes had five. Heck, Adams has 63% fifteen darters as a whole, which blows anyone out of the water in the semis, and his four twelve or betters out of 41 is only slightly worse than Noppert, and Adams is also over 90% in sub-18 or less. Noppert probably is the best of the bunch, Durrant only just edging him on 15's and 18's. How good would Durrant be? I've still to finish the PDC worlds stats, but those stats aren't mindblowing, and he's simply doesn't hit enough 12's to compensate for not hitting many 15's. He didn't hit a single twelve darter in the final. van Gerwen hit thirteen 12 darters. Durrant could only manage thirteen 15 darters. Noppert's a more interesting prospect - if he can clean up one in five of the 18 darters into a fifteen, and put a bit more pressure on the losing legs, he's basically James Wade. At 26, he's certainly got a bunch of time and doesn't need to rush to switch, if he can get another final in 2018, or even bink it, he's then got the financial clout to give it a proper go without having to worry about results.

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