Wednesday, 8 July 2020

PC9 draw out

Let's look for the value in this one. Here's something I've not done before, simply plot player's averages by board in a graphical form:


Now, irritatingly enough, I can't for the life of me find the option to display data labels, so I can't tell you who each little dot is, but it should be clear enough what I'm trying to do here - the dotted lines break the tournament into quarters, so let's see who we like. This data is filtered to 2020 information.

The first players that jump out are the players over 95 - van Gerwen on 3, White on 7 and Wright on 9. The only issue with two of these is they're quite short, with van Gerwen on just the right side of 3/1 and Wright a second favourite at 8/1. So we'll look at White - perennial value, and look at the enormous difference on his board between him and everyone else (and, for that matter, board 8 as well). Sure it doesn't help that he's in the same half as van Gerwen and Price, but at as much as 50/1 in one place, that's got to be worth the shot.

Who else might we like? Let's look at who has a decent bit of separation on his board to everyone else. Board 13 is jumping out to me, the blue dot is Krzysztof Ratajski, who's got a nice bit of separation between the rest of his board, and only Smith (Michael) on the adjacent board that looks in the same ballpark, so with him available at 40/1, I'll go for that value. The format is surely going to favour Ratajski as opposed to Smith massively, while that board 15 is a concern (that is the Aspinall/Anderson board), the bet surely has to be on the Pole here.

One final player I'd be tempted to have a look at is Glen Durrant - tipped by Edgar to do stuff, he's the highest dot on board 12, and while his board looks a bit dangerous on paper, he should be alright at 25/1. But what about board 11? That's missing a dot just below the pink one at the bottom as I can't spell Kirk Shepherd, but the guy at the top is Jason Lowe - and you can get 500/1! That's got to be worth a few pence of anyone's money.

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