Saturday, 18 July 2020

Matchplay round 1 bets

I've posted up the projections, scoring and analysis for everything now, so let's look match by match and see what we'll go with.

Whitlock/Joyce - nothing here. Market has it as a flip, I can't see it as anything really different than that, Simon has just enough to justify being the tiniest of tiny favourites at 5/6. Carl Fletcher's gone for at least 16 legs at 2/5, that seems alright to me if you're wanting to punt on everything or to add a bit of value to an acca, Joyce is a worlds quarter finalist so it's not as if we're going to see him bink a Pro Tour out of nowhere then shit the bed on the TV stage.

Ratajski/Wattimena - nothing here either. 23/10 on Jermaine looks half tempting if you're looking at the full length stats, but it'd only be marginal at best and in 2020, Krzysztof's winning chances look more in line with the 4/11 that you can get. You might want to consider Jermaine on a handicap where you're getting paid out 4/6 or something like that, but it's easiest just to move on.

Wade/Brown - same price as the above match. Keegan has shortened slightly since I posted the top half to the point where it's just about put me off a bet. It's probably just about marginal value, but everything is telling me that Keegan will not be able to hold his game together against a player like James on current form for long enough to get over the line often enough. If he can come out of the blocks quickly and get to half time at 5-5, maybe even 6-4 down, he could make it interesting, but I don't want a part of it.

van Gerwen/Dolan - nothing here again. van Gerwen is usually an auto lay, but in the longer format of the Matchplay, Brendan simply doesn't win often enough to make 7/1 look like even small value. Michael should be pretty comfortable and did look real good in the Summer Series.

Anderson/Pipe - would usually go with Justin here, he was playing well enough that he should be able to hang around with Gary for long enough that the 10/3 being offered would be a good play, but with Justin having needed to pull out of the back end of the Summer Series through injury, I can't recommend anything and am taking this one off the board, so there's nothing to recommend on day 1.

Suljovic/Hughes - and there's nothing immediate on day 2 either. The bookies are pricing Mensur at 8/11, which equates to having win chances in the high 50's, exactly where my projections are putting him. Nothing of value whatsoever here, Carl's done similar to the Whitlock game on an over leg count, can't say I like it as much here as I think there's enough results where Hughes has bad visits or Suljovic pulls away and we miss out.

Durrant/de Zwaan - 0.25u Durrant 1/2, I think we've got our first play here, it's not for much as the twelve month data makes this look like a fair line, but on 2020 data this should be nearer to 1/3 Durrant. Jeffrey was I guess struggling with the injury that saw him pull out of the Home Tour, and picking up just two grand in the Summer Series doesn't make me think he's improved back to the level where Glen doesn't easily take this at least two times out of three.

Cross/Clemens - no bet. I'm thinking both players are in the underrated category at this stage, while Rob has a bit of separation from the big three, he's still really good, while Clemens is capable of beating any seeds at this stage. 7/5 doesn't offer any value at all, maybe the Clemens secret's out, or maybe the bookies are sleeping on both players. Who knows. Whatever it is, we're not betting.

Wright/de Sousa - 0.25u de Sousa 11/5, this is a real tough draw for Peter, Jose is an extremely dangerous player who's continued his excellent level of play from the back end of 2019 into 2020, to the point where my projection model actually spits Jose out as a tiny favourite on 2020 data. On longer data he's only just up to 40% but that's still more than worth the shot at a price that's better than 2/1.

Smith/Clayton - 0.25u Clayton 13/10, Jonny's really, really good and extremely underrated, Smith's not done a huge amount in 2020, or since last year's Matchplay for that matter, the 6/4 that was available when I was looking at this match earlier in the week is long gone, but with the Welshman projecting as a solid 60%+ favourite whichever data we use and scoring more points per turn, we don't need to think getting better than even money.

Chisnall/van der Voort - 0.5u Chisnall 2/5, this looks like a safe play, Vincent's scoring is one of the worst in the field while Chisnall's all round game continues to improve, as well as being one of the heaviest scorers in the game today. The projections I have say this ought to be more in the region of 2/7, maybe 1/4, so 2/5 looks tasty enough, I really cannot see van der Voort doing this. The price is only available on Skybet, elsewhere is 1/3 or worse so grab this quick.

White/Cullen - 0.5u White 4/7, another Skybet special but the generally available 1/2 is still good, Cullen simply isn't in White's league as we saw last year and I just don't see how the projections that I have which give White winning three in four over twelve months data and seven in eight on 2020 data are in any way inaccurate. Better than 1/2 is really tasty and probably the bet of the round.

Gurney/Evans - no bet, Gurney's priced up at 2/5 which is probably a little bit on the short side, but it's really nothing much and I can't say that Daryl is a great matchup for Ricky stylistically speaking, Gurney should be able to grind this one out comfortably enough.

Price/Noppert - this is almost worth the shot on Danny, 11/4 is an alright price when I'm thinking this should be more of a 1/2 sort of game, especially if you're taking the opinion that Price plays his best when he feeds off a crowd which sadly isn't a factor right now. I'll give it a miss, Danny's someone who I think might not quite have the extra gear that he'd need to hang with Gerwyn if the Iceman's on form.

Lewis/Beaton - 0.25u Beaton 11/8, this is more on 2020 data than anything where I can't separate the two on more or less anything, Lewis has been pretty mediocre there and I'm not sure why he pulled out of the last Pro Tour before the draw, on full year's data the line looks right, but I'm thinking all of Steve's experience will allow him to adapt better than Adie to this situation.

Aspinall/van den Bergh - no bet to finish off. Nathan's priced at 2/5, so more or less a 70/30 game, the Belgian's certainly not without his chances, but is going to need to hit his top game to live with Nathan, who's become one of the most consistent players on the circuit. If he does so then he could certainly pull it out, Dimitri's peak is certainly comparable with Nathan's, but can he do it in this sort of environment is the big question. We'll see.

I probably won't be watching much of the first round, so I probably won't be back until round 2 bets unless something crazy goes on. See you then.

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