Wednesday, 4 March 2020

2020 UK Open tips

As ever, we don't have every game available to look at, so I'm going to have to give reads on those games that we know, and estimate the rest, with the nature of the UK Open field a lot of it's going to be somewhat speculative, so let's look at rounds 1-3.

Round 1

de Decker/Ashton - I think this is worth a small stab at Lisa, 0.1u Ashton 11/5, their winning legs aren't too far apart, that there's a big consistency differential is an issue, but maybe the crowd likely being on Lisa's side will make the difference.

Larsson/Meikle - Looks a great spot for someone who's ripped up the Dev Tour recently, 0.25u Meikle 4/5, he's favoured much more than that in my opinion.

Koltsov/van Trijp - Don't think there's much between then, although my data on Danny is limited. Maybe the values on Boris, but it's not much.

Davidson/Borland - Borland hasn't looked brilliant but should have more than enough against Davidson, whose Challenge Tour weekend was very worrying.

Heta/Waites - I can see why this is priced close, but it shouldn't be like that just on reputation, 0.25u Heta 8/11, reputation counts for little these days.

Telnekes/Kleermaker - Appears fairly close, oddly enough, can leave this one alone.

McKinstry/Sherrock - This ought to be close as well and is priced as such, almost want to take Sherrock at slightly odds against based on the crowd, but can pass on it.

Heaver/Noguera - Heaver's meant to be fairly decent, but I don't know where he's at with any sort of reliability to take him at not even 2/1 against a tour card holder who's scoring 89.

Huckvale/Burton - Burton certainly averaged a lot better than Huckvale on the Challenge Tour, and it's only that Adam had some decent results that's leaning me away from him. I guess I can pass, Stephen's only 4/5.

Harris/Taylor - Got a fair bit of data on these two, and it likes Cody comfortably enough, 0.25u Harris 11/10. It's over 60% so 11/10's tasty enough.

Siepmann/Kciuk - This looks very good, Steffen's not even close to Krzysztof, 0.25u Kciuk 4/6, almost tempted to go stronger, this probably ought to be closer to 4/9, if not shorter.

Jacques/Teehan - Small stab on Peter here, 0.25u Jacques 19/20, Teehan's not had the greatest of times since the worlds and Peter is projecting over 60%.

Askew/Ritchie - Ritchie looked alright on the Challenge Tour, and while we know Askew should be somewhat dangerous, I think Greg being a tiny favourite isn't unreasonable.

Smith-Neale/Cheeseman - Know nothing of Cheeseman. Know enough about Smith-Neale that a 2/5 price doesn't seem like it should be that far off the mark.

McGuirk/Rydz - Rydz ought to be the favourite, and is, but Shane appears to have enough quality that I think he'll get home around the one time in three that the market's thinking.

Williams/Owen - Challenge Tour sort by average special this one, 0.25u Williams 11/10, Owen's got course and distance here but it's been some time since he's shown what he can do.

Jones/Blades - Half tempted by Jones, but 4/7's just about too much on the short side given the projections I use will likely overrate him given his wild inconsistency.

van Peer/Roelofs - Owen didn't look great on the Challenge Tour and van Peer's had some success in recent times, so I think Berry ought to be favoured, he is, but I'd want a bit more than 4/7 to really consider it.

Doets/Thompson - Doets tops the Development Tour averages right now. That's almost worth punting on alone, but 2/5 is perhaps a wee bit unforgiving, we'd need to be right so often, I can't justify it.

fan Leung/Self - Kai's a quality operator, looking extremely impressive statistically, so much so that while I'd normally take mostly anyone at 4/1 at this stage I don't think I can do it.

Hunt/Sedlacek - Too close to call in both my projections at the market. Maybe I'm liking Sedlacek more than the market, but thinking he should be 10/11 when he's 11/10 is no biggie and certainly not worth betting on.

Burness/Leitinger - Seems a close game, market is like that, fortunately we don't need to punt so we can leave this one alone, Kevin may have a small edge but that's where the line lies anyway.

Barry/Tabern - Keane being the slight favourite feels correct, maybe Tabern's experience will count for something but it's another one we can just pass on.

Barnard/Brown - Steve's started the season very well. Michael not so much. Why this is so close is beyond me, 0.25u Brown 8/13.

Hamilton/Lynskey - Hammer's looked OK, doing enough on the Pro Tour in comparison to Patrick on the Challenge Tour that a 70/30 projection feels as if it's in the correct neighbourhood.

Beveridge/Rafferty - Think you can make an argument for either, not much to choose from, Nathan's mediocre showing last weekend is almost making me want to punt for Ice Cold (that is a great nickname) at just better than evens, but maybe it was just an off weekend.

Hayden/Clark - Similar game, can barely separate the two on fairly limited information, as the market has it tight we can move on, Rhys being slightly odds on is probably where I'd put the line as well.

Richardson/Penhall - We've got real data on these two - however it's saying too close to call. Darren's almost worth the shot at 13/10 but it's a big event for him and James has been in this sort of spot many times before, which may negate anything we have.

Menzies/Brooks - Cameron's been quiet for a few months now, but looks like he's done enough on the Challenge Tour that, coupled with historical information, his small favourite line against Bradley appears fair.

Beeney/Harms - 1u Harms 1/6, wish I'd have got on at 1/4, Aaron's outclassed against Wesley here.

Smith/Jenkins - Christ, how many razor-thin first round games are we going to get? This is one more in the market, with their Challenge Tour averages extremely similar, move on...

Atkins/Murray - Ah, finally one we can shove into the master computer, which reckons this should be near two to one in favour of Ryan, so 0.25u Murray 8/11

Round 2

de Decker/Ashton v Meikle/Larsson - If Meikle advances, then he should probably be about a flip against either, if it's Larsson that goes through, then he's got to be a decent underdog, don't take either of the other players anywhere south of 1/2. For all these conditional games I'll put where I think the line should be, but on Friday I'll be rushing back to enter live results and suggest live tips. If anyone puts up a really good performance (say no more than two legs won outside of fifteen darts and no really bad losing legs), then pull their chances in ever so slightly.

Koltsov/van Trijp v Davidson/Borland - Willie ought to be a 60/40 favourite against either of these, he's playing well enough.

Heta/Waites v Nentjes - Heta ought to be a 1/2 favourite against Geert, if Scotty gets through then call it evens.

Telnekes/Kleermaker v Razma - Going to be hard to call given Razma's up and down nature, Madars should have an edge but if you can get longer than about 13/8 on Kleermaker then go for it, Derk I'd want a little bit longer.

McKinstry/Sherrock v Noguera/Heaver - This is going to be an awkward one to read. I'd say Noguera's probably 40/60 or there abouts, but I'd just avoid this one as you don't know how either Jesus or Jason will react to the stage situation.

Huckvale/Burton v van der Meer - Should be a tight second round game, would probably line it up around 8/11 for Vincent against either.

Harris/Taylor v Lowe - Jason's playing very well and should be a decent enough favourite, around 60/40.

Worsley v Clark - Model can't separate the two, and neither can the market, move on.

Siepmann/Kciuk v Wilkinson - Hard to see how Wilkinson could be considered a favourite assuming Kcuik advances, but I'd need at least 4/5 to go with the Pole and have any edge, similarly I'd need 2/1 for Carl. If it's Siepmann somehow then Carl should be strongly odds on, if you can get 2/5 or better you'd have a good edge.

Ward v Carlin - Gavin rates decently better here, he's a fair bit more inconsistent than Harry but 0.25u Carlin evs looks very nice to me.

Jacques/Teehan v Meeuwisse - The two first rounders rate quite close on the market, and should both rate very close to Yordi, if the market chucks out 6/4 on anyone take the underdog.

Askew/Ritchie v Rodriguez - Rowby should be easily too solid for either. Hard to gauge a line with the lack of information on the two at main tour level, thinking that the Austrian should come in around 1/2, maybe 2/5, but probably doesn't.

Smith-Neale/Cheeseman v Rydz/McGuirk - Going to be tight to call. I would think that, assuming Adam gets through the first game, it'll be priced around 4/7 for Callan or Shane.

Williams/Owen v Gray - Adrian's not been hugely convincing, but should have a slight edge. If it's priced as a flip I'd probably take Adrian, but would need at least 7/4 to consider either of the qualifiers.

Jones/Blades v Whitehead - Conan projects more or less evens with Jones, and has similar wild inconsistency. If Wayne gets through then it's similar to the Meeuwisse game, if offered 6/4 either side grab it. If Gary gets through, he should be a fairly big dog, would take up to 1/2 on Whitehead in that situation.

van Peer/Roelofs v Evetts - Ted should be a decent favourite in this one, I'd price it 1/2 against van Peer and shorter against Roelofs, to give you a rough idea if they don't respect Ted's game.

Doets/Thompson v Pallett - I get the feeling that Doets is doing well enough that he ought to measure up fairly closely to Dave, all things considered. Another one where if the market chucks out a 60/40 sort of line then go with who the market doesn't like.

fan Leung/Self v Shepherd - Kai should be a prohibitive favourite here. If they think Kirk's got a realistic chance then go on Kai, 1/2 I'd probably take.

Hunt/Sedlacek v Bates - Barrie's in a bad enough place right now that he should be a large underdog. I'd go a 3/1 sort of line, if you can get a chunk better on either Adam or Karel then print the money.

Burness/Leitinger v Murnan - Joe's had a couple of good results, but nothing brilliant - this one ought to be a fairly tight game whoever advances out of it.

Barry/Tabern v Barnard/Brown - Assuming Brown gets through, which he should, then I think he'll have a small advantage against either opponent. As the market doesn't like him in his first game, then I'd imagine we're offered at least 6/4, maybe a lot longer, so keep an eye on this one.

Hamilton/Lynskey v Zonneveld - Might be a good spot for Niels here. I'm seeing him playing just about well enough that he should be a tiny favourite over Andy, and I don't think he'll be priced as such.

Beveridge/Rafferty v van Duivenbode - Another one that should be close, and might be exploitable - Mike I think has the better of it, but it's very marginal, that said, the market may favour the other guy, in which case go with Mike.

Hayden/Clark v Richardson/Penhall - I'd be tempted to avoid this one without seeing how Hayden or Clark do on the day. I'd guess 4/7 on Richardson/Penhall is the sort of price where I'd be avoiding the match.

Menzies/Brooks v Kenny - Kenny's had a good start to the season, but it's not a prohibitively better start - I'd put a line at around 8/11 on Kenny against Brooks, maybe closer to a pick'em against Menzies.

Beeney/Harms v Smith/Jenkins - Harms has enough quality here that he should be value at anything better than 4/5, regardless of opponent - if Beeney somehow gets through then almost no price will be too short on Smith or Jenkins.

Atkins/Murray v Bunse - Christian's looked alright, if he was to play Murray then I'd set a line at 4/5 for the German, adjusting a bit shorter if Atkins advances, if it was Martin going through then I'd bet at 4/6 on Christian, and I doubt I'd ever see a long enough price to go against him.

Baker v McGeeney - This one appears incredibly tight on paper, but we're being offered an alright price on the Mod, so 0.25u Baker 13/8, this is only 52/48 really.

Boulton v Robinson - No idea why this is close, 0.25u Boulton 10/11, this is easily 70/30 in Boulton's favour.

Smith v Michael - This is almost close to a punt on Michael, he's playing well enough that 2/1 is fairly close to value, but he only wins this in the high 30% region, so the edge isn't quite there for me.

Kantele v van Duijvenbode - Oddly, the market may have overreacted to Dirk's recent form. Marko's playing alright, he might have as much as a 40% chance here, so I really should be looking at the 5/2 price here, but it's so hard to back him because of the inconsistency variance and that he's lost a very high percentage of legs which extenuates that problem. The legs he wins are good, they're just real infrequent.

Derry v Kuivenhoven - Looks like an alright spot to go with Maik here, 0.25u Kuivenhoven 8/13, he's got a 70% chance to win here more or less, that's enough of an edge for me.

Round 3

I'm not going to go through every permutation here, just the guaranteed games, the rest will come live as we get down to it on Friday in running.

Humphries v Anderson - I really, really want to bet on Kyle here, the model loves him, but Luke's on fire right now, so I'll pass and regret it.

Huybrechts v Thornton - 60/40 line this one for me. Maybe tiny value on Robert, but it's not enough to consider a bet, Kim's at least trending in the right direction which'll help matters.

Payne v Woodhouse - Market appears to have this one perfect. They have Woodhouse as a tiny 4/5 favourite, I'm seeing 53/47 in Luke's favour. Nothing here.

Searle v Reyes - This is as near as damnit to 60/40 in favour of your newest Pro Tour winner. There's no value in this one either.

O'Connor v Dekker - Yet another game where the line looks good. Willie's playing darts to a good enough level that the 1/2 line is justified, maybe I'd have put it 8/15 but it's nitpicking.

Meulenkamp v North - There's few signs that Richard's getting out of his slump yet, but we can get nearly 4/6 on Ron? That'll do for me, 0.25u Meulenkamp 8/13, this ought to be nearer 4/11 really. He's that much better right now.

Lewis v Smith - Er, how is this one even close in the market? 0.25u Smith 8/11, that's a quite absurd line, Smith should be shorter than 1/2.

Schindler v van de Pas - I wouldn't like to call a winner on this one, and the market doesn't want to call it either. Probably goes to a deciding leg. Very competitive game.

Watch out on Friday for live tips as the afternoon session goes on.

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