Thursday, 27 February 2020

Belgium day 1 picks

Qualifiers are done, which has seen Wesley Plaisier and Ryan Harrington get through the associate qualifier (interesting to see Norris made the trip for that one), and Geert de Vos, Ronny Huybrechts and Jeffrey van Edgom make it through the home nation qualifier. Bit of a disappointing turnout for that one, no Vandenboegaerde or Baetens, oddly enough. Never mind that though, two great things this evening, there's already lines up for all the games including the qualifiers, and Dirk van Duijvenbode's liked my tweet bemoaning his bad luck re: draws. Day 1, what do we have?

Darren Penhall v Ryan Searle - good game to open up, obv Searle has won an event, but Penhall's had a solid enough opening to his PDC career so isn't without his chances. The line looks competent enough though, maybe Searle's got slightly better chances than the 1/2 odds currently quoted, but it's incredibly slight.

Andy Boulton v Andy Hamilton - the Hammer's back on the European Tour, and the markets have this fairly even. Not sure why, 0.25u Boulton 11/10, he's a lesser name but he's playing solidly better darts than Hamilton is and has been doing so for some time.

Kai Fan Leung v Steve Beaton - interesting opening matchup for Kai, and one that I think he can take if he can take what he's done on the floor so far against Beaton who, while we know what Steve can do, hasn't had the best six months or so. 0.25u Fan Leung 13/10, it's not that far odds against so they are respecting his game somewhat, but probably not enough, Kai's playing the better stuff as of right now.

Luke Humphries v Ronny Huybrechts - great for Ronny to get an appearance in front of a home crowd, but it'd take a huge price for me to consider going against Humphries in current form, 5/2 isn't it.

Michael Barnard v Damon Heta - still not quite sure how Barnard got through a qualifier but it is what it is, will be interesting to see what Heta will do on a European Tour debut, but I can't see any way he messes this up, 0.5u Heta 1/3, this seems very safe.

Wesley Plaisier v Benjamin Pratnemer - Plaisier's back through the associate qualifier again and gets the worlds competitor Pratnemer who got through the eastern qualifier. If you can actually get on the evens that Sportingbet are offering on Wesley and not get it palped then there's a tasty arb available, but we're not going to be interested in that, 13/8 on Ben's half tempting but I think I'll pass due to lack of data.

Martijn Kleermaker v Stephen Bunting - boy does this one look decent, Martijn's not lit it up quite as much as I thought he would do, but has a stage opportunity against the former Lakeside champion, and he's a decent underdog, which I think is worth a poke - 0.25u Kleermaker 21/10, this seems a bit more like a 6/4 sort of game so we'll push what looks like enough of an edge.

Justin Pipe v Mervyn King - afternoon session closes with two veterans and former Euro Tour winners colliding, no clue why Pipe is the dog, 0.25u Pipe 13/8 is very easy, probably the easiest pick so far, that line should be the other way around.

Dirk van Duijvenbode v Luke Woodhouse - what a great game to start the evening session, two of the more in form players that are under the casual fans radar, and the bookies can't split them, I think it's fairly close to going with a DvD bet at evens, but this only feels 55/45 or there abouts so it's not that big of a deal.

Mike de Decker v Ron Meulenkamp - this is evens each of them? OK, I'll pick one if you're printing a pick'em line, 0.25u Meulenkamp evs, Mike may be at home but Ron's the superior player and this ought to be 8/11 in his favour roughly.

Callan Rydz v Gabriel Clemens - tough draw for the North East native, who's not done a great deal in his first few tournaments as a tour card holder, Clemens is rightly installed as a better than 2-1 favourite, which is right where I'm seeing the line.

Danny Noppert v Geert de Vos - I've got nothing on Geert. At least not recently. Danny's 1/3 which given how he's been performing for a long time now doesn't seem too unreasonable.

Ryan Harrington v Kim Huybrechts - Rod's lad lives! Maybe not for long against a rapidly improving Huybrechts in Belgium, 0.5u Huybrechts 5/11, Ryan's really done very little to warrant betting against Kim and his qualification performance showed nothing truly threatening.

Rowby-John Rodriguez v Steve Lennon - I'm not even going to look at the master computer for this one. Steve's returned to peak form and should ride through it, he's 1/2, that might even be value.

Steve West v Jeffrey van Egdom - Another qualifier I have no recent stats on. He's 6/4, which isn't enough to make me consider going against an established player like Steve, Jeffrey's final round average was OK, but that's not going to cut it unless we know for sure Steve's going to miss chunks of doubles.

Dimitri van den Bergh v Derk Telnekes - This line seems alright to me. Dimitri's 2/5, perhaps a little short, but that it's in Belgium in front of (by this stage) pissed Belgians surely counteracts any small edge on Telnekes.

That's the lot, seven picks, let's see what happens.

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