Tuesday, 21 July 2020

Matchplay day 4 thoughts - day 3 not so good

Still can't quite understand how White managed to blow that lead he had against Cullen, or how Chisnall capitulated against van der Voort (in that last one, Vincent at least got two very good breaks, but Chizzy could have broke in fifteen in any leg after the break but wasn't even on a double in any of them). Beaton losing out, meh, Lewis played alright I guess although Beaton in the final leg was incredibly disappointing.

We've just got the Aspinall/DvdB game to round out round one, then we've got all the top half of round two. I only really have lunch to look at these, so I'll be brief (and go in running order):

Smith/Suljovic - Mensur's pretty tempting at slightly odds against, I have to say. On 2020 form it's a flip slightly in favour of Michael, but on twelve months form it's more like 55/45 in favour of the Austrian, so 13/10 is close to worth it, especially with Suljovic having played well in round one. I'll pass on it though, Smith didn't play badly and the game will have taken a lot less out of him.

Anderson/Wade - Hmm, Ando is a lot more favoured over 12 month stats than I thought he would be, it's like 65% which seems a bit ridiculous. Over 2020 stats it's more like he should be a 10/11 favourite and that's it, I'd have guessed Wade might be a bit closer than that. With that 2020 form, Wade at 6/5 just doesn't do it for me, the relative first round games would point to James, but I'll pass again.

van Gerwen/Whitlock - van Gerwen isn't quite good enough in this one to be worth the bet, he's 1/9 so we'd need 90%, and we only get up to 80-85%. That's not good enough to bet Whitlock either obviously.

Clemens/Ratajski - Seems like the line's right again. 65/35 in favour of the Pole, which is more or less bang on the 4/7 you can get. Cut it down to 2020 data (which, as mentioned before, is somewhat tainted by Gabriel's lolworthy performances in Germany) and it becomes heavily in favour of Krzysztof, but without filtering out the Superleague I'm not sure how big an exaggeration it will be.

As such, no recommended plays today. I might dump what's remaining from the sole win in round 1 on a Mensur/Wade/MvG/Ratajski acca just for the sake of it.

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