Friday 17 July 2020

Matchplay preview - bottom half

Better late than never...

(2) Peter Wright v Jose de Sousa

2020 data - Wright 48.6%, 96.39 ppt, de Sousa 51.4%, 95.30 ppt
12 months data - Wright 59.1%, 96.16 ppt, de Sousa 40.9%, 94.20 ppt

Oh boy, this is a great one. We've got the world champion against arguably the most dangerous non-seed in the field. And the bookies are respecting the Portuguese ace to a fair respect - he's only just longer than 2/1. Anyone that's not seen Jose play (and it's fairly easy to miss for the casual viewer) might be surprised at this, but it's an accurate enough assessment to me. I'm reluctant to automatically suggest a bet, given it is to the best of my knowledge the first time that Jose will be going up against an elite calibre player like Peter on this sort of stage, but if you take de Sousa I can't say you're getting the worst of it.

(15) Glen Durrant v Jeffrey de Zwaan

2020 data - Durrant 79.8%, 93.92 ppt, de Zwaan 20.2%, 88.88 ppt
12 months data - Durrant 66.9%, 93.46 ppt, de Zwaan 33.1%, 91.13 ppt

This might have been a tough match for Glen at some point in time, but I'm not seeing the issue if we look at more recent form. I believe Jeffrey said in a recent interview that he was having some sort of injury issue, which is enough for me to think there's no value in the Dutch kid, the line's basically 2-1 in favour of Duzza, so if we're going to go with any sort of gun to the head prediction it'll be with the Teesside native.

(7) Daryl Gurney v Ricky Evans

2020 data - Gurney 63.6%, 92.97 ppt, Evans 36.4%, 90.15 ppt
12 months data - Gurney 70.3%, 92.68 ppt, Evans 29.7%, 89.46 ppt

This is quite the clash of styles, and it's probably pitting two of the lower end players in each pool against each other. I've been bearish on both players for some time now, neither's really inspired confidence, although Gurney looking competent enough in spots over the Summer Series is probably enough for me to lean in his direction. It's not going to be a bet by any stretch of the imagination, he's 2/5 which is insane against anyone putting up enough results on the Pro Tour to qualify, but he should take it.

(10) Dave Chisnall v Vincent van der Voort

2020 data - Chisnall 80.6%, 91.40 ppt, van der Voort 19.4%, 88.54 ppt
12 months data - Chisnall 78.8%, 92.98 ppt, van der Voort 21.2%, 89.62 ppt

This'll be a nice game to watch. This should be incredibly fun, both players will likely play into each other's strengths, go along at a good clip, the only problem is that Chizzy's that much better than Vincent that it's probably not going to be interesting as a contest. Vincent's been alright in 2020 but hasn't done enough to make me think that my projections are off, and with Dave at 2/5 that's possibly tempting for a bet recommendation.

(3) Gerwyn Price v Danny Noppert

2020 data - Price 67.8%, 96.33 ppt, Noppert 32.2%, 94.00 ppt
12 months data - Price 66.0%, 94.76 ppt, Noppert 34.0%, 92.58 ppt

Bottom quarter - Noppie's got a tough draw, but so has Gerwyn. Danny's probably one of the most underrated players on the circuit, despite having made the World Series finals at the back end of last year and finding himself in the business end of floor tournaments more often than not. Make no mistake, Danny would be a huge threat to a number of seeds in this event, it's just unfortunate he's drawn Price - while there's probably a small amount of value with Noppie being the right side of 3/1, and while he'll probably be a recommended play, it's not anything to go crazy about.

(14) Adrian Lewis v Steve Beaton

2020 data - Lewis 49.8%, 90.20 ppt, Beaton 50.2%, 90.13 ppt
12 months data - Lewis 58.3%, 90.15 ppt, Beaton 41.7%, 90.14 ppt

How is Lewis still in the top 16? What's he done? No idea really, I guess he's done just enough in the worlds to hang around, without ever being someone who'll threaten to bink something huge, despite having the clear talent to do so and having shown the ability to go deep enough on the floor to keep ticking over. We know what we're getting with Beaton, it's maybe not a surprise that the bookies list this 60/40. I don't think there's going to be value in this one.

(6) Nathan Aspinall v Dimitri van den Bergh

2020 data - Aspinall 67.8%, 94.15 ppt, van den Bergh 32.2%, 90.75 ppt
12 months data - Aspinall 60.6%, 93.41 ppt, van den Bergh 39.4%, 91.23 ppt

This could be spicy. Aspinall's very much transcended the path from very good to the world's elite, that he is the #6 seed doesn't seem an exaggeration in the slightest, he is that good. Dimitri's managed to do enough on the floor whereby he's got into this, it's a bastard draw, and I think the issue is that Dimitri may not be able to get up for what is, for all intents and purposes, a floor tournament having taken a couple of speedballs. The market has it around the line that I'm projecting, the Belgian's been somewhat overrated in my rankings historically because of his up and down nature, so if there is any value here it'll be on the Stockport native.

(11) Ian White v Joe Cullen

2020 data - White 87.3%, 95.67 ppt, Cullen 12.7%, 90.43 ppt
12 months data - White 76.2%, 95.12 ppt, Cullen 23.8%, 90.84 ppt

This game simply isn't interesting. This time last year, these two drew each other, and White smacked Cullen up 10-0. Yes, since then, Joe's managed to grab a Euro Tour, which is nice, but it'd take an incredible display of character to be able to pull this one out. With Ian being the right side of 2/1 on and with my projections looking as they are, I don't see how I don't lump on the Stoke native here.

Bets tomorrow.

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