Thursday, 4 March 2021

UK Open round 1-3 bets (part 1)

OK, here we go, and here's how it's going to work - all 25 first round games (it was 26, but Hempel's withdrawn so van der Wal gets a bye, as does Joyce, given that Reyes must have some sort of prop bet going on a game of hide and seek with Wesley Harms), and any second and third round games where both participants are known already, I'll list here. Any games that are dependent on previous results will be in a second post, which I'll edit in running tomorrow morning/afternoon as and when we know who's playing who and as and when any profitable betting opportunities arise. Will go through board by board as that seems the easiest way to do it, if a match is in round two or three I will prefix it with (2) or (3):

van Peer/Schindler - Hmm, I was kind of expecting Martin to be a big favourite in the master computer, but looking at since the summer, it doesn't see a great deal to be excited about here, if anything it thinks we should go with van Peer. I think I can pass this one, if I look at just this last weekend then Schindler's about 80%, but at 1/3 I can't see the value.

Claydon/Baggish - 0.25u Baggish 8/15, Claydon doesn't have a great deal of legs won in the data, and he's scoring a fair bit better in the legs he lost, but Danny's got much more of a chance than two in three, it's more like high 70% or low 80% sort of range dependent on the sample you use for Baggish. Definitely worth the shot at better than 1/2.

(2) Beeney/Ashton - Odds look fine to me. Aaron's live, but I'm only seeing about a one in three shot, dropping below that if we use a greater sample. He's looking like he's improving, and Lisa's not had a great start to the year, but we can't even get 7/4 on Aaron. Stage experience may also be a big factor.

(2) Soutar/van Barneveld - Ouch, Alan is around 5/4. I thought we'd get a bit better than that based on name value alone. That line honestly seems fine to me.

(3) Hopp/O'Connor - Pretty tight one. Max projecting as the small favourite, maybe 55-60%, evens seems kind of tempting but it's been that long since Max did anything of note. Will pass it and probably regret it.

Mathers/Shepherd - Seems extremely flippy to me, Gordon having a small (<55%) edge on recent data, rising a bit to just under 60% on larger sets which'll primarily affect Kirk. Appears similar to the game above where we can get evens on Gordon, but I'll pass it again. Kirk's at least got to be confident given how he claimed his card.

Koltsov/Rusty Jake Rodriguez - Data loves Koltsov. Absolutely loves him. The market has it as a flip though, and Boris getting that advantage is from relatively few won legs, and I know from betting him in the past that he can have plenty of legs where he does fuck all which won't be reflected in the won legs stats. Overall scoring is comparable, and the model was only showing Boris up at two in three anyway, so both players being slightly odds on I think is safe enough to avoid.

Lerchbacher/Williams - Not a lot of data on either, and it seems fairly close all round, too close to call and too much variance. Jim's just odds on and Zoran's just odds against, so I think we can pass.

Nentjes/Burnett - Hmm, data is pretty close across the board here, and we can get a fairly good line on Richie. Goes against the Geert hype, and against what we saw at Q-School, but a small stab seems indicated, 0.1u Burnett 12/5. Will go small given there's a lot of variance in the data, but seems worth it.

(2) Atkins/Brooks - Line looks alright. Data's pointing out Martin has an edge and we shouldn't buy into the WYC hype, edge is somewhere in the 60%'s dependent on where you draw the line, so 8/11 isn't quite enough.

(2) Kleermaker/Jones - We can get a good price on Kleermaker here which we're going to take, 0.25u Kleermaker 4/5, he's up at 60% on a long sample and nearer to two in three over longer form, I don't see what's changed to make us think that this is as close as it is. We can't even say that Jones has done something of note recently, as he hasn't played.

(3) McGeeney/Beaton - 0.5u Beaton 2/5, this is simply being hugely unimpressed with Mark, he's done little since 2019. Steve's probably declining slightly, but still projects, since the Matchplay when we have 80 won legs on Mark and twice that on Steve, to win 90% of the time. 2/5? Yes please.

(3) Smith/Rydz - Extremely flippy. Too close to call, both players fluctuate from high 50%'s chances one way or another. 7/5 isn't quite enough to snap off on Ross here.

Griffin/Fisher - Appeared tricky to call given lack of data, Rhys is 4/6, he had a few extra points at Q-School, but is enough to translate to easily more than 60% wins? I wouldn't hate the bet but will leave it.

Jackson/Rafferty - Nathan's only a small favourite here, which is tempting. Only question is just how out of match practice is he? He wasn't overly impressive on scoring in the data where I've seen him in my data, so I think I can find enough reasons not to bet. Matt didn't do anything interesting at Q-School to make me go for it either, but should be competitive enough.

Kay/McDine - There's quite a differential in the scoring at Q-School. Simply not convinced by Keelan at this stage and Kevin's got a big experience edge. 0.25u McDine 8/15, won't go crazy on it but I think this looks fairly safe.

Rowby John Rodriguez/Raman - Rowby is a huge favourite in the market here, Brian is 7/2. That's big in a two horse race to six. Rowby's better, for sure, and the numbers reflect it, but while Rowby's tightening up consistency, there's still enough of a combination of Rowby having his all to frequent bad days with Brian coming up trumps to go small, 0.1u Raman 7/2.

(2) Kenny/Meikle - Ah, two card holders who made the worlds, so good data here. And the data loves Meikle, 70% or more. As such, 0.25u Meikle 4/6.

(3) Wilson/Brown - Intriguing one this. Keegan's not been doing it for a bit, and James rates to take this 60/40 over long data, getting up to 70/30 over shorter data. We can get odds against, so we'll take it, 0.25u Wilson 11/10.

de Vos/Zonneveld - Looks pretty tight on paper, only question is if what we've seen from Geert over fairly limited numbers of legs won is sustainable. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say maybe, he was certainly competent enough a few years back, so maybe an effective flip in the market is correct.

Lukeman/Verberk - Won't be betting this one. We're very limited on Lukeman, but the small amount we have seen is more impressive than Verberk, who played quite a bit last year and didn't look too good. Market has it about 2-1 in favour of Martin, which I think is an accurate enough assessment.

Taylor/Michael - Fair bit of info to look at with these two, it seems a tough one to read, probably close to a flip with Michael having the fairly small advantage in my dataset. The market's putting John in the 60/40 sort of ballpark, which I think is close enough that we can ignore the game.

(2) Rasztovits/Jacques - Peter seems a fair bit better than Michael, and is priced up such that the bookies think he's winning about 65%, that's good enough for me to give the game a wide berth.

(2) Waites/Brown - Scott is correctly a big favourite in both the market and in my model. Steve should not be able to get close, but there's no value on Scott, he's just too short.

McGuirk/Main - Jack looked alright in the first round of matches, Shane was a bit flashier at Q-School, but eventually didn't get the job done and Jack did. 0.1u Main 6/5, feels like there's just about enough there to take a poke.

Heaver/Pronk - Pretty even on scoring in the first week of Pro Tour. Half a point or so in it, but Jason's very even in won/lost scoring split whereas Lorenzo has an enormous differential. All in all Jason is slightly odds on, think that's probably about right.

Peters/Williams - Luc's got a chance here. Market has Lewis at a little bit longer than 1/2, that might be drinking a bit too much Lewy hype juice, sure, he's probably favourite but maybe not that much. Don't think it's worth the Peters shot though.

(2) Siepmann/Evans - Very tricky one to evaluate. Long form data - David has a huge edge. Recent data - Steffen has a huge edge. Market - can't split the two. Frankly I don't want to, if I knew that David had put last weekend behind him already, then this would be very easy, but we don't, so it isn't.

(3) West/Lowe - The projector is throwing out Steve as a favourite, both on recent data and longer data. OK then, I'd have thought that'd be the other way around. There's enough weirdness that I can avoid it, looking at the raw data I can see why it looks odd, but with the market saying around 60/40 in favour of Lowe I can avoid it.

(3) Boulton/Klaasen - Tricky one. Jelle's been doing good stuff and on recent data he's a 2-1 favourite, although over longer records, where Andy was having a nice end to 2020, Andy is up to the high 50% range. It's evens take your pick in the market, and we don't need to. So we won't.

McEwan/Bialecki - I don't know a great deal about these two, and I certainly have little in terms of main tour level data, but everything points to Sebastian having maybe a little bit of an edge, so 0.1u Bialecki evs, small given this is more of a hunch than anything, but I think there's enough of a feeling to go for it.

Barstow/Wenig - Two players who were close at Q-School but didn't quite get over the line, seems very evenly matched with Chas maybe having the tiny advantage, as he's 8/11 we can just look to the next game.

Murnan/Dennant - 0.25u Murnan 8/13, looks good to me, Dennant had some good scoring at Q-School and was maybe a bit unlucky not to get a card, but Murnan's been absolutely flying. No brainer.

(2) Worsley/Gilding - Think Andrew is better here. 75/25 on long term data. It gets to more like 60/40 on more recent form, understandable given Jon's made a semi, but still Goldfinger should take it. Much more experienced as well with course/distance and a higher ceiling as well. And we can get a good price - 0.25u Gilding 4/5, yum yum.

(3) Henderson/Edgar - Actually listening to a bit of Edgar TV right now, oddly enough. Hendo is the dog here, 60/40 since the Matchplay, more like 2-1 in Prime Time's favour of late. We can get odds against on Matt which is a steal, 0.25u Edgar 11/10

Davis/Doets - Really don't have a huge amount on Joe, but Kevin's shorter than 2/1 on. That doesn't seem unreasonable, he really ought to get past Joe comfortably enough, I've got the sense the line's accurate.

Gawlas/Vos - Adam's shorter than 2/1 on as well. Maybe that's a bit too soon, Gino's no mug, but Adam was a fair bit better than Vos was at Q-School, likely has the higher ceiling, so it doesn't seem out of line.

Edhouse/Mol - We've got a bit of data on Damian and it doesn't look good, not really in Ritchie's league at all. 1/3 I think is close enough, if it was a bit closer then I'd definitely look at a bet on Edhouse, but I can't see Damian realising even 25% of wins.

(2) Leitinger/Sedlacek - Karel's even shorter than Edhouse is. With these being card holders, we can actually do some extrapolation, and it's saying 80/20 to Sedlacek. Simple enough no bet.

(3) Pipe/Humphries - Big clash of styles here, but may be a tough one for either player to edge. Recent games say it's another flip, longer data says 60-65% win chances for Cool Hand, and that's more or less bang on the odds we're offered, so let's move on.

Jones/Taylor - Another one sided game in the market with Jake being priced at 1/3. Dom wasn't too far off Jake on the averages, and it's a name I've seen a bit more than Jake, so maybe there's a bit of value here? 0.1u Taylor 12/5, get a bit more funking power going on, I really can't see Jake being that good that he should be that short.

Hudson/de Vreede - Pete didn't average that much more than Ryan at Q-School, but it was enough, and he's got the card, and has had the card before. Still ends up being priced fairly closely, if Ryan (who's been about) was a bit longer I could certainly see it being worth a nibble, but 13/8 just isn't tempting enough.

Brown/Carlin - Carlin's been around for a while and was very close to getting his card straight back, and the back end of his tour card run translates to being slightly better than what John's done so far. Market sadly agrees, pricing Gavin at 4/5, so no bet.

(2) Murray/Kciuk - Interesting match up between improving card holders, and over the long haul they can't be separated. Maybe Ryan is all the better for getting a bit more stage experience that Krzysztof hasn't got yet. The market gives Ryan a small edge, 55/45 or so, that's fair enough, let's carry on to the last game.

(3) Evetts/Webster - Market can't split the two. Ted has the tiniest of tiny edges. Both players in the region of the best not to make the worlds. Maybe there's tiny value on Darren, he's ever so slightly odds against, but it's just not enough of an advantage. It's not like Darren did anything last week to get us excited.

Conditional games coming up soon.

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