Saturday, 6 March 2021

Round 6 tips

Down to sixteen players and eight matches, both the main tips came through, missed out on Suljovic over van Gerwen but couldn't do too much about that one, although I was a bit excited at 3-1. Don't think there were any huge shocks, or any shocks for that matter, the only one I suppose being Kleermaker over Rydz, but that wasn't a big one in any case. Let's project round 6:

de Sousa/van Gerwen - There's really very, very little to split between the two on the stats. de Sousa actually projects to win more often, but van Gerwen has the higher overall scoring, as there's next to nothing between his winning/losing scoring, whereas there's a bit of a gap for Jose (although he's still consistent enough that it's below the database average). Will almost certainly be taking Jose to pull the upset.

Petersen/Jacques - How far can the Jacques run go? Probably ends here, Devon's a cut above who he's played to date, should probably claim this two times out of three, and has looked very steady, not being troubled much at all.

Clemens/Wade - Spicy one this, but relegated to stage 2 - for once I can't really disagree with the stage 1 picks. Clemens has had no issues to date, Wade had a bit of a tough time in round 4, but was able to pull away from Cross earlier today. Looks about 60/40 in favour of Wadey here, Gabriel definitely got a good shot but James has the edge.

Humphries/Kleermaker - Probably only one of two games that you think are auto-board two games (the next one's the other), Luke has been throwing very close to his best stuff throughout and gets another player outside of the top 32 here, while Martijn's just been quietly doing the business while never really hitting the peaks in terms of averages. Should be really comfortable for Luke, I'm projecting over 80%, he's a clear five points in scoring ahead of Martijn whichever way you look at it.

Dolan/Whitlock - Good opportunity for both, feels like it should be close on paper after Brendan was able to end the run of Luke Woodhouse and Simon edged a nail biter against Darius Labanauskas. Looks like Simon has a small advantage, more than 55%, not quite 60%.

Dobey/Price - Chris rattled off ten straight to end the John Brown fairytale, while Price was never really troubled by Ricky Evans. Probably the biggest test for Gerwyn yet, key thing will be whether he can step up the gears if needed. Looks like it's about a 2-1 matchup in the Welshman's favour, Dobey is definitely live here, although whether he's able to realise what'd be the biggest win of his career is another question.

Ratajski/Clayton - Amazing game this one's going to be. Krzysztof was pushed pretty hard by Madars Razma, while Clayton made van Duijvenbode look ordinary with a 108 average. Nice arrows. Model can't split the two, seems bang on 50/50.

Chisnall/Soutar - Dave continued good play with a 104 average to pull away from the ever dangerous Danny Noppert at the end and win 10-7, while Soutar continued his remarkable run and defeated Ron Meulenkamp by the same score. Probably ends here, Alan's gone 92, 92 and 93 in three of his games by conventional averages with just the one big one against Mansell, he's going to need that against Dave really. 70/30 in favour of Chizzy for me.

Will edit with bets once oddschecker stops fucking around thinking that the Suljovic game is still in play.

Bets:

0.1u de Sousa 5/2
0.25u Humphries 2/5
0.25u Ratajski 6/4

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