Thursday 19 January 2017

The most important double to hit

Bunch of things I want to talk about right now - Q-School is going on, the PDC have announced a bunch of changes to the European Tour and major championships which seem on the face of it terrible and seem to favour nobody, I want to get into betting and summarising where I'm at so far, but for now I just want you to think of the following scenario.

Standard PDC tour match, first to 11 legs. Let's give us two identical players - how good they are isn't that relevant to the exercise, but I've used a standard profile of for each ten legs, they'll throw one 12 darter, five 15 darters, three 18 darters and one 21 darter.

Obviously, the bookies have them equal and they'll win 50% of the time. That is, of course, assuming that they're equally good at throwing for the bull, and will have the advantage of throw half the time. But what if someone becomes perfect at throwing for the bull? How often does he win now?

For these purposes we'll assume he doesn't now just start throwing 150 every visit and this magical talent wears off once on stage. What we need to calculate is how often a game goes to a deciding leg, and how often we win on throw compared to how often we win a leg where it's a toss-up as to who throws first.

The latter is easier - obviously in the everything identical category, we win the final leg half the time. However, if we have throw, we win the final leg 68% of the time. But how often do we get to 5-5? We can just simulate a bunch of legs and see that this happens 26.6% of the time.

Plug those two results together and we increase our match winning percentage from 50% to 54.8%, rounded off a bit. So, in this situation, we get an extra win once every 20 matches. Think about how many matches a professional will play over the course of the year, and it's easy to see that this could work out to thousands in prize money, given that you win a minimum of 500 quid for every single Pro Tour win.

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