Sunday, 1 March 2020

Cheers Dirk!

van Duijvenbode winning has clawed back roughly half of what we lost yesterday, so we're nowhere near in as bad a spot as it looked yesterday, obviously the highlight news is that van Gerwen is out, but despite that, looking at one book the longest priced favourite is 1/2, so is the semi final lineup as foregone a conclusion as things appear? Let's take a look.

Smith/King - Great result for Michael, nearly fucked it up from a 5-2 lead but got through 6-5, Mervyn was comfortable enough against Kleermaker despite never really hitting top gear. I think Mervyn's got a shot here, over the last six months their stats aren't too dissimilar, so with betway offering a large price we'll go 0.25u King 2/1, Mervyn's probably a good bet at even shorter than that.

Wright/Ratajski - Real tough test for the world champion this. Very tough. I'm reckoning this is around a 60/40 proposition, a lot of books have Wright as a stronger favourite than that, but not enough that there's any real value on Ratajski, I can see 13/8 but that's not quite enough really.

van Duijvenbode/Aspinall - Dirk's still in with a chance here, there's nobody left in the field that seems insurmountable, Nathan's rightly the favourite, but he's only just into the 60% chance bracket with the stats I'm looking at. As such, a small bit of Dirk, 0.1u van Duijvenbode 5/2, seems a decent enough play to me.

Price/Suljovic - Gerwyn crushed Jamie, who wasn't playing badly at all, while Suljovic also looked good against Steve West, who didn't look bad either. Mensur seems undervalued in this one, 0.25u Suljovic 2/1, the Austrian's stat line is very good and not far off Price's at all, this is fairly similar to the King game and analysis.

Elsewhere, Viljanen made another final but lost to Daniel Larsson, Ryan Meikle's made it two from three on the Development Tour defeating Nico Blum, but surprisingly fell early in event four - ran out of steam perhaps?

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