Saturday, 29 February 2020

Belgium day 2

Well, at least one short priced favourite flew in yesterday:


Yes indeed, whoever had "the first session" for whenever sportradar would have their first fuck up of the Euro Tour season had their bets fly in, albeit at a very short price, especially when they fucked up the Glen Durrant Premier League game yesterday, and took a good couple of hours at least to even turn on the usual dartsdata feed, leaving us relying on their multi-sport page that Carl found. Oh well, at least there was one hero who'd posted the game up to Youtube so we've got full stats coverage. Today:

Smith/Huybrechts - Ronny won, and played pretty well in doing so, that was a big surprise. Almost enough for me to consider taking the better than 4/1 that's offered, but Smith's surely too much of an ask, then again I thought Humphries would coast through. Never mind.

Cullen/Kleermaker - Not really noticed what Cullen's done this season to be honest, he seems fairly anonymous and I don't know whether that's a good or bad thing for how he's playing. Probably neither. He's 4/7, that may be a little short but it's not quite enough to make me think about betting on Martijn here.

Ratajski/Clemens - Must see TV. Bookies have Krzysztof as a slight favourite. That seems fair, both are incredible players, although the Pole does seem to have the marginal edge.

Cross/Heta - Rematch anyone? I think we can have a small piece of Damon here, 0.25u Heta 19/10, Damon played very nicely yesterday and Cross not being on peak form over the last few months is well documented, Rob's the favourite, but it's only just the case as I see it so Damon getting the 40% or so that this needs to be a comfortable bet looks probable.

Wade/Lennon - As for Cullen, see the same for Wadey, I think we can have a stab at Steve here as we know he's doing alright, 0.25u Lennon 13/8, this looks like close to a pick'em, that's how well Steve's playing right now.

Aspinall/Beaton - Nathan's on a bit of a different level to Steve at this stage, and while we were looking at going against Steve yesterday, if we're doing anything on this one it'd actually be the other way, as while Nathan's the better player, it's not really enough to warrant Beaton being nearly a 5/2 dog. It's close enough that I don't want to bet on it, but I wouldn't hate an Adonis punt.

Wright/Hamilton - Andy was one of two players who did us over with last leg breaks yesterday, a very nice twelve darter with Boulton waiting on tops for the match, we're being offered huge odds here but I really can't see Peter being quite so generous as Boulton was yesterday where he missed thirteen darts at double, most over three legs he lost (nine in one leg!).

van Gerwen/de Decker - I think we should always be looking at laying MvG against anyone competent, and de Decker certainly qualifies there, but it's only 6/1, I'd have expected more and would put a fair line at just 5/1, so I'll pass that one.

de Zwaan/Huybrechts - Should be an interesting one, especially factoring in the Belgian crowd, this one looks very tight, so 0.25u Huybrechts 9/5, this has the same sort of feeling as the Heta game in terms of edge, and that's just raw numbers, tack on the home field advantage and it looks even better.

Hughes/van den Bergh - Which Dimitri will turn up? Very tough to say. I'm finding it hard to split them and so are the bookies so I'll leave this one alone, it's got a bit of a minefield taste to it.

Suljovic/Searle - Mensur against the newest Pro Tour winner is an interesting clash of styles, Suljovic appears to be priced up correctly, I'm seeing it as slightly better than 60/40 in the Austrian's favour so with Suljovic at 4/7 we can pass that one easily.

Clayton/West - Steve had a real easy game against an out of sorts van Egdom, Clayton's a different kettle of fish though, it's another one we can avoid as I'm seeing the same odds and same advantage to the Ferret as in the previous game.

That doesn't seem like enough games to me... and it's not, oddschecker is missing four games, let's rattle through them, Duzza/King's priced about 63% towards Glen, it's a bit more than that to me but when the vig's there there's no bet. White/van Duijvenbode sees Dirk slightly longer than 2/1, Dirk's playing well but I can't justify anything on this one, White is just that strong. Wattimena/Noppert is a fun tie which could gain bragging rights in the fight to be the Dutch #2, it's priced as a flip and I think the same as well, which just leaves Price against Plaisier, Gerwyn's obviously a huge favourite, I don't have enough on Wesley recently to get a real great read but I think I know enough about his level that it's a justified line.

Back later with the last 16 and whatever we can see from the Nordic/Baltic and Development Tours.

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