Sunday, 1 March 2020

Belgium day 3

Before Belgium, props to Ryan Meikle and Berry van Peer on getting Development Tour wins, that rarest of days where Ted Evetts not only doesn't win one, he doesn't make a final (although he did get a semi and last sixteen), also a shout out to Dom Taylor for reaching the semi finals in both events. Also, Kim Viljanen was back in the winners circle edging out Darius Labanauskas in a deciding leg up in his native Finland, we repeat those sets of events today.

So, Saturday, narrow down sixteen games to three bets and they all lose, not ideal given we only needed one to get out with the narrowest of losses, looking at each of these Heta was 1/12 on doubles, most of those were in the comedy leg 2, but he did miss two in leg 4 and a dart at bull in leg 5, I don't think it's unfair to say that if he got two of those three then it's 4-3 on throw to Cross. Huybrechts was similar but closer, 4/19, a lot of de Zwaan's won legs he wasn't in checkout range as Jeffrey looked decent, but three clear in leg six and six clear in leg seven, pin either of those and it's 5-5 and he throws for the match, won't be greedy and say he should pin both and have won. Lennon looked great for five legs, then just forgot how to score which with Wade hitting four straight legs in five visits isn't ideal. Oh well, we continue to today.

van Gerwen/Smith - The English Michael isn't playing badly at all, but we're only being offered 11/4, which given how well the Dutch Michael is playing isn't really enough, I'm seeing between a 25% and 30% chance for Bully Boy, which is right in the range of where the market has the match priced.

King/Kleermaker - Decent shot for the unseeded players to get into the Sunday evening session, the market's thinking about 60/40, maybe slightly more, in favour of King. I kind of agree with that assessment, I think that the little bit of edge that King might have in that he's been in this position in the Euro Tour many times before will also help matters.

Wright/Noppert - Hmm, the market appears to be respecting Noppert a bit more than what it used to do, we can only actually get 9/4 against the world champion. Amazing what a near 109 average will do. That's kind of extinguished any value, I'm seeing Danny at just over 30%, so again, the lines look spot on.

Ratajski/Cross - How times change, this match is even money the pair. If anything, this should be a bit more favoured in the direction of the Pole, it's almost enough to go with him, but not quite, accounting for the fact that we know Cross's class is permanent and if he wants to turn it on, he can do.

van Duijvenbode/de Zwaan - This'll be quick and exciting, Dirk will surely not be worried about Jeffrey having just beaten Ian White and the pace will suit his game perfectly. 0.25u van Duijvenbode 13/8, on current form this one seems too close to call.

Wade/Aspinall - Seeded tie between one guy who dropped out of the Premier League and the guy who replaced him, market is thinking about 60/40 in favour of Aspinall. That is yet another line that I'm thinking is close to perfect, there's not much being given away here at all.

Price/Hughes - Which Jamie's going to show up? If it's the Hughes from the early part of 2019, it should be a real close and tight game, if it isn't, then Price could have this his own way. This is possibly priced a little bit too much in Gerwyn's favour, if we're looking at last six month's data then I'd have thought about 2/1, rather than 13/5, I'm just not convinced that Jamie scored heavily enough yesterday to be able to get enough darts at double.

Suljovic/West - Steve looked very, very good yesterday, stepping up where he needed to against Clayton who really wasn't giving much away at all, Mensur didn't look too bad himself. Don't think there's much value in this one as well, maybe the market is underrating Suljovic ever so slightly, but it's not enough to generate an edge.

So just the one tip then and it's the owner of everyone's favourite walk-on, there's a few that are close, but we'll leave them and see if anything crops up in the quarter finals.

edit - 17/10 on DvD had gone, so adjusted to next best price.

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