Sunday, 19 July 2020

Some quick Matchplay thoughts

I said I wasn't going to post until round 2 bets, but I've got a bit of time this morning so will post some things. I've not watched the actual games, and just looked at the dartsdata results, so if I'm off based on that not reflecting gameflow, then fair enough, but here we go:

- How poor was Whitlock? 10-4 looks like a bit of a dicking, but he only won three of those legs in fifteen darts, the first two legs (where Joyce was hovering on 41 after 12 and 88) and the last one (where Joyce got himself on 87 after 9 then missed four darts at double). In between those, it was a whole heap of junk and if Joyce could have just got steady fifteens with any regularity he'd have rolled all over Whitlock, in those intervening 11 legs he won four and had doubles in another five.

- How good was Ratajski? Five twelve dart or better legs, only two going beyond fifteen darts, in the legs Wattimena did nick Krzysztof was averaging 102, that's very, very dangerous form and Cross or Clemens, whoever comes through, could be in a world of trouble if Ratajski gets even close to that. Sadly I think the secret's out enough on Ratajski now, even before tonight, so it wouldn't surprise me if he's priced as the favourite against Cross (he clearly would be against Clemens).

- That's super solid stuff from Wade, and super mediocre stuff from Anderson. Gary only managed half his legs in fifteen or better (mostly after the final break, it was 5-5 at that point and Pipe was hanging around fine), whereas Wade only had two of his twelve legs go beyond that mark (which incorporates the twelve he had to open the game). Anderson's the favourite, but without running the figures, I really don't think he should be.

- van Gerwen's numbers didn't look awe inspiring. Dolan did alright to hold things together at 7-7, but Michael, like Gary, only put together five legs in fifteen or better (admittedly two were four visit kills), and if it weren't for missed doubles, Brendan could have taken this. Two missed in leg 2, six in leg 4, and four more in the final legs were the key ones, take those and it's 10-7 the other way around.

We didn't have any bets yesterday, today's the first big one with three today and then three on Monday, I'll probably pop in this evening with some quick thoughts, I'll see how it goes. There's only the two second round games set up, I've said that my gut is thinking Wade will be value, but maybe Michael at 1/9 could actually be worth the play? It's really, really hard to be a 90% favourite, but even so...

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