Saturday, 7 March 2020

UK Open round 5 bets

Round 4 wasn't too bad, at least compared to rounds 1-3, sure it would have been nice if Darren Webster hadn't missed a clutch of match darts in the deciding leg where he had 21 darts to win it, that'd have put us fractionally up for the tournament, but it is what it is. Sixteen games today, warning in advance that anything I put up for round 6 will be brief as I'm at the football today:

Gurney/O'Connor - This is odd, they actually only have Gurney at 4/5 - I'm guessing that this is either a reaction to Willie blasting his way to a huge lead against Chizzy and/or noticing Gurney's bottom of the Premier League, rather than catching on to Daryl being a tad overrated by everyone, needless to say whatever the cause is, it's putting the line round about where I don't want to bet the thing.

Hughes/Atkins - Hard to really tell where the Wigan lad is given he was the recipient of the bye, but Jamie looks good enough that we can bet him here, 0.5u Hughes 2/5, a ton on the averages yesterday is a great showing and I'm reading about 88% chances here, so 2/5 looks good value.

Cullen/Clayton - Market has this close, I don't think it's as close as the market has it, 0.25u Clayton 4/5, we've been saying Jonny is underrated for a huge amount of time now and it continues, he's probably winning this two in three and his performance against Waites yesterday shows that he's in nice form.

Dobey/Whitlock - Oh my god, what a game Chris had with Ratajski yesterday. I hope to got that, as it was on board 2, someone, be it the PDC or someone capturing the stream, puts the game onto Youtube. Game of the year candidate. In any case, the market puts this at around 60/40 in favour of the Bedlington man, which I think is close to a perfect line, Whitlock's declining but hasn't been completely terrible in recent months so has a bit of a chance.

Suljovic/van Duijvenbode - Thought Dirk was going to find a way to blow his game against Wattimena, but he got through, as did Mensur easily enough, the market's been pretty quick to react to Dirk's form in 2020 and only has him as an 11/8 dog, perhaps that's a slight overreaction, I've got Mensur at just over 60%, but it's not quite enough to consider betting on the Austrian in this one.

Evans/Price - Ricky's a large underdog here with the market thinking that Price wins 80% of the time or more, following a convincing win in all departments against a better player than Evans in Danny Noppert. Can't really see how Ricky wins this one, he has a slight chance, but it's just under 20%, so the linemakers look spot on again.

West/Klaasen - Steve got away with one against Lewis Williams, the qualifier really should have got through that one, while Jelle was among the first players through after a lopsided performance against William Borland, who I guess just ran out of steam after an impressive afternoon session. The Lakeside champ's favourite, but it's only 10/11, looks in the right area, I might have put it 4/5 or maybe 8/11 with vig, so another game to leave alone.

van Gerwen/Lowe - Sounded like a decent game between MvG and Aspinall, while Lowe powered away from Adie to give us a nice result after the first half dozen legs were fairly tight. The model's saying Jason has a one in four shout and we can get 7/1. It's very close, but I'm going to restrain from going even a tenth of a unit on account of us really not knowing how Jason will react to the big stage. It's not like we're on someone that's played a huge event before.

Tabern/Bunting - Alan's looked very solid in Minehead this weekend, which continued with a fine win over Richard North (who continues to be an irritant when we go against him), while Bunting just scraped over the line against VVDV. I was expecting this to be a Tabern value bet, but the model's actually showing Bunting as around a 2-1 favourite, which surprises me quite a bit. With it being around a 13/8 Tabern line, there's no value here.

Huybrechts/Wade - Kim got through a solid game against Ryan Searle after earlier swatting aside an out of sorts Robert Thornton, while Wadey was easily able to get by John Henderson. Market's seeing it as 60/40 in favour of Wade, there's not quite enough here to bet, it's probably slightly closer than that, but only by 3-4%, so we can pass yet again.

Schindler/McKinstry - Martin played the best he's done in months against Justin Pipe, I guess all he needed was for us to bet against him, while Kyle's come all the way through from round one and is doing well enough to be only a 60/40 dog in the market. That's a little bit too close for me, 0.25u Schindler 4/6, as we know from last year Martin was playing some great stuff and was probably the best player not to have qualified for Ally Pally, with him looking like he's on it from yesterday then I think that the 75% I'm seeing for the young German isn't going to be too far off.

van den Bergh/Edgar - Putting this on the main stage would have been money, but I guess we need to see van Gerwen again. I'm not sure why this is as close as it is in the market, 0.5u van den Bergh 2/5, this is pretty similar to the Hughes game, except I'm only up at 85% for this one, which is more than enough at a line that equates to 71-72%.

Clemens/Boulton - Gabriel edged one against Ryan Joyce, while Andy, often under the radar and underrated, outdueled Luke Humphries in maybe not the greatest game average wise. I think I can pass on this one, while I think Andy's a bit better than most people give credit for, the same can be said for Clemens, and the 2/5 line is possibly slightly unkind to the German, this looks more 75/25 to me.

White/Wright - Doesn't get any easier for Snakebite after edging past Durrant, while White took a bit longer than I'd have liked to get over the line against Ward but was never really in trouble. Market is saying Wright wins two in three, we know Ian's much better than that and it's maybe not even 55/45 in favour of Peter from how I see it, 0.25u White 21/10, assuming Ian doesn't choke on TV as is often the case this should be down to the wire.

Stevenson/Anderson - Simon got out of jail against Webster, while Ando was maybe a bit fortunate to get over the line against a rallying Steve Beaton. It's an 80/20 line, it looks a lot safer than that though, could easily be 1/7, 1/8, I don't see a huge amount of point in putting in enough units to make a punt worthwhile here though, it's not a Harms/Beeney lock situation.

Smith/Cross - Tie of the round here after Smith easily took James Wilson apart and Cross needed to pull away late in the game against Zonneveld, books have Smith as the slight favourite, I've got Cross as the slight favourite, but it's no more than 52/48, we can get 13/10 in one book and 6/5 widely available. It's close, but I'll pass.

Keep an eye out for quick stabs after the round 6 draw's been made, conditional on 4G connection over the Pennines not being shit as usual.

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