Saturday, 6 March 2021

UK Open Round 5 bets

Ah, that evening was much better, picking up a solid set of results, Smith managing to come from behind against Cullen being the highlight, Razma also doing similar against Evans, and the longshot stab of Woodhouse also coming through. No huge shocks, we did have two of the automatic four main stage picks lose but neither Chisnall > Wright or van Duijvenbode > Anderson can really be described as a shock, I suppose the only one is White < Evans, I do wonder if Ian is damaged at this stage and is never going to get back to where he was two years ago. Odd, there's a couple of other players I can think of (Durrant, Beaton) who may also have already seen their best days, in any case I think White may now finally be out of our circle of betting trust, which is getting rapidly smaller given some of its members have binked big and lost the value (de Sousa, Clayton), leaving maybe just Ratajski and Noppert at this stage.

Still, sixteen games today, let's go:

Waites/Petersen - Could be fairly close this one. Market has Petersen as a favourite, but not by much. I've got it exactly even for all intents and purposes, which isn't quite enough with Scott at 13/10.

Cross/Wade - Rob was a bit lucky to get away with one against Hammer yesterday but got through and will need to step it up against James, who was pushed all the way by Ryan Joyce. Looks about 2-1 in favour of the Machine as I see it, that probably wouldn't be enough on its own, but more recent samples push it to 70%, and given performances in round 4, I can go 0.25u Wade 4/6.

Price/Evans - Not a great deal to write about this one. Gerwyn should take this very comfortably, it looks a tad more one sided than the 2/7 we can get on Price, but not by that much that we can consider betting him. If you want to put Gerwyn as a banker, then go ahead.

Rydz/Kleermaker - Good opportunity for both here, neither can complain too much about the draw. Callan's a near 2-1 favourite in the market, it might be closer to 3-1 where I look from. I think I can pass it as both players looked a bit sluggish in the previous game (although Rydz did look fine against Ross Smith, that said Martijn was good against Schindler), which I think increases the amount of variance and number of games where Martijn sticks around for long enough to maybe bink it.

Dobey/Brown - Chris was solid enough against Hendo, while Brown's game against McGeeney was a bit swingy but he got ahead early, and the swings were as to how much the lead was. Think Brown's run ends here, Dobey at 4/11 is actually fairly close to value, I just wonder where exactly the confidence is at given he's not had a really decent performance since, well, last year when he had that game with Ratajski.

Jacques/Hopp - Peter's been a bit of a surprise package so far, great scoring in round two, got a free win where he didn't need to do much in round three, then came through a great purists battle against Boulton. Hopp was able to get past a slightly misfiring O'Connor then win a high quality affair against van der Voort. Projections actually have this even - Hopp leads in the overall scoring by about 2-3 points since the Matchplay based on Jacques having a fair few worse legs when losing, but given Peter looks like that's not in play as much this weekend, 0.25u Jacques 21/10, certainly seems a closer game than that.

van Gerwen/Suljovic - Mensur was fine against Bialecki, van Gerwen was fine against Mitchell, even if it didn't look like it, think much of it was Scott doing weird things. Sure, Mensur's not exactly going to rattle through the legs, so maybe MvG looks less than peak again, even if the numbers are fine. 0.1u Suljovic 7/2, this seems more like a 65/35 game on the numbers so I'll take a stab at Mensur here. Not like we're doing it with a complete nobody who's never beaten MvG before who didn't average 99 in the last round.

Clayton/van Duijvenbode - Ooh, this should be fun. Dirk edged Ando in a real back and forth game, Clayton was pushed a bit by Rowby but looked comfortable enough in the end. Think that 8/11 Clayton is the correct spot, it's ever so slightly tighter than that in the actual market, but no Ferret value.

Labanauskas/Whitlock - Both slipping under the radar so far, despite Darius drawing Ashton and getting bizarre levels of shoutouts on the comms during that game, last round he got a favourable draw against Webster, didn't do too much wrong, Webster just hitting high 80's which couldn't handle with Darius' level of play. Whitlock was a bit too classy against Sedlacek, who'd had a good run prior to that, not dropping a leg. Seems like 65/35 to Simon on the projections, he's 4/7, seems close enough.

Humphries/Searle - This ought to be a good one, two players who are pushing up towards the top 32, one who's already made the break through and binked at Pro Tour level, one who's still waiting, but both of whom have made good TV runs in the past and could do so here. Luke took a tight game against Huybrechts where both played great, Searle averaged 103 in a 10-7 win over Adrian Lewis. Should be very close, the market has it evens, I'm actually seeing Luke with a 55/45 advantage oddly enough, that's not quite enough for me to really go with it given how Ryan played yesterday.

Smith/de Sousa - Another great game which we will get on the main stage, both winning deciders on board two yesterday which, as usual, was much better than the main stage once the big guns came in. Fairly similar analysis to the previous game - the market has it even, but I've got one player (de Sousa) having a small 55 to 45 edge. Again will pass, Smith's form seems to be ticking upwards.

Soutar/Meulenkamp - Alan's been the standout player so far from the earlier rounds and looks pretty dangerous having beaten two Lakeside champions already, while Meulenkamp's been a bit better than of late, taking out Eddie Lovely then getting into a solid lead early against Lennon, who started slowly and picked up but had too much work to do, seemingly using everything to get it back to parity. Soutar is priced at 4/6, which doesn't look too unreasonable, maybe it could have been 4/7, not enough edge to punt it.

Woodhouse/Dolan - Mentioned Luke taking Dimitri out earlier, solid 95 clip in a 10-5 win, Dolan showed an equally competent game in dispatching a gritty Kai Fan Leung by a three leg margin. Market thinks this is flippy with Brendan having the small advantage, I've got this the other way around, but there is a big consistency disparity which is leading me towards not taking Luke here. Wouldn't take much drift for me to go with it though.

Chisnall/Noppert - Dave averaged a ton in putting Peter Wright away in a game that was never close, Noppie got ahead big early on Durrant, who tried to come back a bit but ran out of runway and went down 10-6. Seems like a Chizzy 8/11 line would be correct, and he's actually a little bit shorter than that. 9/5 is tempting, but Dave has finally started getting big wins on TV, so maybe I can resist firing on Danny here.

Gurney/Clemens - Daryl was made to work in a good standard game against Jason Lowe that was only decided by the one break, while Gabriel was far too good for Adam Hunt, who could never really get a foothold in the game. Appears extremely tight on paper with Daryl maybe having the better side of a 10/11 projection, that's exactly what we're being offered.

Ratajski/Razma - Final games sees Krzysztof, who again had a great game on board 2 with both him and Nathan averaging over 100, while Razma needed to come from behind against David Evans. This should be a fairly comfortable win for Ratajski, who I see as having just over a two in three chance to take it and move to the last sixteen, the market gives him at 2/5 which looks about right.

So all in all not much there, just the two standard punts and then a small lay MvG flier. Back after round five with last sixteen thoughts.

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